Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2020

Sales Take a COVID Hit But Prices Keep Rising

As expected sales in the Boise real estate market dropped sharply in May due to COVID related restrictions and hesitancy among Buyers.  I use the word “hesitancy” rather than point to a lack of demand because I believe that Buyers are still looking to buy in the Boise real estate market but for various reasons mostly related to COVID, either were unable or unwilling to pull the trigger on a purchase in March and April.  I believe that assuming that we continue on the slow path back to “normalcy” this will be short lived and the numbers in May would suggest that is the case.  While closed sales for the month (895) dropped 29.1% from a year ago, pending sales were only off 2.1% which bodes well for June and July closings.  Pending sales also were up  51.8% from April.  Meanwhile the number of homes for sale in May was 2.8% lower than in 2019, which is actually a good showing in the inventory starved market that we have been in for the last several years.  Speaking of which, despite the drop in closings, the average days on market has also been dropping and sits at a very low 27 days.  This is a significant drop from the 45 days we saw in March (58 in January) and along with our current inventory, which sits at only 1.8 months, conforms that we remain in a very strong Seller’s market.

 

So it comes as no surprise that even with a sharp drop in closings, prices continue to flirt with and in some cases break records.  The average price per square foot sits at $198 (+10.6% vs 2019), a new record, while the average sales price was $412K, the second highest on record after March at $424K. This was a 7.3% increase from a year ago and I would not be surprised to see this not only hit a new record again in the coming month’s but also return to the double digit annual percentage increases that have been the norm the last year or so.  Demand remains strong and anecdotally I am hearing that bidding wars and above asking sale prices are back in force particularly in the lower price points.  Many (myself included) expect a stronger than ever surge of in-migration in the coming month’s as more and more people flee the higher priced coasts where COVID and other factors continue to degrade the quality of life compared to Boise. The national picture isn’t quite as rosy but even experts like Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner are not predicting prices to actually drop long term.  His latest report indicates there may be a small short term drop in the next few months but that by year’s end prices on a nationwide scale will be back in plus territory.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 895 -29.1 100 1585 -2.8 100 $198 +10.6 $412K +7.3 27 -20.6 1.8
Distressed (REO or Short Sale) 2 0 0.2 2 -33.3 0.1 $138 +181.6 $261K +90.5 23 -81.9 1.0
New Construction 284 -26.8 31.7 813 +0.9 51.3 $201 +10.4 $456K +10.1 51 -26.1 2.9

 

Canyon County 410 -23.2 100 627 -6.3 100 $161 +9.5 $306K +15.0 31 -20.5 1.5

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and above all stay well and be safe.

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on June 10, 2020 at 11:52 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For April 2020

COVID-19 Starts to Affect Boise Real Estate Market With More To Come. 

After a very strong March that was seemingly unaffected by the current global pandemic, the Boise real estate market shifted gears dramatically in April and I believe we can expect more to come.  How long these changes take to fully manifest themselves, how serious they are, and how long they last in the Boise market, which is otherwise still fundamentally solid, is the million dollar question.  After posting impressive numbers in March closed sales reversed course dramatically in April.  We went from 995 sales in March (+10.9% year over year) to 843 in April (-17.4%).  That is quite a swing for one month.  Furthermore typically sales tend to ramp up in the Spring peaking in June or July but this year sales in April dropped over 15% from March.  More ominous is the fact that pending sales, a good indicator of future sales trends, dropped 32.2% year over year.  And the number of homes for sale (1551) was up 3.9%, something we haven’t seen much of in the last several years, and while inventories remain extremely low by historical standards so far, they inched up in April.  We went from 1.4 months of inventory in March to 1.8 months in April.  Expect that number to rise even further in the coming months, but we have a long way to go before it would be considered high (6+ months).

