Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2019

Homes Sales Up Slightly in September But There’s A Catch… 

The number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market was up slightly in September versus a year ago, seemingly bucking the recent trend of declining sales.  There were 967 closed sales in Ada County (+0.9% vs 2018) but looking back also reveals that September 2018 was a particularly slow month bracketed by relatively strong sales in both August and October.  Looking at the results on a quarterly basis provides a more realistic view of the market in this case and sales for the most recent 3 months are off 2.5% year to year.  Also telling is the fact that sales from August to September of this year dropped 14.5%, although much of that can be attributed to the normal seasonal drop off in sales heading into fall.  Inventory continues to be near historic lows at 1.9 months while the average days on market is up 5.9% to 36, also still near historic lows.

Several people have asked why I pay so much attention to sales trends when all they really care about are price trends.  “Is my house going up in value or going down?”  “As a buyer am I going to pay less if I buy now or wait?” are the most common questions I hear.  Well, typically prices are influenced by supply and demand and market trends in those areas generally are good predictors of future pricing trends.  Prices tend to lag somewhat in real estate, so a drop in sales (demand) and/or an increase in inventory (supply) may not be reflected in sales prices for several months.  For example,  Boise real estate has been slowing volume wise for most of this year but prices continue to rise much faster than is sustainable. The rate has dropped off somewhat from the scorching 15%+ annual increases we saw in 2016-18 but we are still flirting with double digit increases now even as volume is flat to down.  In September the average price per square foot in the Boise market was $180, up 7.8% and tied for the record high set last month.  The average sale price meanwhile was up 13.2% to $395,000 or $46,000 higher than one year ago. The obvious conclusion here is that demand is not the problem, the supply of available homes, especially “affordable” ones, continues to be the biggest barrier to market sales growth.  The average list price of homes for sale in the Boise real estate market is currently $504,000– not affordable for most buyers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 967 +0.9 100 1858 -4.4 100 $180 +7.8 $395K +13.2 36 +5.9 1.9
New Construction 278 +9.9 28.7 915 +3.9 49.2 $186 +7.5 $423K +6.8 61 -1.6 3.3

 

Canyon County 471 +20.8 100 884 +17.4 100 $147 +7.3 $282K +11.0 30 +20.0 1.9

 

Barring any unexpected macro-economic or political changes I believe we can expect more of the same in the Boise real estate market in the near future.  Continued in-migration (not just from California!), a relatively strong economy, and very low interest rates will continue to drive the demand side while our struggles with adequate supply of affordable options for buyers will also likely continue. New construction continues to outperform the market as a whole but don’t necessarily help the affordability issue as the price points on newly built homes are typical higher than for resale.  Please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions.

Mark your calendars!

Windermere is fortunate to be able to bring our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise for the 3rd year in a row to give a presentation on the Idaho Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020.  He will be speaking at JUMP! On January 30th.  I will have a limited number of tickets for those that contact me. Corporate sponsorships are also available for reserving tables. In the past this has been a great event! Please let me know if you are interested in attending. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on October 9, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2018

Sales Continue to Slide but Prices at Record Level 

The Boise Real Estate Market in December was marked by sharply falling sales and sharply rising prices.  An odd couple to say the least. December’s 14.8% decline was the fourth in the last five months and sales for the most recent quarter combined are off 10.5% versus last year. Also for the 2nd straight month, after literally years of declines, the number of homes for sale was up 5.7% and pending sales, an indicator of future market activity were off 5.1%. Normally this would be bad news for sellers and at some point this will likely be the case, but for now prices seem unaffected by the drop in sales and are at record or near record levels. The average price per square foot was up 17% to $172/sf., a new record.  Meanwhile the average sales price was $363,000 (+16% )second only to the $368,000 recorded in August.  Even as the trend of declining sales has deepened the rate at which prices are rising has accelerated.  In November the average price per square foot and average sales price were up 12.3% and 13.6% respectively.

