Boise Real Estate Market Report For August 2020

How Low Can We Go? 

The Boise real estate market saw another month of record low inventory and record high prices in August.  The lack of inventory is unprecedented and given the seemingly insatiable demand it is no surprise that prices continue to set new records every month.  While we have been living in a similar scenario for the last few years, with the advent of COVID-19 and the resulting changes in how and where people can live and work, places like Boise, that were already desirable for their relatively low prices and good quality of life, have exploded in popularity.  The in-migration from places like California, Washington, and Oregon continues to surge as more people pull the trigger on making a move away from high priced, disaster prone areas aided by COVID fears and the increasing acceptance of remote working.  A recent article from NPR uses the term “Zoom Towns” to describe areas, typically resort towns and other areas seen as “safe havens”, where the combination of low interest rates, a large number of millennials reaching homebuying age,  and employers allowing or even encouraging remote working arrangements is leading to a sharp increase in demand while current homeowners are reluctant to sell and a relative lack of new construction is pinching supply in a “perfect storm” scenario.  Boise, while not typically seen as a resort town, seems to fit into the Zoom Town mold because of its proximity to outdoor activities, high quality of life, and relative affordability.

The numbers are  pretty clear cut.  While the number of closed sales (1361) was up 18.7% in August versus a year ago, the number of homes for sale was down 61.1% to 717.  That means inventory currently stands at 0.5 months, the lowest I have ever seen it…by far. Remember, 6 months of inventory is considered a stable market, and anything under 3 months is considered a strong seller’s market. And at least for the short term we can expect more of the same.  Pending sales are up 41.3%, a good indicator of future closings.  Not surprisingly the situation is even more extreme in the lower price points.  There was only one home available under $200K in Ada County last month, but looking at all homes up to $299,999, there was only 0.2 months of inventory.  Even the top end of the market, which typically has much higher levels of inventory and a slower rate of sales, is feeling the crunch.  For homes over $700,000 there was 1.4 months of inventory and for homes from $500,000-699,999 there was only 0.4 months.

Since there is “nothing” to buy, prices for what little inventory there is have continued to surge into record territory.  The average price per square foot in the Boise real estate market in August was $202 (+12.2%).  Meanwhile the average sales price jumped 14% vs 2019 to $448,000. It seems paradoxical with layoffs and unemployment running rampant and many businesses, small and large, closing that we are in the midst of an historic housing boom in Boise.  But many of those suffering job losses were not likely homebuyers and many of the out of state buyers that are relocating here are either able to work remotely or are moving using the proceeds from a home sale elsewhere even if they don’t currently have a job lined up here. I am also hearing of people pulling the trigger on retiring early so the job market is not a real factor in their decision on where to relocate. Boise has become a popular retirement destination in the last 20 years and will likely remain a desirable location for active retirees. For the most part this is uncharted territory, so it will be interesting to see how it all settles out after COVID.  Many feel the true economic impacts of the pandemic are yet to come but it is hard to say how much impact that will have on the Boise housing market.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1361 +18.7 100 717 -61.1 100 $202 +12.2 $448K +14.0 33 0.0 0.5
New Construction 432 +32.9 31.7 395 -51.8 55.1 $203 +9.1 $461K +8.5 62 +8.8 0.9

 

Canyon County 653 +18.7 100 295 -61.4 100 $167 +9.2 $337K +18.2 35 +9.4 0.5

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions.  Stay well and be safe! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on September 13, 2020 at 3:49 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2020

Home Sales Rebound Sharply from 2 Month COVID-19 Slump

Homes sales in the Boise real estate market seem to be on a roller coaster.  Sales were increasing moderately through March and then dropped sharply in April (-17.4%) and May (-29.1%) presumably due to COVID related factors.  As the state gradually progressed through the re-opening process sales took off and while up a modest 3.6% in June, this represents a positive swing of over 30% in one month. But the bigger story is that while demand continues to be extremely strong, supply is critically low.  We have been in a strong seller’s market with near record low inventory and market times for the last 2 years or so but in June the number of homes for sale dropped 36.7% versus a year ago.  More homes sold in June (1237) than are currently for sale (1158) meaning that inventory is below one month—0.9 months to be exact. Looking back I could only find one other time in the last several years that inventory in the Boise real estate market has fallen below one month. This coupled with an average days on market of 33 days makes it very difficult for many buyers to find a home in the current market. As the number of COVID cases increases and some cities and possibly the state consider scaling back on re-opening plans it remains to be seen if sales will take another hit.

