Boise Real Estate Market Report For September 2020

As Prices Skyrocket Affordability Becomes Bigger Concern 

Record low inventory and very high demand continued to send Boise real estate prices soaring in September with no short term changes in sight.  But affordability is also suffering and may spell trouble down the road.  Closed sales in the Boise real estate market in September (1307) were up 34.3% vs September 2019 while the number of homes for sale was almost 70% lower than at this time last year.  Average days on market dropped to a record low of 26 days and based on the current rate of sales we have just 0.4 months of inventory.  While new construction sales were up 41.6% this was not enough to significantly relieve the pressure on inventory, although if you exclude new construction the average days on market drops to 16 and the available inventory is only 0.3 months.  To put it in perspective average days on market of 60 days and 4-6 months of inventory is considered a stable market. No matter how you slice it we are in an unprecedented seller’s market. Another example of this was highlighted in an article in The Idaho Statesman earlier this week describing how desperate buyers are forgoing home inspections and appraisal contingencies in order to compete with multiple offers on virtually every house available. Both these strategies carry enormous risk for buyers—risks they are forced to take to be successful in the current market.

The average price per square foot jumped 15.2% to a record high $212 while the average sales price jumped 19% year over year to $470K, also a record.  The combination of record low interest rates and an continued influx of cash rich out of state buyers has kept demand very high despite the lack of inventory.  A couple of factors may be discouraging existing homeowners from selling exacerbating the inventory shortage.  First with record low interest rates, many existing homeowners have been able to re-finance and drop their rates 25% or more and have chosen to do so rather than sell.  Also many homeowners (myself included) have come to realize that with prices as high as they are they literally couldn’t afford to by a comparable home in the market today, let alone trade up.  Even those looking to downsize are finding that their options are both few and more expensive than they can afford. As Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner warns in a recent report, this may be leading us closer to an affordability crisis.  In the Boise real estate market, this is already starting to happen.  As shown above, the average sales price is up 19% in the last year while wages are growing in the 3-4% range.  While this doesn’t necessarily affect cash buyers, it is putting the pinch on those buyers trying to qualify for a mortgage.  If they can’t afford to pay more they look for other ways to stay in the game like waiving contingencies ,as mentioned above. Matthew also points out that if interest rates begin to rise (they can’t go much lower) then the buying power of those seeking financing will diminish even more quickly.  He says a rate increase of 1% roughly equates to a 10% drop in the price a typical buyer can afford.  As long as the rates stay low and there are lots of cash buyers out there the demand for homes in our market may not be affected that much but when rates inevitably rise we may see a real shift in the market dynamics.  Something to keep an eye out for—similar to a bubble but with different root causes than the one we saw in 2006-2007. Of course, other “macro” factors such as COVID may also have an impact but as we saw this spring, at least in our market, the initial reaction to the pandemic was no more than a short lived blip on the radar.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1307 +34.3 100 573 -69.2 100 $212 +15.2 $470K +19.0 26 -27.8 0.4
New Construction 395 +41.6 30.2 338 -63.1 60.0 $204 +9.7 $458 +8.3 50 -18.0 0.9

 

Canyon County 563 +19.5 100 199 -77.5 100 $171 +15.5 $343K +21.6 24 -20.0 0.4

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and thanks for reading! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on October 14, 2020 at 1:10 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For August 2020

How Low Can We Go? 