Prices, not surprisingly, have not yet really responded to the dramatic slow down in sales.  It maybe 3-6 months before they catch up.  How much they drop, or at least slow down the rate of increase, will depend on if dropping buyer demand is the primary reason for the slowdown in sales or if other factors are in play. For now the price train keeps rolling…The average price per square foot was up 9.6% in April to $194.  This actually was a slight drop from the record of $195 in March but it is hard to say if that was COVID related or just a “normal” fluctuation.  Meanwhile the average sales price was up 10.2% to $409K.  This was also a drop from the $424K average in March but the March figure seems to have been a bit of an outlier when looking at the overall trends in the last 12 months.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 843 -17.4 100 1551 +3.7 100 $194 +9.6 $409K +10.2 34 -24.4 1.8
Distressed (REO or Short Sale) 0 -100.0 0 3 +50.0 0.2 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 N/A N/A 0
New Construction 293 -17.5 34.8 820 +4.7 52.9 $195 +10.8 $444K +11.3 67 -22.1 2.8

 

Canyon County 497 +5.7 100 664 +10.1 100 $162 +12.5 $295K +8.9 36 +2.9 1.3

 

Back to the million dollar question.  While no one knows for sure how big a hit the Boise real estate market will take or how long it will last there are a few things we do know:

  1. Many Idahoans have lost their jobs either temporarily or permanently.  While many of these were in the service and retail industries, so not necessarily current homeowners or active buyers, there are still significant numbers of people who will struggle to make their mortgages or who have shelved their plans to buy because of the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.  While there are some forbearance and/or mortgage relief programs in place we should expect default rates to rise.  Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s chief economist, recently reported on forbearance and provides some good info for those who aren’t very familiar with the term. With more defaults will come more short sales and REO sales, something we haven’t seen in recent years.  In fact I stopped including them in my report because they were basically non-existent after being as high as 50% of all sales during the Great Recession (2008-10). I added them back in this month to establish a baseline for the future.  As you can see above, we had exactly zero distressed sales in April.
  2. Both income disruptions for potential buyers and wavering consumer confidence will likely drive demand down at least temporarily. Some buyers will be forced to retreat from the market while others may not be comfortable taking on a mortgage until we see how things pan out. Current homeowners that were considering trading up may also tap the brakes.  On the flip side, in-migration could actually increase as COVID causes some in harder hit areas to pull the trigger on a move to Idaho, which at least so far has been relatively lightly affected. Also, if prices actually drop, expect some speculative buying by cash rich investors. And interest rates remain very low so even buyers that need to finance will find favorable terms with one major exception.
  3. For now Jumbo loans have dried up.  Many banks simply have stopped doing them while others have changed their underwriting on these types of loans to all but effectively stop doing them.  This will undoubtedly have an impact on the upper end of our market—basically everything over about $600K.
  4. This is not going to be a repeat of the Great Recession, of which the housing market was a root cause.  This disruption has nothing to do with housing although clearly it will affect housing.  Matthew Gardner, weighs in on this subject as well in another short video that you might find interesting.
  5. If we are able to continue the process of re-opening the economy that has already begun the disruption to the Boise real estate market should be relatively small and short lived because the foundation remains strong. That of course is a huge “if”. A second (or third) wave of infection that results in renewed shutdowns or a lengthier period of reduced or no income for many people will clearly have more significant impacts on housing.
  6. The construction industry locally has been relatively unaffected so far as construction was deemed “essential” and continued through the stay at home order.  There have been some supply stream and workforce disruptions none the less but overall nothing major yet.  However, some builders, anticipating at least a temporary drop in demand have paused and are being cautious about over building spec homes.  My guess is as soon as they feel the worst is over they will resume building at full steam ahead.Please feel free to contact me with questions and comments and stay well and be safe.

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on May 11, 2020 at 2:27 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for March 2020

The Calm Before The COVID-19 Storm? 

First of all, I hope you are all well and safe. We have all experienced a once in a lifetime (I hope) event in the last 30 days and as you know the situation is still changing by the hour with much more to come. Plus we had an earthquake!