Prices have responded to the critically low supply as expected and were in record territory in June.  Even during the 2 months that sales suffered due to COVID, prices continued to increase but in June the average price per square foot was up 12.5% versus 2019 tying the record set in May of $198/ square foot. The average sale price also increased sharply, rising 8.4% to $427K, a new record. While I have mentioned a looming affordability issue in our market in the past, in June affordability concerns did not hold the market back.  There seem to be plenty of buyers with the ability to pay even as prices break new records almost every month.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1237 +3.6 100 1158 -36.7 100 $198 +12.5 $427K +8.4 33 0 0.9
Distressed (REO or Short Sale) 1 0 0.1 1 -66.7 0.1 $139 -25.3 $265K -8.3 30 +114.3 1.0
New Construction 376 +24.9 30.4 638 -26.6 55.1 $198 +7.6 $466K +8.4 64 -7.2 1.7

 

Canyon County 568 +7.8 100 457 -38.7 100 $165 +15.4 $317K +15.7 33 0 0.8

 

I would expect some degree of volatility, at least on the volume side, to continue as we remain in uncharted territory with regards to COVID and the longer term economic impacts.  If a recession as severe as is predicted does take hold one would assume that there will be some pressure on real estate prices in our market as well but based on past performance I can’t say that with any certainty. Stay well and be safe! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on July 10, 2020 at 1:56 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2020

Boise Real Estate Volume and Prices Both Sizzle in January 

You probably have already seen the headlines in the local media about home prices reaching a new record high in January. While it makes for good headlines and is no doubt true, is it really news? Not if you have been following the market either with or without the help of this report.  Our market bottomed out from the Great Recession approximately 9 years ago and since the 2nd quarter of 2011 has seen steadily climbing prices and strong volume.  While I don’t recall the exact month where we not only eclipsed the high price points from the previous boom but also set a new record, suffice it to say it was years ago—2017 or 2018.  Since then the market has continued to grow and prices have continued to go up steadily, meaning that with very few exceptions we reach a new record high for prices every month. Noteworthy but hardly breaking news.  The real headlines will come when we see a month when prices actually drop.  Well, if January is any indication, we may be waiting awhile for that to happen.

The average sold price for Boise real estate in January was $405,000 a 12.2% increase from 2019 and a new record, don’t you know! Meanwhile the average price per square foot rose 7.5% to $186 (actually not a record—it was $191 in December). And volume, which in most of 2019 seem to be constrained by a dearth of available existing homes for sale, surged 25.4% ahead of last January with 780 homes sold.  New construction led the charge with 308 homes sold (+41.3%) and represented 39.5% of all homes sold and 66.7% of all homes for sale. Inventory continues to be extremely low at 1.6 months although the average days on market (58) is actually 16% higher than last January. The trends in Canyon County are fairly similar.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 780 +25.4 100 1221 -18.3 100 $186 +7.5 $406K +12.2 58 +16.0 1.6
New Construction 308 +41.3 39.5 815 -14.7 66.7 $193 +7.8 $444K +7.5 84 +25.4 2.6

 

Canyon County 337 +17.8 100 695 +11.7 100 $152 +10.9 $290K +13.3 48 +2.0 2.1

On January 30 Windermere was honored to host our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, who in what has become an annual event,  gave an excellent presentation on the Economic and Housing Outlook for 2020 both for the nation and the local market.  While he had lots of positive things to say about our local economy and housing market he also cautioned that affordability is becoming a real problem.  Those of you who follow this report know that I have expressed my concerns about affordability for well over a year and Matthew’s data serves to emphasize this issue.  His slides are very informative and I am happy to share them in PDF form with anyone who is interested.  The file is rather large so I am not including it here since many email servers limit the size allowed, but if you would like to see his presentation slides please contact me and I will arrange to get them to you.  Another look at affordability from the 30,000 foot level and not just related to housing can be found in this recent article in the Atlantic.  It argues that in what is hailed by some as the best US Economy in decades American families continue to be bled dry and it is only the corporations and the super wealthy that are truly benefitting.  So much for trickle down economics!