The Boise real estate market saw another month of record low inventory and record high prices in August.  The lack of inventory is unprecedented and given the seemingly insatiable demand it is no surprise that prices continue to set new records every month.  While we have been living in a similar scenario for the last few years, with the advent of COVID-19 and the resulting changes in how and where people can live and work, places like Boise, that were already desirable for their relatively low prices and good quality of life, have exploded in popularity.  The in-migration from places like California, Washington, and Oregon continues to surge as more people pull the trigger on making a move away from high priced, disaster prone areas aided by COVID fears and the increasing acceptance of remote working.  A recent article from NPR uses the term “Zoom Towns” to describe areas, typically resort towns and other areas seen as “safe havens”, where the combination of low interest rates, a large number of millennials reaching homebuying age,  and employers allowing or even encouraging remote working arrangements is leading to a sharp increase in demand while current homeowners are reluctant to sell and a relative lack of new construction is pinching supply in a “perfect storm” scenario.  Boise, while not typically seen as a resort town, seems to fit into the Zoom Town mold because of its proximity to outdoor activities, high quality of life, and relative affordability.

The numbers are  pretty clear cut.  While the number of closed sales (1361) was up 18.7% in August versus a year ago, the number of homes for sale was down 61.1% to 717.  That means inventory currently stands at 0.5 months, the lowest I have ever seen it…by far. Remember, 6 months of inventory is considered a stable market, and anything under 3 months is considered a strong seller’s market. And at least for the short term we can expect more of the same.  Pending sales are up 41.3%, a good indicator of future closings.  Not surprisingly the situation is even more extreme in the lower price points.  There was only one home available under $200K in Ada County last month, but looking at all homes up to $299,999, there was only 0.2 months of inventory.  Even the top end of the market, which typically has much higher levels of inventory and a slower rate of sales, is feeling the crunch.  For homes over $700,000 there was 1.4 months of inventory and for homes from $500,000-699,999 there was only 0.4 months.

Since there is “nothing” to buy, prices for what little inventory there is have continued to surge into record territory.  The average price per square foot in the Boise real estate market in August was $202 (+12.2%).  Meanwhile the average sales price jumped 14% vs 2019 to $448,000. It seems paradoxical with layoffs and unemployment running rampant and many businesses, small and large, closing that we are in the midst of an historic housing boom in Boise.  But many of those suffering job losses were not likely homebuyers and many of the out of state buyers that are relocating here are either able to work remotely or are moving using the proceeds from a home sale elsewhere even if they don’t currently have a job lined up here. I am also hearing of people pulling the trigger on retiring early so the job market is not a real factor in their decision on where to relocate. Boise has become a popular retirement destination in the last 20 years and will likely remain a desirable location for active retirees. For the most part this is uncharted territory, so it will be interesting to see how it all settles out after COVID.  Many feel the true economic impacts of the pandemic are yet to come but it is hard to say how much impact that will have on the Boise housing market.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1361 +18.7 100 717 -61.1 100 $202 +12.2 $448K +14.0 33 0.0 0.5
New Construction 432 +32.9 31.7 395 -51.8 55.1 $203 +9.1 $461K +8.5 62 +8.8 0.9

 

Canyon County 653 +18.7 100 295 -61.4 100 $167 +9.2 $337K +18.2 35 +9.4 0.5

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions.  Stay well and be safe! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on September 13, 2020 at 3:49 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2020

Lots Of Buyers But Very Little To Buy 

What a difference 2 months make! In May the Boise real estate market looked like it was going to take a significant hit volume wise due to COVID-19.  Sales were down 29.1% from the previous year and although predictions were that it would be a short slowdown, most felt that until the virus was under control the market would continue to be affected.  In June with COVID-19 cases starting to edge up but restrictions on movement eased and most business re-opened things turned around and there was a modest 3.6% increase in closed sales. In July with cases surging in the Treasure Valley, the bars closed again, and a mask mandate in many areas, what did sales do?  They shot up 23.1%. While at the same time inventory withered to unheard of lows pushing prices into record territory once again.