Conventional wisdom would say that a drop in sales is somehow a result of a drop in demand and that at some point prices should reflect that.  Until recently though it seemed a lack of supply was the primary market force keeping sales in check.  The demand was there but there was nothing to buy.  Now although inventory is still very low by historical standards we are seeing the number of homes for sale rise compared to a year ago with no apparent effects on the upward march of prices…so far.  Current inventory based on the rates of homes selling stands at 2.2 months the highest in almost a year, while the average days on market is 41 a 4.7% decline from last year. As a reminder, 6 months of inventory and 60 days on market are widely seen as indicative of a stable or “neutral” market as far as how much leverage buyers and sellers have.  So we are still in a strong seller’s market despite the sharp drop in sales. Continued in migration, stabilizing interest rates, and a generally strong local economy and job market seem to be enough to keep the party going.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER  2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 750 -14.8 100 1640 +5.7 100 $172 +17.0 $363K +16.0 41 -4.7 2.2
New Construction 256 +11.3 34.1 1019 +14.0 62.1 $175 +10.1 $413K +9.0 57 +1.8 4.0

 

Canyon County 312 -9.0 100 641 -14.5 100 $136 +13.3 $250K +16.3 38 -9.5 2.1

One other area in the latest Boise real estate market numbers worth pointing out is the role of new construction in the current mix of homes for sale and being sold.  While overall sales were down 14.8%, sales of new homes ( not including custom build jobs) were up 11.3% and the number of new homes for sale jumped 14% versus last year. The 256 new homes sold in December was 34.1% of all homes sold while the 1019 new homes for sale represented 62.1% of all homes listed. Without new construction the market would be in serious trouble on the supply side.  For example, sales of pre-owned homes were off 24% in December and 10.5% for the most recent quarter.  This may be helping boost prices as newly constructed homes tend to be priced above the overall market average.  Currently the average price per square foot for new construction is $175 (vs $170 for re-sale homes), while the average sales price for a newly built home is $413,000 (vs. $337,000 for re-sale).

Based on what is happening in other markets around the country and predictions for a nationwide economic slowdown and possible recession in the coming months, I still believe that the current double digit price increases are unsustainable and we will see a gradual flattening of the price curve in the coming months.  Supply for the time being will likely stay pretty tight even with all the new construction occurring because there hasn’t been a strong enough trigger to get existing homeowners to sell.  Many who would like to sell and take a profit are worried that they won’t be able to find a replacement home that meets their needs and their budget.  Until sellers feel like they may be missing out on peak pricing if they don’t sell we will continue to see very few existing homes on the market compared to historical averages.

Please feel free to contact me with you comments and questions. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 15, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2018

May Was Another Hot Month For Boise Real Estate

It’s starting to sound like a broken record when I report that the Boise real estate market has broken another record. But it just keeps happening. May saw record high prices yet again.  The average price per square foot jumped to $164, up $3 from April and up $21 (14.7%)  from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price also set a record at $345,000.  This is up $4,000 from April and $47,000 (+15.8%) for the year. Sellers are not only in the driver’s seat, they are in the fast lane.

The cause of these record breaking prices is no secret and has been the case for many months—extremely low inventory and very high demand. Boise continues to be “discovered” as a great place to live with good job growth and reasonable costs of living compared to our west coast neighbors.  Boise seems to make just about every list for desirability of late and people are moving here.  That coupled with few existing owners leaving or listing their homes has put us in a pinch.  While closed sales (1242) rose 12.7% in May, available inventory (1323) was down 28.3% from a year ago.  If you notice those two numbers are pretty close together meaning homes are selling almost as fast as they come on the market.  Further indication of this is that we currently only have 1.1 months of inventory, which is probably also a record.  Builders are building as fast as they can and they are definitely having an impact.  334 new homes (listed in the MLS) sold in May up a whopping 51.8%.  This number represents 26.9% of all the homes sold while new home inventory accounted for 46.2% of all inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1242 +12.7 100 1323 -28.3 100 $164 +14.7 $345K +15.8 36 0.0 1.1
New Construction 334 +51.8 26.9 611 -23.0 46.2 $170 +14.1 $382K +13.0 80 -12.1 1.8

 