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2019

Homes Sales Up Slightly in September But There’s A Catch… 

The number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market was up slightly in September versus a year ago, seemingly bucking the recent trend of declining sales.  There were 967 closed sales in Ada County (+0.9% vs 2018) but looking back also reveals that September 2018 was a particularly slow month bracketed by relatively strong sales in both August and October.  Looking at the results on a quarterly basis provides a more realistic view of the market in this case and sales for the most recent 3 months are off 2.5% year to year.  Also telling is the fact that sales from August to September of this year dropped 14.5%, although much of that can be attributed to the normal seasonal drop off in sales heading into fall.  Inventory continues to be near historic lows at 1.9 months while the average days on market is up 5.9% to 36, also still near historic lows.

Several people have asked why I pay so much attention to sales trends when all they really care about are price trends.  “Is my house going up in value or going down?”  “As a buyer am I going to pay less if I buy now or wait?” are the most common questions I hear.  Well, typically prices are influenced by supply and demand and market trends in those areas generally are good predictors of future pricing trends.  Prices tend to lag somewhat in real estate, so a drop in sales (demand) and/or an increase in inventory (supply) may not be reflected in sales prices for several months.  For example,  Boise real estate has been slowing volume wise for most of this year but prices continue to rise much faster than is sustainable. The rate has dropped off somewhat from the scorching 15%+ annual increases we saw in 2016-18 but we are still flirting with double digit increases now even as volume is flat to down.  In September the average price per square foot in the Boise market was $180, up 7.8% and tied for the record high set last month.  The average sale price meanwhile was up 13.2% to $395,000 or $46,000 higher than one year ago. The obvious conclusion here is that demand is not the problem, the supply of available homes, especially “affordable” ones, continues to be the biggest barrier to market sales growth.  The average list price of homes for sale in the Boise real estate market is currently $504,000– not affordable for most buyers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 967 +0.9 100 1858 -4.4 100 $180 +7.8 $395K +13.2 36 +5.9 1.9
New Construction 278 +9.9 28.7 915 +3.9 49.2 $186 +7.5 $423K +6.8 61 -1.6 3.3

 

Canyon County 471 +20.8 100 884 +17.4 100 $147 +7.3 $282K +11.0 30 +20.0 1.9

 

Barring any unexpected macro-economic or political changes I believe we can expect more of the same in the Boise real estate market in the near future.  Continued in-migration (not just from California!), a relatively strong economy, and very low interest rates will continue to drive the demand side while our struggles with adequate supply of affordable options for buyers will also likely continue. New construction continues to outperform the market as a whole but don’t necessarily help the affordability issue as the price points on newly built homes are typical higher than for resale.  Please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions.

Mark your calendars!

Windermere is fortunate to be able to bring our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise for the 3rd year in a row to give a presentation on the Idaho Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020.  He will be speaking at JUMP! On January 30th.  I will have a limited number of tickets for those that contact me. Corporate sponsorships are also available for reserving tables. In the past this has been a great event! Please let me know if you are interested in attending. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on October 9, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2018

Sales Continue to Slide but Prices at Record Level 

The Boise Real Estate Market in December was marked by sharply falling sales and sharply rising prices.  An odd couple to say the least. December’s 14.8% decline was the fourth in the last five months and sales for the most recent quarter combined are off 10.5% versus last year. Also for the 2nd straight month, after literally years of declines, the number of homes for sale was up 5.7% and pending sales, an indicator of future market activity were off 5.1%. Normally this would be bad news for sellers and at some point this will likely be the case, but for now prices seem unaffected by the drop in sales and are at record or near record levels. The average price per square foot was up 17% to $172/sf., a new record.  Meanwhile the average sales price was $363,000 (+16% )second only to the $368,000 recorded in August.  Even as the trend of declining sales has deepened the rate at which prices are rising has accelerated.  In November the average price per square foot and average sales price were up 12.3% and 13.6% respectively.