Despite an uncertain economic future, but aided by record low interest rates and a continued influx of out of state buyers who perceive Boise as a relative oasis from the pandemic and civil unrest that has occurred in many areas, the market is on fire. The only problem is there is literally almost nothing to buy.  While 1509 homes sold in July there are only 924 for sale.  At the current sales rate that means there is only .6 (six tenths) of one month of inventory, definitely a record low. Inventory (924 homes) was down 48.6% from a year ago and even new construction, which has been the saving grace for inventory in recent years, saw the number of homes for sale drop 49% to 365. As you might expect the situation is particularly dire for buyers in the lower price points.  While there were only 56 homes under $300K for sale in Ada County last month, 221 sold which equates to .3 months of inventory.  That means they are basically selling instantaneously.  But sales under $300K were actually down 43.2% as a result of having no inventory while the higher price points fared better.  Sales of homes between $300K and $500K were up 44.8%, while sales of all homes above $500K were up a whopping 92.3%.

Prices are responding accordingly and hit new records just about anyway you slice it.  The average price per square foot in the Boise real estate market broke $200 for the first time hitting $201, a 13.6% increase from 2019.  The average sales price meanwhile was $441K up 14.8%. These types of price increases only serve to confirm that we are heading for an affordability crisis to some degree as average incomes are not rising at anywhere near the same pace. The incredibly low interest rates have softened the blow somewhat, but at some point we are going to have to confront the issue of affordability in our market. And yes, there are lots of cash rich buyers from out of state fueling the flames. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon, I’m afraid.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1509 +23.1 100 924 -48.6 100 $201 +13.6 $441K +14.8 36 +20.0 0.6
New Construction 448 +45.0 29.6 503 -42.3 54.4 $202 +11.6 $458K +9.6 72 +16.1 1.1

 

Canyon County 629 +19.4 100 365 -49.0 100 $163 +13.2 $323K +17.0 41 +32.3 0.6

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions and stay well and be safe.

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on August 11, 2020 at 2:14 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2020

Home Sales Rebound Sharply from 2 Month COVID-19 Slump

Homes sales in the Boise real estate market seem to be on a roller coaster.  Sales were increasing moderately through March and then dropped sharply in April (-17.4%) and May (-29.1%) presumably due to COVID related factors.  As the state gradually progressed through the re-opening process sales took off and while up a modest 3.6% in June, this represents a positive swing of over 30% in one month. But the bigger story is that while demand continues to be extremely strong, supply is critically low.  We have been in a strong seller’s market with near record low inventory and market times for the last 2 years or so but in June the number of homes for sale dropped 36.7% versus a year ago.  More homes sold in June (1237) than are currently for sale (1158) meaning that inventory is below one month—0.9 months to be exact. Looking back I could only find one other time in the last several years that inventory in the Boise real estate market has fallen below one month. This coupled with an average days on market of 33 days makes it very difficult for many buyers to find a home in the current market. As the number of COVID cases increases and some cities and possibly the state consider scaling back on re-opening plans it remains to be seen if sales will take another hit.

Prices have responded to the critically low supply as expected and were in record territory in June.  Even during the 2 months that sales suffered due to COVID, prices continued to increase but in June the average price per square foot was up 12.5% versus 2019 tying the record set in May of $198/ square foot. The average sale price also increased sharply, rising 8.4% to $427K, a new record. While I have mentioned a looming affordability issue in our market in the past, in June affordability concerns did not hold the market back.  There seem to be plenty of buyers with the ability to pay even as prices break new records almost every month.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1237 +3.6 100 1158 -36.7 100 $198 +12.5 $427K +8.4 33 0 0.9
Distressed (REO or Short Sale) 1 0 0.1 1 -66.7 0.1 $139 -25.3 $265K -8.3 30 +114.3 1.0
New Construction 376 +24.9 30.4 638 -26.6 55.1 $198 +7.6 $466K +8.4 64 -7.2 1.7

 

Canyon County 568 +7.8 100 457 -38.7 100 $165 +15.4 $317K +15.7 33 0 0.8

 

I would expect some degree of volatility, at least on the volume side, to continue as we remain in uncharted territory with regards to COVID and the longer term economic impacts.  If a recession as severe as is predicted does take hold one would assume that there will be some pressure on real estate prices in our market as well but based on past performance I can’t say that with any certainty. Stay well and be safe! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on July 10, 2020 at 1:56 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2020