Canyon County 512 +8.5 100 539 -28.0 100 $126 +13.5 $229K +14.5 30 -14.3 1.1

Of course the big question is how long will the market be able to maintain the current pace?  The exact timing of market swings are pretty hard to predict but there are some signs that we may be getting close to either a slowdown or possibly even somewhat of a correction.  For one, we have seen prices rising for seven solid years in a row. Secondly, interest rates have risen modestly and there are indications they will rise further especially if inflation picks up. Thirdly, as prices continue to rise and inventory remains low more and more people will either get priced out of the market or simply give up looking.  This doesn’t seem to have deterred many of the cash heavy out of state buyers looking to move here.  Those buyers ability to make the move to Boise hinges on their ability to sell for a large profit in the current home markets, particularly the west coast.  There are some indications that those market maybe starting to slow down and that we could see a gradual trickledown effect if those market do in fact slow down.  One thing is for sure—real estate is both cyclical and local.  It’s not a matter of if the market will slow it’s when, and while what happens in other markets may have some effect here local factors have a much bigger impact.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments, and referrals.  You may have noticed that I did not break out the numbers for distressed properties this month.  In recent months the number of distressed properties in the Boise market has dropped so low there really is no significance to them other than merely reporting how low they are. I hope distressed properties continue to be statistically irrelevant for many years to come. Have a great summer!

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on June 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2018

Sales and Prices Continue Winter Surge 

The Boise real estate market had a second straight month of both double digit unit sales and price increases.  The number of closed sales in Ada County was up 22.6% in February to 679.  Part of the percentage increase can be attributed to the closing “hangover” from last year’s January “Snowmaggedon”.  But sales were also up 5.4% from the previous month when the effects of the weather on closings had not yet been felt. All in all a very strong showing considering year to year sales trends were negative in November and December.  At that time I attributed the slowdown to the lack of inventory, which is valid. But in February we managed to sell 22.6% more homes despite having 14.8% less inventory to choose from.  There were only 1231 active listings in February, which I believe is the lowest number since well before the last boom—nearly 15 years ago.  This translates into 1.8 months of inventory based on the current rate of sales and is the 12th straight month that inventory has been at 2 months or lower.  New construction is trying to fill the gap, and 33.9% of all homes sold in February were new, but there just aren’t enough houses out there to meet the current demand.

So you guessed it, prices are going through the roof. Prices have actually been increasing in the Boise real estate market since bottoming out in the 1st qtr of 2011, but for the most part at an orderly sustainable pace meaning in the 5-10% range annually.  In the last few months we have seen a substantial uptick in the rate at which prices are increasing.  The average sales price in February in Ada County was $339,000 up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ($154) was up 10.7%.  Not only are these both record levels but consider that we only just broke the $300K threshold for average sales price in June of last year and we are already at $339K.   I’m not using the “B word” yet but the market certainly seems to be headed in that direction.  The question is with demand so high how long will it take for enough people to get priced out of the market to cause a correction?  Hard to say especially since relatively cash rich buyers migrating here are a significant part of the buyer pool in our market. After all we were just named by Forbes as the fastest growing city in the country.

But ultimately we will need good job and wage growth and low interest rates, not just lifestyle,  to keep things going.  Unemployment is low, wage growth is solid although off a low base, and interest rates, while still low have creeped up recently.  And compared to other states our overall economy is kind of in the middle of the pack.  Business Insider recently ranked Idaho as the 20th best economy in the nation saying, “Idaho’s December 2017 unemployment rate of 2.9% was the seventh lowest in the country, and its nonfarm payroll job growth rate of 2.1% between December 2016 and December 2017 was the eighth highest. But Idaho had the second-lowest Q3 2017 GDP per capita of just $42,046, and the fifth-lowest December 2017 average weekly wage of $759.36.”

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 679 +22.6 100 1231 -14.8 100 $154 +10.7 $339K +17.3 61 -6.2 1.8
Non Distress 673 +24.4 99.1 1226 -13.8 99.6 $155 +10.7 $340K +17.2 60 -6.2 1.8
REO 3 -66.7 0.4 2 -84.6 0.2 $120 +7.1 $245K +13.4 46 +130.0 0.7
Short Sale 3 0 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $117 +4.5 $195K -31.3 108 -60.4 0.7
New Construction 230 +41.1 33.9 730 -11.8 59.3 $162 +8.7 $387K +11.8 88 -6.4 3.2

 

Canyon County 301 +36.8 100 545 -16.7 100 $117 +11.4 $215K +13.2 57 -5.0 1.8

 

Overall it remains a challenging time for buyers in a very strong Seller’s Market.  The normal spring influx of new listings to the market may provide some relief as will new construction but prices will likely continue to rise sharply as well. Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your questions and comments and please share this report with anyone you would like.  As always your referrals are the highest compliment.  Thanks! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