Conventional wisdom would say that a drop in sales is somehow a result of a drop in demand and that at some point prices should reflect that.  Until recently though it seemed a lack of supply was the primary market force keeping sales in check.  The demand was there but there was nothing to buy.  Now although inventory is still very low by historical standards we are seeing the number of homes for sale rise compared to a year ago with no apparent effects on the upward march of prices…so far.  Current inventory based on the rates of homes selling stands at 2.2 months the highest in almost a year, while the average days on market is 41 a 4.7% decline from last year. As a reminder, 6 months of inventory and 60 days on market are widely seen as indicative of a stable or “neutral” market as far as how much leverage buyers and sellers have.  So we are still in a strong seller’s market despite the sharp drop in sales. Continued in migration, stabilizing interest rates, and a generally strong local economy and job market seem to be enough to keep the party going.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER  2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 750 -14.8 100 1640 +5.7 100 $172 +17.0 $363K +16.0 41 -4.7 2.2
New Construction 256 +11.3 34.1 1019 +14.0 62.1 $175 +10.1 $413K +9.0 57 +1.8 4.0

 

Canyon County 312 -9.0 100 641 -14.5 100 $136 +13.3 $250K +16.3 38 -9.5 2.1

One other area in the latest Boise real estate market numbers worth pointing out is the role of new construction in the current mix of homes for sale and being sold.  While overall sales were down 14.8%, sales of new homes ( not including custom build jobs) were up 11.3% and the number of new homes for sale jumped 14% versus last year. The 256 new homes sold in December was 34.1% of all homes sold while the 1019 new homes for sale represented 62.1% of all homes listed. Without new construction the market would be in serious trouble on the supply side.  For example, sales of pre-owned homes were off 24% in December and 10.5% for the most recent quarter.  This may be helping boost prices as newly constructed homes tend to be priced above the overall market average.  Currently the average price per square foot for new construction is $175 (vs $170 for re-sale homes), while the average sales price for a newly built home is $413,000 (vs. $337,000 for re-sale).

Based on what is happening in other markets around the country and predictions for a nationwide economic slowdown and possible recession in the coming months, I still believe that the current double digit price increases are unsustainable and we will see a gradual flattening of the price curve in the coming months.  Supply for the time being will likely stay pretty tight even with all the new construction occurring because there hasn’t been a strong enough trigger to get existing homeowners to sell.  Many who would like to sell and take a profit are worried that they won’t be able to find a replacement home that meets their needs and their budget.  Until sellers feel like they may be missing out on peak pricing if they don’t sell we will continue to see very few existing homes on the market compared to historical averages.

Please feel free to contact me with you comments and questions. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 15, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2018

May Was Another Hot Month For Boise Real Estate

It’s starting to sound like a broken record when I report that the Boise real estate market has broken another record. But it just keeps happening. May saw record high prices yet again.  The average price per square foot jumped to $164, up $3 from April and up $21 (14.7%)  from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price also set a record at $345,000.  This is up $4,000 from April and $47,000 (+15.8%) for the year. Sellers are not only in the driver’s seat, they are in the fast lane.