Sales Take a COVID Hit But Prices Keep Rising

As expected sales in the Boise real estate market dropped sharply in May due to COVID related restrictions and hesitancy among Buyers.  I use the word “hesitancy” rather than point to a lack of demand because I believe that Buyers are still looking to buy in the Boise real estate market but for various reasons mostly related to COVID, either were unable or unwilling to pull the trigger on a purchase in March and April.  I believe that assuming that we continue on the slow path back to “normalcy” this will be short lived and the numbers in May would suggest that is the case.  While closed sales for the month (895) dropped 29.1% from a year ago, pending sales were only off 2.1% which bodes well for June and July closings.  Pending sales also were up  51.8% from April.  Meanwhile the number of homes for sale in May was 2.8% lower than in 2019, which is actually a good showing in the inventory starved market that we have been in for the last several years.  Speaking of which, despite the drop in closings, the average days on market has also been dropping and sits at a very low 27 days.  This is a significant drop from the 45 days we saw in March (58 in January) and along with our current inventory, which sits at only 1.8 months, conforms that we remain in a very strong Seller’s market.

 

So it comes as no surprise that even with a sharp drop in closings, prices continue to flirt with and in some cases break records.  The average price per square foot sits at $198 (+10.6% vs 2019), a new record, while the average sales price was $412K, the second highest on record after March at $424K. This was a 7.3% increase from a year ago and I would not be surprised to see this not only hit a new record again in the coming month’s but also return to the double digit annual percentage increases that have been the norm the last year or so.  Demand remains strong and anecdotally I am hearing that bidding wars and above asking sale prices are back in force particularly in the lower price points.  Many (myself included) expect a stronger than ever surge of in-migration in the coming month’s as more and more people flee the higher priced coasts where COVID and other factors continue to degrade the quality of life compared to Boise. The national picture isn’t quite as rosy but even experts like Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner are not predicting prices to actually drop long term.  His latest report indicates there may be a small short term drop in the next few months but that by year’s end prices on a nationwide scale will be back in plus territory.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 895 -29.1 100 1585 -2.8 100 $198 +10.6 $412K +7.3 27 -20.6 1.8
Distressed (REO or Short Sale) 2 0 0.2 2 -33.3 0.1 $138 +181.6 $261K +90.5 23 -81.9 1.0
New Construction 284 -26.8 31.7 813 +0.9 51.3 $201 +10.4 $456K +10.1 51 -26.1 2.9

 

Canyon County 410 -23.2 100 627 -6.3 100 $161 +9.5 $306K +15.0 31 -20.5 1.5

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and above all stay well and be safe.

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on June 10, 2020 at 11:52 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For April 2020

COVID-19 Starts to Affect Boise Real Estate Market With More To Come. 

After a very strong March that was seemingly unaffected by the current global pandemic, the Boise real estate market shifted gears dramatically in April and I believe we can expect more to come.  How long these changes take to fully manifest themselves, how serious they are, and how long they last in the Boise market, which is otherwise still fundamentally solid, is the million dollar question.  After posting impressive numbers in March closed sales reversed course dramatically in April.  We went from 995 sales in March (+10.9% year over year) to 843 in April (-17.4%).  That is quite a swing for one month.  Furthermore typically sales tend to ramp up in the Spring peaking in June or July but this year sales in April dropped over 15% from March.  More ominous is the fact that pending sales, a good indicator of future sales trends, dropped 32.2% year over year.  And the number of homes for sale (1551) was up 3.9%, something we haven’t seen much of in the last several years, and while inventories remain extremely low by historical standards so far, they inched up in April.  We went from 1.4 months of inventory in March to 1.8 months in April.  Expect that number to rise even further in the coming months, but we have a long way to go before it would be considered high (6+ months).