*All reports are published March 2018, based on data available at the end of February 2018. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on March 15, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2018

Sales Rise and Prices Explode in January

After two straight months of year over year sales declines, in January closed sales in Ada County were up 8.2% to 644.  While this is still well below the 851 homes sold in December, January is usually by far the slowest month of the year. Last year’s Snowmageddon may have had some impact on sales in the latter part of January 2017 but the main negative effects on sales were in February and early March.  Regardless, January’s numbers are strong especially when you consider that the inventory of available homes was down 12.7% from a year ago. While the average days on market crept up a bit to 47 days this was still 14.5% lower than 2017 and the total months of inventory based on the current rate of sales was a very tight 2.0.  New construction continues to provide much needed inventory. In January 63.5% of all homes available were newly constructed or under construction while there were 171 closed sales (+27.6%).

While prices have been rising steadily for years in response to the high demand and low inventory, in January prices exploded.  The average price per square foot hit $153, a new record and a 15% increase from last January and a 4.1% increase in just one month from December 2017.  The average sales price hit $326K,  also a new record, $12,000 (+3.8% ) above December 2017 and a whopping 22.6% above January of last year.  As with closed sales, the winter weather may have had some impact last year especially towards the end of the month but I think most of this year’s surge in prices is due to the fundamental market forces of very low inventory coupled with very high demand.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 644 +8.2 100 1271 -12.7 100 $153 +15.0 $326K +22.6 47 -14.5 2.0
Non Distress 638 +10.0 99.1 1264 -12.2 99.5 $153 +14.2 $327K +21.6 47 -13.0 2.0
REO 4 -71.4 0.6 2 -71.4 0.2 $132 +33.3 $248K +41.7 41 -42.3 0.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0.0 4 -60.0 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0
New Construction 171 +27.6 26.6 807 -6.9 63.5 $161 +7.3 $385K +17.0 63 -22.2 4.7

 

Canyon County 269 +35.2 100 624 -13.8 100 $114 +11.8 $223K +21.2 48 -12.7 2.3

As mentioned last month, the new tax law could have some impact on our real estate market as the allowable deductions have changed.  Most of the changes will be largely unnoticed here though as compared to higher priced areas and because of how high demand is currently.  Also in the news is the revelation that after years of reports that Millennials  were not as likely to purchase a home as previous generations because they value experiences over things, now the analysts are saying the opposite:  the nationwide housing boom is being driven by first time home buyers primarily Millennials.

A couple other tidbits: we reached somewhat of a milestone in January in that for the first time since at least the end of the previous upcycle in 2007, there were 0, read: ZERO short sales in Ada County in January.  While 4 REO (bank owned) properties did close, “distressed” sales as a whole only represented six tenths of one percent of the market.  Compare that to the roughly 50% figure when the market bottomed out in 2010-11.  We’ve come a long way baby!

Secondly, for those of you who were fortunate enough to see Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner when he spoke in Boise last fall, or who have in interest in the statewide real estate market, you may want to take a look at his latest report on the Idaho real estate market for the 4th quarter of 2017. Click HERE to view the report.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your comments and questions and remember I am never too busy for your referrals. And whether you ski or not, don’t forget to Pray for Snow! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 16, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For September 2017

Inventory Squeeze Continues and Prices Surge

The Boise real estate market remained a strong Seller’s market in September even as the normal seasonal trend towards the slower winter months continued.  While closed sales in September (1099) were 10% below August, they were up 2.3% vs. September 2016. Furthermore the number of homes for sale (2098) was down 10.9% from a year ago and inventory remained below 2 months for the 7th straight month.  Home continue to sell quickly—the average days on market was 35.  This figure has been at 36 days or lower for the last four months after being as high as 65 days as recently as February. You will recall that 60 days is considered a stable neutral market.