That being said, in March the Boise real estate market was relatively unaffected by the public health, economic and cultural upheaval which began to manifest itself in our area approximately 30 days ago.  In fact March was another very strong month for Boise real estate.  Sales and prices were both up in double digits and inventory remains at record or near record lows.  One can only assume that this is the proverbial calm before the storm and that real estate will be both directly and indirectly impacted by COVID-19.  The severity of those impacts on Boise real estate remain to be seen but by virtually all measures our  economy and social habits have seen the swiftest, most dramatic changes in modern history. We know nothing about how long this will last or what the lasting impacts on employment, financing, and investment will be.  In the past I have often made predictions for the short term future of the Boise real estate market with the disclaimer of, “barring any unforeseen macro-economic or political events.” Our current situation definitely qualifies! The only prediction I can make is that change is definitely coming to the market. There are too many moving parts to say with any certainty if the changes will primarily benefit buyers or sellers, although I suspect that buyers/investors who have cash may be presented with some opportunities in the coming months. Not much of a prediction since cash is king in almost all difficult markets. There have already been significant changes to so called Jumbo Loans, which are mortgages above the limit for “conventional” loans which is currently $510,400.  Many banks and investors are either no longer writing Jumbo loans or have significantly changed their underwriting on these loans.  Windermere’s chief economist, Matthew Gardiner, provides a brief overview of some of the changes in this video.

Here is what happened in Boise Real Estate in March:  Closed sales (995) were up 10.9% versus 2019 while pending sales were off slightly- a possible precursor of things to come.  The number of homes for sale dropped 7.9%, but this has been the trend for, literally, years in our market.  Inventory remains very very tight with only 1.4 months of supply currently available and the average days on market is also very low at 45 days, a 13.5% drop from last March.  Prices are not surprisingly continuing to rise by double digits.  The average price per square foot was $195, a 12.1% annual increase and a new record high.  The average sold price also set a new record at $424K (+13.7%).  I could throw in something here about how those types of price increases are unsustainable given the current rate of wage growth and overall inflation, but I suspect that will be a moot point very soon.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 995 +10.9 100 1371 -7.9 100 $195 +12.1 $424K +13.7 45 -13.5 1.4
New Construction 396 +19.6 40.0 765 -6.6 55.8 $198 +11.9 $435K +7.4 79 -9.2 1.9

 

Canyon County 527 +33.8 100 608 -1.1 100 $155 13.1 $297K +17.4 51 +13.3 1.2

Please feel free to contact me with your comments, questions and referrals.  Stay well and stay safe!!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on April 10, 2020 at 12:57 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2020

The End Of The New “Normal” For Boise Real Estate?

It’s no secret that the Boise real estate market has been on somewhat of a roller coaster the last 15+ years. Since the “Liar Loan” fueled peak in 2006-7 and the collapse in 2008-10 the market has risen steadily and has been firmly in record territory for the last couple years. Rising prices and low inventory have been happening for so long in our market that to many it has become the new “normal”. Traditionally however, a “normal” or stable market has meant price increases were keeping pace with inflation and wage growth and were thus “sustainable”, and inventory  was around 6 months.  A neutral market where neither buyers or sellers had undue leverage in negotiating a sale.  Unless you have been in the business for over 20 years you have never really seen “normal”.  Based on recent events related to the COVID-19 virus it is likely that even the new “normal” won’t last.  While it is too soon to accurately predict how drastic or long lasting the effects on real estate will be, no one is denying that change is coming.  Recently Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provided an updated outlook on the 2020 housing market.  He feels the impact will be significant but relatively short lived as there is nothing systemically wrong with the housing market. Both buyers and sellers may pause due to uncertainty and fear but once the outbreak has largely peaked things will quickly get back on track as far as real estate goes. I guess it really will depend to a large degree on the length and severity of the outbreak. That prognosis is changing daily with one report earlier today indicating the federal government is now planning for an 18 month pandemic. If this lasts 18 months I would suspect the market impacts to be pretty severe as opposes to a 3-6 month disruption.

In the meantime, February’s numbers, prior to Coronavirus becoming an issue in the US,  saw a continuation of the new normal—steeply rising prices and very low inventory.  Overall home sales rose 3.6% in February versus 2019 with 757 homes sold.  New construction continued to lead the way with a 14.3% increase.  Lack of inventory continued to be the prime constraint on the number of homes sold.  There were 1201 homes for sale in February (-17.3%) which based on the current rate of sales is 1.6 months of inventory.  A very strong seller’s market.