The cause of these record breaking prices is no secret and has been the case for many months—extremely low inventory and very high demand. Boise continues to be “discovered” as a great place to live with good job growth and reasonable costs of living compared to our west coast neighbors.  Boise seems to make just about every list for desirability of late and people are moving here.  That coupled with few existing owners leaving or listing their homes has put us in a pinch.  While closed sales (1242) rose 12.7% in May, available inventory (1323) was down 28.3% from a year ago.  If you notice those two numbers are pretty close together meaning homes are selling almost as fast as they come on the market.  Further indication of this is that we currently only have 1.1 months of inventory, which is probably also a record.  Builders are building as fast as they can and they are definitely having an impact.  334 new homes (listed in the MLS) sold in May up a whopping 51.8%.  This number represents 26.9% of all the homes sold while new home inventory accounted for 46.2% of all inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1242 +12.7 100 1323 -28.3 100 $164 +14.7 $345K +15.8 36 0.0 1.1
New Construction 334 +51.8 26.9 611 -23.0 46.2 $170 +14.1 $382K +13.0 80 -12.1 1.8

 

Canyon County 512 +8.5 100 539 -28.0 100 $126 +13.5 $229K +14.5 30 -14.3 1.1

Of course the big question is how long will the market be able to maintain the current pace?  The exact timing of market swings are pretty hard to predict but there are some signs that we may be getting close to either a slowdown or possibly even somewhat of a correction.  For one, we have seen prices rising for seven solid years in a row. Secondly, interest rates have risen modestly and there are indications they will rise further especially if inflation picks up. Thirdly, as prices continue to rise and inventory remains low more and more people will either get priced out of the market or simply give up looking.  This doesn’t seem to have deterred many of the cash heavy out of state buyers looking to move here.  Those buyers ability to make the move to Boise hinges on their ability to sell for a large profit in the current home markets, particularly the west coast.  There are some indications that those market maybe starting to slow down and that we could see a gradual trickledown effect if those market do in fact slow down.  One thing is for sure—real estate is both cyclical and local.  It’s not a matter of if the market will slow it’s when, and while what happens in other markets may have some effect here local factors have a much bigger impact.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments, and referrals.  You may have noticed that I did not break out the numbers for distressed properties this month.  In recent months the number of distressed properties in the Boise market has dropped so low there really is no significance to them other than merely reporting how low they are. I hope distressed properties continue to be statistically irrelevant for many years to come. Have a great summer!

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on June 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2018

Sales and Prices Continue Winter Surge 

The Boise real estate market had a second straight month of both double digit unit sales and price increases.  The number of closed sales in Ada County was up 22.6% in February to 679.  Part of the percentage increase can be attributed to the closing “hangover” from last year’s January “Snowmaggedon”.  But sales were also up 5.4% from the previous month when the effects of the weather on closings had not yet been felt. All in all a very strong showing considering year to year sales trends were negative in November and December.  At that time I attributed the slowdown to the lack of inventory, which is valid. But in February we managed to sell 22.6% more homes despite having 14.8% less inventory to choose from.  There were only 1231 active listings in February, which I believe is the lowest number since well before the last boom—nearly 15 years ago.  This translates into 1.8 months of inventory based on the current rate of sales and is the 12th straight month that inventory has been at 2 months or lower.  New construction is trying to fill the gap, and 33.9% of all homes sold in February were new, but there just aren’t enough houses out there to meet the current demand.

So you guessed it, prices are going through the roof. Prices have actually been increasing in the Boise real estate market since bottoming out in the 1st qtr of 2011, but for the most part at an orderly sustainable pace meaning in the 5-10% range annually.  In the last few months we have seen a substantial uptick in the rate at which prices are increasing.  The average sales price in February in Ada County was $339,000 up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ($154) was up 10.7%.  Not only are these both record levels but consider that we only just broke the $300K threshold for average sales price in June of last year and we are already at $339K.   I’m not using the “B word” yet but the market certainly seems to be headed in that direction.  The question is with demand so high how long will it take for enough people to get priced out of the market to cause a correction?  Hard to say especially since relatively cash rich buyers migrating here are a significant part of the buyer pool in our market. After all we were just named by Forbes as the fastest growing city in the country.

But ultimately we will need good job and wage growth and low interest rates, not just lifestyle,  to keep things going.  Unemployment is low, wage growth is solid although off a low base, and interest rates, while still low have creeped up recently.  And compared to other states our overall economy is kind of in the middle of the pack.  Business Insider recently ranked Idaho as the 20th best economy in the nation saying, “Idaho’s December 2017 unemployment rate of 2.9% was the seventh lowest in the country, and its nonfarm payroll job growth rate of 2.1% between December 2016 and December 2017 was the eighth highest. But Idaho had the second-lowest Q3 2017 GDP per capita of just $42,046, and the fifth-lowest December 2017 average weekly wage of $759.36.”