Prices, not surprisingly, have not yet really responded to the dramatic slow down in sales.  It maybe 3-6 months before they catch up.  How much they drop, or at least slow down the rate of increase, will depend on if dropping buyer demand is the primary reason for the slowdown in sales or if other factors are in play. For now the price train keeps rolling…The average price per square foot was up 9.6% in April to $194.  This actually was a slight drop from the record of $195 in March but it is hard to say if that was COVID related or just a “normal” fluctuation.  Meanwhile the average sales price was up 10.2% to $409K.  This was also a drop from the $424K average in March but the March figure seems to have been a bit of an outlier when looking at the overall trends in the last 12 months.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 843 -17.4 100 1551 +3.7 100 $194 +9.6 $409K +10.2 34 -24.4 1.8
Distressed (REO or Short Sale) 0 -100.0 0 3 +50.0 0.2 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 N/A N/A 0
New Construction 293 -17.5 34.8 820 +4.7 52.9 $195 +10.8 $444K +11.3 67 -22.1 2.8

 

Canyon County 497 +5.7 100 664 +10.1 100 $162 +12.5 $295K +8.9 36 +2.9 1.3

 

Back to the million dollar question.  While no one knows for sure how big a hit the Boise real estate market will take or how long it will last there are a few things we do know:

  1. Many Idahoans have lost their jobs either temporarily or permanently.  While many of these were in the service and retail industries, so not necessarily current homeowners or active buyers, there are still significant numbers of people who will struggle to make their mortgages or who have shelved their plans to buy because of the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.  While there are some forbearance and/or mortgage relief programs in place we should expect default rates to rise.  Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s chief economist, recently reported on forbearance and provides some good info for those who aren’t very familiar with the term. With more defaults will come more short sales and REO sales, something we haven’t seen in recent years.  In fact I stopped including them in my report because they were basically non-existent after being as high as 50% of all sales during the Great Recession (2008-10). I added them back in this month to establish a baseline for the future.  As you can see above, we had exactly zero distressed sales in April.
  2. Both income disruptions for potential buyers and wavering consumer confidence will likely drive demand down at least temporarily. Some buyers will be forced to retreat from the market while others may not be comfortable taking on a mortgage until we see how things pan out. Current homeowners that were considering trading up may also tap the brakes.  On the flip side, in-migration could actually increase as COVID causes some in harder hit areas to pull the trigger on a move to Idaho, which at least so far has been relatively lightly affected. Also, if prices actually drop, expect some speculative buying by cash rich investors. And interest rates remain very low so even buyers that need to finance will find favorable terms with one major exception.
  3. For now Jumbo loans have dried up.  Many banks simply have stopped doing them while others have changed their underwriting on these types of loans to all but effectively stop doing them.  This will undoubtedly have an impact on the upper end of our market—basically everything over about $600K.
  4. This is not going to be a repeat of the Great Recession, of which the housing market was a root cause.  This disruption has nothing to do with housing although clearly it will affect housing.  Matthew Gardner, weighs in on this subject as well in another short video that you might find interesting.
  5. If we are able to continue the process of re-opening the economy that has already begun the disruption to the Boise real estate market should be relatively small and short lived because the foundation remains strong. That of course is a huge “if”. A second (or third) wave of infection that results in renewed shutdowns or a lengthier period of reduced or no income for many people will clearly have more significant impacts on housing.
  6. The construction industry locally has been relatively unaffected so far as construction was deemed “essential” and continued through the stay at home order.  There have been some supply stream and workforce disruptions none the less but overall nothing major yet.  However, some builders, anticipating at least a temporary drop in demand have paused and are being cautious about over building spec homes.  My guess is as soon as they feel the worst is over they will resume building at full steam ahead.Please feel free to contact me with questions and comments and stay well and be safe.

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on May 11, 2020 at 2:27 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for March 2020

The Calm Before The COVID-19 Storm? 