Prices continue to reflect the tight supply and strong demand.  While inventory was down 17.3% pending sales were up 24.2% meaning that assuming those sales close we should have a strong March and upward pressure on prices would continue. The average sale price in Ada County was $406K up 13.4% year over year while the average price per square foot was $189, up 10.5%.  Both of these numbers are at or very near all time records, as they have been for over a year.   The Canyon County market showed similar trends.  The average sale price ($291K) was up 14.1% while the average price per square foot ($154) rose 8.5%.  Expect inventory of existing homes throughout the Valley to remain very low, although there is some uncertainty as far as how much COVID-19 will affect the demand side.  While closings of homes that went pending before the outbreak hit may make for a strong March in terms of overall sales all bets are off after that. I will be watching the numbers closely in the coming months to see how this all unfolds.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 757 +3.6 100 1201 -17.3 100 $189 +10.5 $406K +13.4 56 -1.8 1.6
New Construction 312 +14.3 41.2 790 -12.3 65.8 $188 +8.0 $425K +5.7 88 -4.3 2.5

 

Canyon County 371 +18.9 100 609 -5.3 100 $154 +8.5 $291K +14.1 53 +23.3 1.6

I encourage all of us to stay calm, stay safe, and stay healthy in these unprecedented times.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any comments or questions about the information in this report. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on March 18, 2020 at 1:51 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2020

Boise Real Estate Volume and Prices Both Sizzle in January 

You probably have already seen the headlines in the local media about home prices reaching a new record high in January. While it makes for good headlines and is no doubt true, is it really news? Not if you have been following the market either with or without the help of this report.  Our market bottomed out from the Great Recession approximately 9 years ago and since the 2nd quarter of 2011 has seen steadily climbing prices and strong volume.  While I don’t recall the exact month where we not only eclipsed the high price points from the previous boom but also set a new record, suffice it to say it was years ago—2017 or 2018.  Since then the market has continued to grow and prices have continued to go up steadily, meaning that with very few exceptions we reach a new record high for prices every month. Noteworthy but hardly breaking news.  The real headlines will come when we see a month when prices actually drop.  Well, if January is any indication, we may be waiting awhile for that to happen.

The average sold price for Boise real estate in January was $405,000 a 12.2% increase from 2019 and a new record, don’t you know! Meanwhile the average price per square foot rose 7.5% to $186 (actually not a record—it was $191 in December). And volume, which in most of 2019 seem to be constrained by a dearth of available existing homes for sale, surged 25.4% ahead of last January with 780 homes sold.  New construction led the charge with 308 homes sold (+41.3%) and represented 39.5% of all homes sold and 66.7% of all homes for sale. Inventory continues to be extremely low at 1.6 months although the average days on market (58) is actually 16% higher than last January. The trends in Canyon County are fairly similar.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 780 +25.4 100 1221 -18.3 100 $186 +7.5 $406K +12.2 58 +16.0 1.6
New Construction 308 +41.3 39.5 815 -14.7 66.7 $193 +7.8 $444K +7.5 84 +25.4 2.6

 

Canyon County 337 +17.8 100 695 +11.7 100 $152 +10.9 $290K +13.3 48 +2.0 2.1

On January 30 Windermere was honored to host our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, who in what has become an annual event,  gave an excellent presentation on the Economic and Housing Outlook for 2020 both for the nation and the local market.  While he had lots of positive things to say about our local economy and housing market he also cautioned that affordability is becoming a real problem.  Those of you who follow this report know that I have expressed my concerns about affordability for well over a year and Matthew’s data serves to emphasize this issue.  His slides are very informative and I am happy to share them in PDF form with anyone who is interested.  The file is rather large so I am not including it here since many email servers limit the size allowed, but if you would like to see his presentation slides please contact me and I will arrange to get them to you.  Another look at affordability from the 30,000 foot level and not just related to housing can be found in this recent article in the Atlantic.  It argues that in what is hailed by some as the best US Economy in decades American families continue to be bled dry and it is only the corporations and the super wealthy that are truly benefitting.  So much for trickle down economics!

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2019

Strong December Caps Off A Remarkable 2019 For Boise Real Estate 

The Boise real estate market was in overdrive in December finishing the year with strong sales volume growth and new record high prices. There were 902 total closed sales in Ada County up 17% from 2018, while sales of new construction surged 30% and represented 37.9% of all closings. Inventory, which had been stabilizing somewhat, was down 14.5% and the months of available inventory dropped to a razor thin 1.6 months.  Oddly and somewhat inexplicably, the average days on market jumped up to 52 days a 40.5% increase from a year ago.  And in Canyon County, inventory was actually up 21.4% but the months of available inventory remains very low at 1.9 months.