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 679 +22.6 100 1231 -14.8 100 $154 +10.7 $339K +17.3 61 -6.2 1.8
Non Distress 673 +24.4 99.1 1226 -13.8 99.6 $155 +10.7 $340K +17.2 60 -6.2 1.8
REO 3 -66.7 0.4 2 -84.6 0.2 $120 +7.1 $245K +13.4 46 +130.0 0.7
Short Sale 3 0 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $117 +4.5 $195K -31.3 108 -60.4 0.7
New Construction 230 +41.1 33.9 730 -11.8 59.3 $162 +8.7 $387K +11.8 88 -6.4 3.2

 

Canyon County 301 +36.8 100 545 -16.7 100 $117 +11.4 $215K +13.2 57 -5.0 1.8

 

Overall it remains a challenging time for buyers in a very strong Seller’s Market.  The normal spring influx of new listings to the market may provide some relief as will new construction but prices will likely continue to rise sharply as well. Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your questions and comments and please share this report with anyone you would like.  As always your referrals are the highest compliment.  Thanks! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

*All reports are published March 2018, based on data available at the end of February 2018. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on March 15, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2018

Sales Rise and Prices Explode in January

After two straight months of year over year sales declines, in January closed sales in Ada County were up 8.2% to 644.  While this is still well below the 851 homes sold in December, January is usually by far the slowest month of the year. Last year’s Snowmageddon may have had some impact on sales in the latter part of January 2017 but the main negative effects on sales were in February and early March.  Regardless, January’s numbers are strong especially when you consider that the inventory of available homes was down 12.7% from a year ago. While the average days on market crept up a bit to 47 days this was still 14.5% lower than 2017 and the total months of inventory based on the current rate of sales was a very tight 2.0.  New construction continues to provide much needed inventory. In January 63.5% of all homes available were newly constructed or under construction while there were 171 closed sales (+27.6%).

While prices have been rising steadily for years in response to the high demand and low inventory, in January prices exploded.  The average price per square foot hit $153, a new record and a 15% increase from last January and a 4.1% increase in just one month from December 2017.  The average sales price hit $326K,  also a new record, $12,000 (+3.8% ) above December 2017 and a whopping 22.6% above January of last year.  As with closed sales, the winter weather may have had some impact last year especially towards the end of the month but I think most of this year’s surge in prices is due to the fundamental market forces of very low inventory coupled with very high demand.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 644 +8.2 100 1271 -12.7 100 $153 +15.0 $326K +22.6 47 -14.5 2.0
Non Distress 638 +10.0 99.1 1264 -12.2 99.5 $153 +14.2 $327K +21.6 47 -13.0 2.0
REO 4 -71.4 0.6 2 -71.4 0.2 $132 +33.3 $248K +41.7 41 -42.3 0.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0.0 4 -60.0 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0
New Construction 171 +27.6 26.6 807 -6.9 63.5 $161 +7.3 $385K +17.0 63 -22.2 4.7

 

Canyon County 269 +35.2 100 624 -13.8 100 $114 +11.8 $223K +21.2 48 -12.7 2.3

As mentioned last month, the new tax law could have some impact on our real estate market as the allowable deductions have changed.  Most of the changes will be largely unnoticed here though as compared to higher priced areas and because of how high demand is currently.  Also in the news is the revelation that after years of reports that Millennials  were not as likely to purchase a home as previous generations because they value experiences over things, now the analysts are saying the opposite:  the nationwide housing boom is being driven by first time home buyers primarily Millennials.

A couple other tidbits: we reached somewhat of a milestone in January in that for the first time since at least the end of the previous upcycle in 2007, there were 0, read: ZERO short sales in Ada County in January.  While 4 REO (bank owned) properties did close, “distressed” sales as a whole only represented six tenths of one percent of the market.  Compare that to the roughly 50% figure when the market bottomed out in 2010-11.  We’ve come a long way baby!