First of all, I hope you are all well and safe. We have all experienced a once in a lifetime (I hope) event in the last 30 days and as you know the situation is still changing by the hour with much more to come. Plus we had an earthquake!

That being said, in March the Boise real estate market was relatively unaffected by the public health, economic and cultural upheaval which began to manifest itself in our area approximately 30 days ago.  In fact March was another very strong month for Boise real estate.  Sales and prices were both up in double digits and inventory remains at record or near record lows.  One can only assume that this is the proverbial calm before the storm and that real estate will be both directly and indirectly impacted by COVID-19.  The severity of those impacts on Boise real estate remain to be seen but by virtually all measures our  economy and social habits have seen the swiftest, most dramatic changes in modern history. We know nothing about how long this will last or what the lasting impacts on employment, financing, and investment will be.  In the past I have often made predictions for the short term future of the Boise real estate market with the disclaimer of, “barring any unforeseen macro-economic or political events.” Our current situation definitely qualifies! The only prediction I can make is that change is definitely coming to the market. There are too many moving parts to say with any certainty if the changes will primarily benefit buyers or sellers, although I suspect that buyers/investors who have cash may be presented with some opportunities in the coming months. Not much of a prediction since cash is king in almost all difficult markets. There have already been significant changes to so called Jumbo Loans, which are mortgages above the limit for “conventional” loans which is currently $510,400.  Many banks and investors are either no longer writing Jumbo loans or have significantly changed their underwriting on these loans.  Windermere’s chief economist, Matthew Gardiner, provides a brief overview of some of the changes in this video.

Here is what happened in Boise Real Estate in March:  Closed sales (995) were up 10.9% versus 2019 while pending sales were off slightly- a possible precursor of things to come.  The number of homes for sale dropped 7.9%, but this has been the trend for, literally, years in our market.  Inventory remains very very tight with only 1.4 months of supply currently available and the average days on market is also very low at 45 days, a 13.5% drop from last March.  Prices are not surprisingly continuing to rise by double digits.  The average price per square foot was $195, a 12.1% annual increase and a new record high.  The average sold price also set a new record at $424K (+13.7%).  I could throw in something here about how those types of price increases are unsustainable given the current rate of wage growth and overall inflation, but I suspect that will be a moot point very soon.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 995 +10.9 100 1371 -7.9 100 $195 +12.1 $424K +13.7 45 -13.5 1.4
New Construction 396 +19.6 40.0 765 -6.6 55.8 $198 +11.9 $435K +7.4 79 -9.2 1.9

 

Canyon County 527 +33.8 100 608 -1.1 100 $155 13.1 $297K +17.4 51 +13.3 1.2

Please feel free to contact me with your comments, questions and referrals.  Stay well and stay safe!!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on April 10, 2020 at 12:57 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2020

The End Of The New “Normal” For Boise Real Estate?

It’s no secret that the Boise real estate market has been on somewhat of a roller coaster the last 15+ years. Since the “Liar Loan” fueled peak in 2006-7 and the collapse in 2008-10 the market has risen steadily and has been firmly in record territory for the last couple years. Rising prices and low inventory have been happening for so long in our market that to many it has become the new “normal”. Traditionally however, a “normal” or stable market has meant price increases were keeping pace with inflation and wage growth and were thus “sustainable”, and inventory  was around 6 months.  A neutral market where neither buyers or sellers had undue leverage in negotiating a sale.  Unless you have been in the business for over 20 years you have never really seen “normal”.  Based on recent events related to the COVID-19 virus it is likely that even the new “normal” won’t last.  While it is too soon to accurately predict how drastic or long lasting the effects on real estate will be, no one is denying that change is coming.  Recently Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provided an updated outlook on the 2020 housing market.  He feels the impact will be significant but relatively short lived as there is nothing systemically wrong with the housing market. Both buyers and sellers may pause due to uncertainty and fear but once the outbreak has largely peaked things will quickly get back on track as far as real estate goes. I guess it really will depend to a large degree on the length and severity of the outbreak. That prognosis is changing daily with one report earlier today indicating the federal government is now planning for an 18 month pandemic. If this lasts 18 months I would suspect the market impacts to be pretty severe as opposes to a 3-6 month disruption.