Prices through most of the recent strong seller’s market have remained mostly in check, meaning increases were generally sustainable given current inflation and wage growth. In the last few months things seem to be heating up with regards to prices. We are far from the dreaded bubble and the underlying foundation of the market is much different than in the past but it does bear watching.  My general rule is that annual price gains of 10% or more over a period of several months or longer are not sustainable.  The average price per square foot at $149 was up 11.2% from 2016 while the average sales price ($304K) was up 8.6%. These numbers have been hovering on either side of the 10% mark for the last few months but as prices continue to rise affordability will drop meaning buyers get less house for their money and some leave the ranks of buyers all together by being priced out.  Income growth at 3-4% annually isn’t keeping up, and unlike in the previous strong market when buyers simply borrowed more to cover the gap, lending and underwriting is much stricter now so the chances of a full on bubble are much lower.  Eventually though dwindling affordability will be a catalyst for a market slow down which may come as soon as next year or hold off until what some predict will be a widespread recession in 2019. A Wall Street Journal Article on October 2nd with the headline “Cracks in the Housing Rally”  starts out saying, “The post crisis home price recovery is beginning to look vulnerable”.  The article cites slowing housing sales and starts on a national scale and goes on to say that household formation is slumping and affordability is being pressured by low wage growth and rising (still very low) interest rates. Some of these national trends certainly hold true for our market although real estate is primarily influenced by local factors.  One positive factor in our market that is not true nationally is continued strong in-migration from the west coast of people seeking quality of life and affordable (for them) housing. That may serve to keep the market going longer than would otherwise be true.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1099 +2.3 100 2098 -10.9 100 $149 +11.2 $304K +8.6 35 -27.1 1.9
Non Distress 1093 +3.1 99.5 2090 -9.6 99.6 $149 +10.4 $304K +8.2 35 -25.5 1.9
REO 3 -50.0 0.3 2 -90.0 0.1 $98 +12.6 $162K -48.2 38 -20.8 0.7
Short Sale 1 -83.3 0.1 6 -71.4 0.3 $103 -5.5 $322K +70.4 16 -94.5 6.0
New Construction 239 +1.7 21.7 810 -3.1 38.6 $162 +11.0 $364K +10.0 64 -34.7 3.4

 

Canyon County 441 +8.9 100 989 -3.5 100 $117 +10.4 $210K +11.7 32 -25.6 2.2

Please feel free to contact me with any questions and comments.  Have a great fall!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Posted on October 16, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

The Gardner Report–Idaho Real Estate Report for 2nd Quarter 2017

Windermere economist Matthew Gardner recently released a very informative report on the Idaho real estate market.  While it confirms what most of us already know–that inventory is tight and prices are rising, it contains some surprising nuggets as well.  Concise and easy to read it is well worth a look.  Here is a link to the complete report: The Gardner Report-Idaho

Or you can print or download as a PDF file:The Gardner Report-Idaho PDF

 

Posted on August 8, 2017 at 2:30 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2017

Market Taps the Brakes Due to Severe Winter Weather

 

As expected the severe winter weather we all experienced in December and January had a negative impact on closings in February and will probably have an impact on March sales as well.  After being up 18.8% in January versus 2016 there were 549 closed sales in February a 12.4% drop from a year ago and an 8.4% drop from January. Typically January is the slowest month of the year for closings so the fact that February had fewer closings is significant but I believe was almost entirely due to weather.  The fact that 2016 was a leap year may have had a minor effect on the sales totals as well. Other market indicators remain strong and I expect by April trends will rebound on the sales front.  If you compare the most recent quarter  with the same quarter last year the market trends smooth out and we are actually still about 1% ahead of last year in closings.

 

Lack of inventory continues to be a problem especially in the lower end of the market.  There were 1444 homes available in  a 20.3% year over year drop. This has been pretty consistent  for the last several months.  The average days on market did go up from 55 days in January to 65 in February, again weather related.  Because of the lower rate of sales in February the months of available inventory ticked slightly higher to 2.6 months.  Remember however that anything below 3 months of inventory is still considered a strong seller’s market. It is also interesting to see that for the second straight month nearly 60% of all the available inventory was new construction (either built or to be built and listed in the MLS).  That number is more typically in the 35-45% range.