Secondly, for those of you who were fortunate enough to see Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner when he spoke in Boise last fall, or who have in interest in the statewide real estate market, you may want to take a look at his latest report on the Idaho real estate market for the 4th quarter of 2017. Click HERE to view the report.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your comments and questions and remember I am never too busy for your referrals. And whether you ski or not, don’t forget to Pray for Snow! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 16, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For September 2017

Inventory Squeeze Continues and Prices Surge

The Boise real estate market remained a strong Seller’s market in September even as the normal seasonal trend towards the slower winter months continued.  While closed sales in September (1099) were 10% below August, they were up 2.3% vs. September 2016. Furthermore the number of homes for sale (2098) was down 10.9% from a year ago and inventory remained below 2 months for the 7th straight month.  Home continue to sell quickly—the average days on market was 35.  This figure has been at 36 days or lower for the last four months after being as high as 65 days as recently as February. You will recall that 60 days is considered a stable neutral market.

Prices through most of the recent strong seller’s market have remained mostly in check, meaning increases were generally sustainable given current inflation and wage growth. In the last few months things seem to be heating up with regards to prices. We are far from the dreaded bubble and the underlying foundation of the market is much different than in the past but it does bear watching.  My general rule is that annual price gains of 10% or more over a period of several months or longer are not sustainable.  The average price per square foot at $149 was up 11.2% from 2016 while the average sales price ($304K) was up 8.6%. These numbers have been hovering on either side of the 10% mark for the last few months but as prices continue to rise affordability will drop meaning buyers get less house for their money and some leave the ranks of buyers all together by being priced out.  Income growth at 3-4% annually isn’t keeping up, and unlike in the previous strong market when buyers simply borrowed more to cover the gap, lending and underwriting is much stricter now so the chances of a full on bubble are much lower.  Eventually though dwindling affordability will be a catalyst for a market slow down which may come as soon as next year or hold off until what some predict will be a widespread recession in 2019. A Wall Street Journal Article on October 2nd with the headline “Cracks in the Housing Rally”  starts out saying, “The post crisis home price recovery is beginning to look vulnerable”.  The article cites slowing housing sales and starts on a national scale and goes on to say that household formation is slumping and affordability is being pressured by low wage growth and rising (still very low) interest rates. Some of these national trends certainly hold true for our market although real estate is primarily influenced by local factors.  One positive factor in our market that is not true nationally is continued strong in-migration from the west coast of people seeking quality of life and affordable (for them) housing. That may serve to keep the market going longer than would otherwise be true.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1099 +2.3 100 2098 -10.9 100 $149 +11.2 $304K +8.6 35 -27.1 1.9
Non Distress 1093 +3.1 99.5 2090 -9.6 99.6 $149 +10.4 $304K +8.2 35 -25.5 1.9
REO 3 -50.0 0.3 2 -90.0 0.1 $98 +12.6 $162K -48.2 38 -20.8 0.7
Short Sale 1 -83.3 0.1 6 -71.4 0.3 $103 -5.5 $322K +70.4 16 -94.5 6.0
New Construction 239 +1.7 21.7 810 -3.1 38.6 $162 +11.0 $364K +10.0 64 -34.7 3.4

 

Canyon County 441 +8.9 100 989 -3.5 100 $117 +10.4 $210K +11.7 32 -25.6 2.2

Please feel free to contact me with any questions and comments.  Have a great fall!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Posted on October 16, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

The Gardner Report–Idaho Real Estate Report for 2nd Quarter 2017

Windermere economist Matthew Gardner recently released a very informative report on the Idaho real estate market.  While it confirms what most of us already know–that inventory is tight and prices are rising, it contains some surprising nuggets as well.  Concise and easy to read it is well worth a look.  Here is a link to the complete report: The Gardner Report-Idaho

Or you can print or download as a PDF file:The Gardner Report-Idaho PDF

 

Posted on August 8, 2017 at 2:30 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,