In the meantime, February’s numbers, prior to Coronavirus becoming an issue in the US,  saw a continuation of the new normal—steeply rising prices and very low inventory.  Overall home sales rose 3.6% in February versus 2019 with 757 homes sold.  New construction continued to lead the way with a 14.3% increase.  Lack of inventory continued to be the prime constraint on the number of homes sold.  There were 1201 homes for sale in February (-17.3%) which based on the current rate of sales is 1.6 months of inventory.  A very strong seller’s market.

Prices continue to reflect the tight supply and strong demand.  While inventory was down 17.3% pending sales were up 24.2% meaning that assuming those sales close we should have a strong March and upward pressure on prices would continue. The average sale price in Ada County was $406K up 13.4% year over year while the average price per square foot was $189, up 10.5%.  Both of these numbers are at or very near all time records, as they have been for over a year.   The Canyon County market showed similar trends.  The average sale price ($291K) was up 14.1% while the average price per square foot ($154) rose 8.5%.  Expect inventory of existing homes throughout the Valley to remain very low, although there is some uncertainty as far as how much COVID-19 will affect the demand side.  While closings of homes that went pending before the outbreak hit may make for a strong March in terms of overall sales all bets are off after that. I will be watching the numbers closely in the coming months to see how this all unfolds.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 757 +3.6 100 1201 -17.3 100 $189 +10.5 $406K +13.4 56 -1.8 1.6
New Construction 312 +14.3 41.2 790 -12.3 65.8 $188 +8.0 $425K +5.7 88 -4.3 2.5

 

Canyon County 371 +18.9 100 609 -5.3 100 $154 +8.5 $291K +14.1 53 +23.3 1.6

I encourage all of us to stay calm, stay safe, and stay healthy in these unprecedented times.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any comments or questions about the information in this report. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on March 18, 2020 at 1:51 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2020

Boise Real Estate Volume and Prices Both Sizzle in January 

You probably have already seen the headlines in the local media about home prices reaching a new record high in January. While it makes for good headlines and is no doubt true, is it really news? Not if you have been following the market either with or without the help of this report.  Our market bottomed out from the Great Recession approximately 9 years ago and since the 2nd quarter of 2011 has seen steadily climbing prices and strong volume.  While I don’t recall the exact month where we not only eclipsed the high price points from the previous boom but also set a new record, suffice it to say it was years ago—2017 or 2018.  Since then the market has continued to grow and prices have continued to go up steadily, meaning that with very few exceptions we reach a new record high for prices every month. Noteworthy but hardly breaking news.  The real headlines will come when we see a month when prices actually drop.  Well, if January is any indication, we may be waiting awhile for that to happen.

The average sold price for Boise real estate in January was $405,000 a 12.2% increase from 2019 and a new record, don’t you know! Meanwhile the average price per square foot rose 7.5% to $186 (actually not a record—it was $191 in December). And volume, which in most of 2019 seem to be constrained by a dearth of available existing homes for sale, surged 25.4% ahead of last January with 780 homes sold.  New construction led the charge with 308 homes sold (+41.3%) and represented 39.5% of all homes sold and 66.7% of all homes for sale. Inventory continues to be extremely low at 1.6 months although the average days on market (58) is actually 16% higher than last January. The trends in Canyon County are fairly similar.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 780 +25.4 100 1221 -18.3 100 $186 +7.5 $406K +12.2 58 +16.0 1.6
New Construction 308 +41.3 39.5 815 -14.7 66.7 $193 +7.8 $444K +7.5 84 +25.4 2.6

 