 

The weather related drop in sales did not negatively impact prices in February. In fact quite the opposite.  The average price per square foot ($139) was up 7.8% from a year ago and 4.5% over January.  The average sales price rose 10.7% year over year to $290K.  This is borderline bubble territory but may be a blip rather than a trend as the average sales price in January was only up 1.9%.  Even new construction prices were up a robust 8.1% in February.  While the average price point for new construction is generally 15-20% higher than for resale, the price increase trend line for new construction has generally lagged behind that for resale properties.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 549 -12.4 100 1444 -20.3 100 $139 +7.8 $290K +10.7 65 -7.1 2.6
Non Distress 537 -12.4 97.8 1422 -18.5 98.5 $140 +7.7 $291K +10.2 65 -5.8 2.6
REO 8 +60.0 1.5 13 -23.5 0.9 $111 +9.9 $224K +10.3 23 -70.5 1.6
Short Sale 3 -57.1 0.5 8 -82.6 0.6 $112 +21.7 $283K +86.2 273 +96.4 2.7
New Construction 162 +15.7 29.5 828 -3.2 57.3 $150 +5.6 $347K +8.1 95 -13.6 5.1

 

 

I believe we will shake the weather caused sales drop by April and this spring should prove to be very active in the Boise market.  Continued job growth and in-migration will keep demand high.  The lack of inventory and slowly rising interest rates may provide somewhat of a counterbalance but in general the forecast at least for the remainder of this year is for the strong seller’s market to continue. Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and I love those referrals!

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

Posted on March 18, 2017 at 1:52 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2017

The Weather Outside Was Frightful, But The Market Was Quite Delightful

By any measure the winter weather in Boise since mid December has been difficult but the Boise real estate market has not yet felt any major effects.  After a slight dip in closed sales in December caused not by the weather, but by an odd spike in December 2015 closings, the market had a very strong performance in January. Closed sales in Ada County numbered 589 which is an 18.8% increase over last year.  January is by far the slowest month of the year for closings but we are still off to a good start for the year.  To put the seasonal swings of the real estate market in Boise  in context consider that in June, the busiest month for sales in 2016, there were 1240 closings—over twice as many as January.  And while the weather did not seem to affect closings in January, it did affect pended sales, an indicator of future closings in February and March.  Quite simply with frigid temperatures, deep snow, often nearly impassable side roads and several days of school closures January was not a good month to be out looking at houses.  As a result pending sales dropped 5% in January and the number of homes available also dropped sharply (-19.4%) although this is only slightly more than the trend (-14%) in recent months.  There were almost certainly some houses that might have listed in January had they not suffered water damage either due to ice dams, broken pipes, or crawlspace flooding.  The disaster clean up companies have been absolutely swamped.  I expect both pending sales and the number of homes for sale to start recovering quickly though and the demand is clearly still there.  We are sitting on 2.5 months of inventory and the average days on market is 55.  Both these figures are about 30% lower than a year ago.  That makes sense given that we are selling 18.8% more homes with 19.4% less inventory than last January.

Prices do continue to rise but the increases still are well within the range that I often refer to as “sustainable”.  The average price per square foot ($133) was up 6.4% over 2016 while the average sales price was actually only up 1.9%.  Interest rates remain somewhat higher than what the pre-election norm has been but 30 year fixed rates at or just below 4% are popping up again and interest rates are not putting any downward pressure on prices at this point.  Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist for Windermere, predicts rates will ease up to about 4.6% by the end of the year and while this could put a squeeze on some buyers as far as qualifying, he also feels that the likelihood of further rate increases as well as a tightening labor market will drive millennials and other first time home buyers off the fence and into home ownership.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 589 +18.8 100 1456 -19.4 100 $133 +6.4 $267K +1.9 55 -29.5 2.5
Non Distress 574 +21.4 97.5 1439 -17.3 98.8 $134 +6.3 $270K +1.5 54 -31.6 2.5
REO 14 -12.5 2.4 7 -63.2 0.5 $99 0.0 $175K +4.8 71 +24.6 0.5
Short Sale 1 -80.0 0.2 10 -79.2 0.7 $91 -9.9 $168K -36.6 330 +352.1 10.0
New Construction 133 +23.1 22.6 867 -2.8 59.5 $150 +8.7 $330K +1.9 81 -36.2 6.5

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and your referrals are always greatly appreciated. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Property Search and My Listings: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

Posted on February 17, 2017 at 11:08 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2016

November was a Hot Month for Boise Real Estate Sales

 

While the temperatures may have been dropping, if anything, the Boise real estate market was heating up.  Closed sales at 885 were 32.3% ahead of 2015 despite the continued lack of adequate inventory.  The number of homes for sale dropped 9.7% from a year ago to 1945 and this translated into 2.2 months of inventory—still firmly in “strong seller’s market” territory.  Not surprisingly home are selling on average 10 faster than last year with the average days on market currently sitting at 52.  Whatever pre-election jitters people may have had did not deter people from buying homes in Boise.