Prices rose by double digits across the board for the 2nd month in a row reversing what had been a gradual softening in price increases for the majority of 2019.  In December the average price per square foot in the Boise real estate market was $191 (+11.0%), a new record high, while the average sales price also reached a new record of $404K, up 11.6%. New construction recorded similar price increases as did the Canyon County market.

Looking at year end numbers for volume and inventory it is interesting to see that overall volume in Ada County was actually down slightly for the year (-0.3%). If you back out new construction, which showed a solid increase of 14.6%, the number of pre-existing homes sold in the Boise market in 2019 dropped 6.9%. Canyon County fared better with overall sales up 5.2% while new construction was up almost 40% (+39.4).  Current homeowners continue to be stingy about listing even as the prospect of a good return due to higher prices provides temptation.  However, many have come to the realization that their options for finding a replacement home they can afford are more and more limited so there is little incentive to sell.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2019 AND 2018 Vs 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 902 +17.0 100 1403 -14.5 100 $191 +11.0 $404K +11.6 52 +40.5 1.6
New Construction 342 +30.0 37.9 915 -10.2 65.2 $198 +13.1 $450K +9.0 81 +65.3 2.7

 

Canyon County 404 +26.6 100 778 +21.4 100 $150 +10.3 $279K +11.2 46 +15.0 1.9

 

 

Total Homes Sold Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 12,002 N/A 5,050 N/A
2019 11,968 -0.3 5,315 +5.2

 

New Construction Sold Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 3,236 N/A 1,015 N/A
2019 3,744 +14.6 1,416 +39.4

 

 

Average Months of Inventory Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 1.6 N/A 1.5 N/A
2019 1.7 +6.3 1.7 +13.3

 

For those interested in what the future holds both for the Boise real estate market and the Idaho economy in general I invite you to join Windermere in welcoming our chief economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise on Thursday January 30 at 10:00am at JUMP for Matthew Gardner’s 2020 Idaho Economic & Housing Forecast. Please follow the link for more information and to reserve a space.  There is no cost but we would appreciate you registering on the EventBrite site so we can estimate our expected attendance.  If you aren’t able to register please come anyway.  Although this event has been very well attended in the past, I am sure we can accommodate all that are interested. Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and here’s to a thriving 2020 for all of us! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 15, 2020 at 1:24 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2019

Volume Up Slightly While Prices Surge By Double Digits 

Overall the number of closed sales was up 1.3% in November in the Boise real estate market with new construction leading the way. Of the 935 closed sales 304 (32.5%) were new construction.   Sales of new homes rose 19.2% for the month while sales of previously owned homes dropped by 5.5%.  This continues to be a function of lack of available inventory not lack of demand.  While inventories were starting to creep up slightly in the last few months, in November the number of homes for sale (1642) was down 11.7% from a year ago and also down about 12% from October. Fall and winter tend to be much slower than the summer months but the drop in numbers year over year indicates we definitely are not out of the woods yet as far as low inventories go. The average days on market of 42, while 20% higher than last November still is very low for this time of year and we are still in the “Strong Seller’s Market” range as far as inventory goes with only 1.8 months available based on the current rate of sales.

Prices have been rising since 2011 but in recent months the rate of increase had dropped into the mid to high single digits.  Not so in November when the average price per square foot rose 11.4% to $186 and the average sales price rose 15.7% to $404,000.  Both of those are, not surprisingly, new record highs.  The double whammy of low inventory and rapidly rising prices continues to put the pinch on potential buyers more and more of whom are either being priced out or are frustrated to the point of giving up and seeking alternative housing.  The means renting for many and moving in with family for some.  Were it not for the fact that interest rates continue to hover under 4% this “crisis” would be even more acute.  That time may come sooner than we think, although Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner believes only modest increases in interest rates are on the horizon.  He recently published his Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020 in the form of a short video.  It is worth a listen and is packed with good information, plus his accent is so cute! Matthew is coming to Boise on January 30 at 10:00 am for a presentation at JUMP on the Idaho economy and real estate market.  In the past these have been very informative and well attended.  If you are interested in going please let me know.  Admission is free but seating is limited and a ticket is required.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 935 +1.3 100 1642 -11.7 100 $186 +11.4 $404K +15.8 42 +20.0 1.8
New Construction 304 +19.2 32.5 922 -8.7 56.2 $194 +12.1 $455K +13.5 62 +29.2 3.0