Canyon County 337 +17.8 100 695 +11.7 100 $152 +10.9 $290K +13.3 48 +2.0 2.1

On January 30 Windermere was honored to host our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, who in what has become an annual event,  gave an excellent presentation on the Economic and Housing Outlook for 2020 both for the nation and the local market.  While he had lots of positive things to say about our local economy and housing market he also cautioned that affordability is becoming a real problem.  Those of you who follow this report know that I have expressed my concerns about affordability for well over a year and Matthew’s data serves to emphasize this issue.  His slides are very informative and I am happy to share them in PDF form with anyone who is interested.  The file is rather large so I am not including it here since many email servers limit the size allowed, but if you would like to see his presentation slides please contact me and I will arrange to get them to you.  Another look at affordability from the 30,000 foot level and not just related to housing can be found in this recent article in the Atlantic.  It argues that in what is hailed by some as the best US Economy in decades American families continue to be bled dry and it is only the corporations and the super wealthy that are truly benefitting.  So much for trickle down economics!

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2019

Strong December Caps Off A Remarkable 2019 For Boise Real Estate 

The Boise real estate market was in overdrive in December finishing the year with strong sales volume growth and new record high prices. There were 902 total closed sales in Ada County up 17% from 2018, while sales of new construction surged 30% and represented 37.9% of all closings. Inventory, which had been stabilizing somewhat, was down 14.5% and the months of available inventory dropped to a razor thin 1.6 months.  Oddly and somewhat inexplicably, the average days on market jumped up to 52 days a 40.5% increase from a year ago.  And in Canyon County, inventory was actually up 21.4% but the months of available inventory remains very low at 1.9 months.

Prices rose by double digits across the board for the 2nd month in a row reversing what had been a gradual softening in price increases for the majority of 2019.  In December the average price per square foot in the Boise real estate market was $191 (+11.0%), a new record high, while the average sales price also reached a new record of $404K, up 11.6%. New construction recorded similar price increases as did the Canyon County market.

Looking at year end numbers for volume and inventory it is interesting to see that overall volume in Ada County was actually down slightly for the year (-0.3%). If you back out new construction, which showed a solid increase of 14.6%, the number of pre-existing homes sold in the Boise market in 2019 dropped 6.9%. Canyon County fared better with overall sales up 5.2% while new construction was up almost 40% (+39.4).  Current homeowners continue to be stingy about listing even as the prospect of a good return due to higher prices provides temptation.  However, many have come to the realization that their options for finding a replacement home they can afford are more and more limited so there is little incentive to sell.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2019 AND 2018 Vs 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 902 +17.0 100 1403 -14.5 100 $191 +11.0 $404K +11.6 52 +40.5 1.6
New Construction 342 +30.0 37.9 915 -10.2 65.2 $198 +13.1 $450K +9.0 81 +65.3 2.7

 

Canyon County 404 +26.6 100 778 +21.4 100 $150 +10.3 $279K +11.2 46 +15.0 1.9

 

 

Total Homes Sold Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 12,002 N/A 5,050 N/A
2019 11,968 -0.3 5,315 +5.2

 

New Construction Sold Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 3,236 N/A 1,015 N/A
2019 3,744 +14.6 1,416 +39.4

 

 

Average Months of Inventory Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 1.6 N/A 1.5 N/A
2019 1.7 +6.3 1.7 +13.3

 

For those interested in what the future holds both for the Boise real estate market and the Idaho economy in general I invite you to join Windermere in welcoming our chief economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise on Thursday January 30 at 10:00am at JUMP for Matthew Gardner’s 2020 Idaho Economic & Housing Forecast. Please follow the link for more information and to reserve a space.  There is no cost but we would appreciate you registering on the EventBrite site so we can estimate our expected attendance.  If you aren’t able to register please come anyway.  Although this event has been very well attended in the past, I am sure we can accommodate all that are interested. Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and here’s to a thriving 2020 for all of us! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 15, 2020 at 1:24 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,