 

Speaking of the election, The Wall Street Journal proclaimed “Home Loans Enter Uncertain Era” in a November 14th headline.  They were referring to potential changes that may occur under the new administration and cited two main areas of concern—interest rates and regulation.  While it remains to be seen what will happen long term with interest rates for the short term the roughly ½ point spike that occurred right after the election has already started to reverse itself and has had no major impact on the market.  As for regulation, speculation is that Trump and a Republican controlled Congress wil look to loosen lending regulations and therefore allow more people to purchase homes.  While this is generally positive, too much freedom has consequences lest we forget the lessons learned in the last bust.  The new regulations have been very effective in preventing the type of bubble that many markets, Boise included, experienced 10-12 years ago. So while I believe a common sense look at what regulations could be modified or repealed is good, I also appreciate that with the new rules our market has prospered and maintained sustainable price increases since 2011.

 

November is a good example of that.  While sales jumped over 30% and inventory is very tight, prices continue to rise at only a moderate clip especially when one adjusts for overall inflation.  The average sales price in Ada County in November was $277,000 up 3.7% while the average price per square foot jumped 7.1% to $136.  As I reported last month prices are basically at record highs now even compared to the peak in 2006.  One difference with our current situation is that the increase in prices has been, for the most part, slow and steady and has taken a full 5 years to get back to those 2006 levels.  If you remember, the rate at which prices were increasing starting in 2004 through 2006 was much steeper. Anyone could get a loan so prices took off.  This time around that is not the case and the growth in the market has been much more “real” in my opinion.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 885 +32.3 100 1945 -9.7 100 $136 +7.1 $277K +3.7 52 -10.3 2.2
Non Distress 872 +35.4 98.5 1913 -7.4 98.4 $136 +6.3 $279K +3.3 51 -8.9 2.2
REO 9 -25.0 1.0 16 -20.0 0.8 $114 +12.9 $179K -11.8 94 +32.4 1.8
Short Sale 4 -60.0 0.5 14 -78.5 0.7 $103 +24.1 $177K +0.6 163 +32.5 3.5
New Construction 202 +41.3 22.8 907 +3.2 46.6 $149 +1.4 $328K -8.6 67 -15.2 4.5

 

Just for comparison sake even though this report covers only Ada County, I ran the number for Canyon County (Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, etc.) and the trends are very similar albeit on a smaller scale.  Closed sales were up 31.2% while inventory is down 5.5%.  Average sale price at $186K is up 8.8% while the average price per square foot at $103 was up 7.3%.  There are 2.5 months of inventory in Canyon County and the average days on market is 49 which is down 15% from a year ago.  Very impressive numbers indeed.

 

Thanks as always for your comments, questions, and referrals.  I hope you and yours all have a fantastic Holiday season and 2017 brings health, happiness, and

prosperity.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Property Search and My Listings: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

Current Boise Real Estate Market Data

 

P Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail.

 

 

 

From: camjohnson@windermere.com [mailto:camjohnson@windermere.com]
Sent: Thursday, December 08, 2016 2:40 PM
To: Cam Johnson
Subject: Cam Johnson’s Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for November 2016

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
For Sale 1945 2166 -10.2% 1945 2154 -9.7% 6466 7205 -10.3% 1864 2119 -12%
Sold 885 950 -6.8% 885 669 32.3% 2909 2424 20% 163 155 5.2%
Pended 804 949 -15.3% 804 738 8.9% 2679 2419 10.7% 216 228 -5.3%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold) 136 138 -1.4% 136 127 7.1% 135.91 126.62 7.3% 134 137 -2.2%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Avg CDOM 52 49 6.1% 52 58 -10.3% 50 53 -5.7% 46 51 -9.8%
Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 98 98 0% 98 98 0% 98 97 1% 97 98 -1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Avg. Active Price 362 359 0.8% 362 344 5.2% 360 342 5.3% 365 365 0%
Avg. Sold Price 277 281 -1.4% 277 267 3.7% 279 263 6.1% 268 282 -5%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 2.2 2.3 -4.4% 2.2 3.2 -31.1% 2.2 3 -26.9% 11.4 13.7 -16.8%

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published December 2016, based on data available at the end of November 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on December 13, 2016 at 11:47 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,