 

Canyon County 380 -5.2 100 860 +19.8 100 $153 +10.9 $284K +15.0 35 +20.7 2.3

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments or if you know someone who would like to receive this report once a month.  Special thanks to those that have referred friends and family this year.  Referrals are the highest compliment I can receive and I really appreciate them! Best wishes for the Holidays and for a thriving 2020! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

 

*All reports are published December 2019, based on data available at the end of November 2019, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
Posted on December 14, 2019 at 1:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for October 2019

Ada County on Simmer While Canyon County Heats Up 

The Boise real estate market in October for the most part stayed true to recent trends—sales flat to slightly down while prices continue to rise.  In Ada County closed sales were off 2.1% from October 2018 although they were up 9.2% from September 2019. New construction is bucking that trend and sales were up 8.6% to 317 last month. The overall average days on market did take a jump to 41 days (+32.3%) but the months of available inventory remains critically low at 1.8. Prices meanwhile continue to go up at near a double digit pace.  The average price per square foot in October was $184, up 8.2% and a new record, while the average sold price jumped 9.9% to $390K.

A lot has been said about a looming affordability crisis in the Boise real estate market, and one symptom of that is evident in comparing Ada and Canyon County.  Buyers seeking more affordable options seem to be finding them in Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton. While sales in relatively more expensive Ada County are flat to down, in Canyon County, where the average price of a home is over $100K lower, sales are showing a moderate gain– up 3.7%.  And prices in Canyon County are skyrocketing which may eventually narrow the gap. The average price per square foot in Canyon County was $153 in October (also a new record) and was 15.9% higher than last year.  Similarly, the average sold price jumped 18.8% to $285K.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1056 -2.1 100 1865 -1.7 100 $184 +8.2 $390K +9.9 41 +32.3 1.8
New Construction 317 +8.6 30.0 981 +4.5 52.6 $190 +6.7 $433K +5.1 67 +45.7 3.1

 

Canyon County 452 +3.7 100 898 +16.9 100 $153 +15.9 $285K +18.8 34 +21.4 2.0

 

Expect the current trends to continue in the short term with the usual seasonal drop off that occurs each winter.  With interest rates still low, a generally strong economy, and a steady supply of people moving to Idaho we continue to be able to kick the affordability can down the road.  At some point it may reach somewhat of a “breaking point” and the market may need to correct itself but for now that doesn’t seem to be happening.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on November 8, 2019 at 12:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2019

Homes Sales Up Slightly in September But There’s A Catch… 

The number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market was up slightly in September versus a year ago, seemingly bucking the recent trend of declining sales.  There were 967 closed sales in Ada County (+0.9% vs 2018) but looking back also reveals that September 2018 was a particularly slow month bracketed by relatively strong sales in both August and October.  Looking at the results on a quarterly basis provides a more realistic view of the market in this case and sales for the most recent 3 months are off 2.5% year to year.  Also telling is the fact that sales from August to September of this year dropped 14.5%, although much of that can be attributed to the normal seasonal drop off in sales heading into fall.  Inventory continues to be near historic lows at 1.9 months while the average days on market is up 5.9% to 36, also still near historic lows.

Several people have asked why I pay so much attention to sales trends when all they really care about are price trends.  “Is my house going up in value or going down?”  “As a buyer am I going to pay less if I buy now or wait?” are the most common questions I hear.  Well, typically prices are influenced by supply and demand and market trends in those areas generally are good predictors of future pricing trends.  Prices tend to lag somewhat in real estate, so a drop in sales (demand) and/or an increase in inventory (supply) may not be reflected in sales prices for several months.  For example,  Boise real estate has been slowing volume wise for most of this year but prices continue to rise much faster than is sustainable. The rate has dropped off somewhat from the scorching 15%+ annual increases we saw in 2016-18 but we are still flirting with double digit increases now even as volume is flat to down.  In September the average price per square foot in the Boise market was $180, up 7.8% and tied for the record high set last month.  The average sale price meanwhile was up 13.2% to $395,000 or $46,000 higher than one year ago. The obvious conclusion here is that demand is not the problem, the supply of available homes, especially “affordable” ones, continues to be the biggest barrier to market sales growth.  The average list price of homes for sale in the Boise real estate market is currently $504,000– not affordable for most buyers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 967 +0.9 100 1858 -4.4 100 $180 +7.8 $395K +13.2 36 +5.9 1.9
New Construction 278 +9.9 28.7 915 +3.9 49.2 $186 +7.5 $423K +6.8 61 -1.6 3.3

 

Canyon County 471 +20.8 100 884 +17.4 100 $147 +7.3 $282K +11.0 30 +20.0 1.9

 

Barring any unexpected macro-economic or political changes I believe we can expect more of the same in the Boise real estate market in the near future.  Continued in-migration (not just from California!), a relatively strong economy, and very low interest rates will continue to drive the demand side while our struggles with adequate supply of affordable options for buyers will also likely continue. New construction continues to outperform the market as a whole but don’t necessarily help the affordability issue as the price points on newly built homes are typical higher than for resale.  Please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions.

Mark your calendars!

Windermere is fortunate to be able to bring our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise for the 3rd year in a row to give a presentation on the Idaho Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020.  He will be speaking at JUMP! On January 30th.  I will have a limited number of tickets for those that contact me. Corporate sponsorships are also available for reserving tables. In the past this has been a great event! Please let me know if you are interested in attending. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on October 9, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for August 2019

Sales Slowdown Continues in August

The number of homes sold in Ada County dropped 10% in August versus a year ago to 1113 homes, continuing a trend that has been with us for almost a full year now. Year to date sales are off 2.5% and while supply continues to increase (+2.9% in August) I still believe the primary constraint on market volume is lack of affordable supply not lack of demand.  And while the average days on market was up 30.8% from a year ago it is still at only 34 days, just over half of the 60 days that is considered indicative of a stable market. At the current rate of sales there is only 1.6 months of available inventory, well into “Strong Seller’s Market” territory.

The key words in the last paragraph were “affordable supply”, because even as unit sales have dropped prices continue to increase steadily at a rate significantly higher than overall inflation.  Unfortunately prices are also still rising faster than average wage growth in our market and an “affordability crisis” is looming (or already here). The average price per square foot in August was $180, up 7.1%, while the average sales price jumped to a new record of $398K (+8.2%). For more and more buyers, especially first timers and/or Millennials, buying a home in Ada County is out of reach.  The net effect of this continues to be muted by the influx of cash rich out of state Buyers but as the markets where those Buyers tend to come from slow down, as they are doing,  we may see a further drop off in sales, that is more demand driven. As pointed out in one of my recent reports, the “sweet spot” for the market has moved up to around $350K.  That is already too high for many buyers who already live here.  With real estate prices rising 8-10% per year and wages only going up 3-4% there is bound to be fewer qualified buyers as time goes on.  Low interest rates have helped the situation but we can’t count on them to stay low forever, even though they have done so far longer than most experts predictions.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1113 -10.0 100 1823 +2.9 100 $180 +7.1 $398K +8.2 34 +30.8 1.6
New Construction 320 +3.9 28.8 820 +2.6 45.0 $186 +6.3 $426K +1.9 57 +21.3 2.6

 

Canyon County 541 +5.7 100 764 +20.5 100 $152 +16.0 $285K +16.8 32 +23.1 1.4

 

One interesting note that would tend to support the theory that lack of affordability may be starting to have an adverse effect on sales in Ada County, is that in Canyon County, where prices are significantly lower, sales were up 5.7% ( as opposed to -10.0% in Ada County).  And not only were unit sales up but prices were way up.  The average price per square foot  ($152) was up 16.0% while the average sales price ($285K) was up 16.8%.  Compare those to Ada County where the numbers were 7.1% and 8.2% respectively, about half the rate in Canyon County.  Of course if prices keep going up at that rate it won’t be long before Canyon County has it’s own affordability crisis.

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on September 18, 2019 at 1:55 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,