Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2018

That Predicted Market Shift?  I Think It Has Started…

For the last few months I have been describing subtle signs of storm clouds on the horizon that might lead to a much predicted shift in the market.  In September some big drops from those clouds started hitting my windshield.  Closed sales in September in Ada County (931) dropped 18.1% from a year ago, the biggest such drop since the market bottomed out in 2010-11. Furthermore sales dropped 21% in one month from August to September 2018, a much larger drop than would be expected due to normal seasonal slowdown. Pending sales dropped 3.8% while the number of homes for sales also dropped 7.3%. The drop in the number of homes for sale, while significant, is much smaller than the 15-25% drops we have become used to. As a result inventory at the current rate of sales rose to 2.1 months.  While this is still historically very low it is actually the highest it has been in the Boise real estate market in 18 months. Blame for the sharp drop in sales lies with the usual suspects: lack of available inventory, rising interest rates, and prices outpacing wage growth. Lack of affordability is continuing to force some buyers out of the market despite strong demand from out of state and repeat buyers.

Despite the drop in sales prices are still barreling ahead, but have moderated their upward spiral slightly and typically we would expect a real flattening in the price curve to lag several months behind the turning point in sales. The average price per square foot actually did drop  slightly from August to $167 but was still 12.1% ahead of September 2017.  The average sales price dropped a significant $19K from August but managed a 15.9% increase over last year.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER  2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 931 -18.1 100 1944 -7.3 100 $167 +12.1 $350K +15.9 34 -2.9 2.1
New Construction 249 +2.0 26.7 881 +8.8 45.3 $173 +6.8 $395K +9.1 62 -1.6 3.5

 

Canyon County 379 -17.6 100 753 -23.9 100 $137 +17.1 $252K +19.4 24 -27.3 2.0

 

New construction sales continue to grow despite the overall decline in the market although in September sales were only up a modest 2% from 2017.  26.7% of all homes sold in Ada County were new in September a slight uptick from August (25.8%). More significantly, the number of new homes for sale rose 8.8% from a year ago and represented 45.3% of all available homes.  These figures do no include custom build jobs which are not typically reported in the MLS, but suffice it to say that new construction is a driving force in the market right now. If you back out new construction from the number of homes sold in September, sales of pre-existing homes dropped 23.6% compared to a year ago. Not surprisingly with the high demand for construction labor and materials, the average sale price of a new home runs about 18% higher than for a re-sale home.  The difference is actually probably larger than that if you try to compare “Apples to Apples” as far as size, condition, etc.. New construction tends to be on average larger and in better condition than older homes in established and historic neighborhoods.

Looking forward, most “experts” are predicting that current trends will continue although the pricing curve should slowly start to flatten.  It remains to be seen whether we will actually see prices drop in the next 6-12 months or merely stabilize at a more sustainable growth pace more in tune with overall inflation.

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions.  Also for those interested in hearing Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, give his economic analysis and forecast for the Treasure Valley please plan to join us Thursday, October 25 from 10:00-11:30AM at JUMP in downtown Boise.  You can register for this free event here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/presentation-by-matthew-gardner-windermeres-chief-economist-tickets-49746412860.

You can also just show up but be aware seating may be limited.  This was a great event last year and hope you can make it this year! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on October 11, 2018 at 3:07 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2018

New Construction Buoys Sales, Prices Still Sizzling

July was another scorcher in the Boise Real Estate Market despite the lack of pre-existing homes on the market. Supply woes continue to both keep sales from rising to meet demand and to keep prices soaring for those homes that do hit the market.  New construction is helping stabilize the market but we remain in an epic seller’s market.  Total homes sales in Ada County (1191) were up 3.5% from a year ago but sales of existing homes (906) dropped 1.6%.  Lack of inventory continues to be the issue.  While overall inventory of homes for sale dropped 24.4%, existing home inventory dropped 32.5%. Days on market numbers paint a similar picture—overall we are at 29 average days on market but for existing homes that number drops to 19 days. Either number would be considered historically low. Based on the current rate of sales we have 1.3 months of overall inventory but only 1.0 months for already built homes. The numbers in Canyon County are similar but even more extreme in some cases: overall inventory there is off 37.8% despite a 10% increase in sales.

As a result, prices continue their march upward throughout the Treasure Valley.  The average sales price in July was essentially unchanged from June but was up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ticked up to $167 a 13.6% annual gain.  This is making it tougher and tougher for buyers, especially first time and/or Millennials to afford a suitable place to live.  We all have stories to tell about this but some of you may appreciate a recent story from NPR that focused on the problem by featuring Boise. Also, for more details on the market statewide please see the latest Gardner Report from Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. Matthew will be coming to Boise in October to give a  detailed report on the Boise economic and real estate outlook.  More details about this event to come.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1191 +3.5 100 1562 -24.4 100 $167 +13.6 $359K +17.3 29 -6.5 1.3
New Construction 285 +23.9 23.9 682 -10.5 43.7 $172 +8.9 $404K +11.0 62 -17.3 2.4

 

Canyon County 494 +10.0 100 564 -37.8 100 $131 +13.9 $252K +19.4 28 -15.2 1.1

 

So in the short term things remain rosy for sellers and really tough for buyers, but as I have mentioned previously there is some consensus building among the experts that a change is coming.  The Wall Street Journal recently featured a story on the front page with the headline “Home Sales Extend Slump Despite Economic Strength”.  Nationally, the report says, home sales have dropped on an annual basis in five of the first 6 months of the year with high prices, low inventory, and rising interest rates being to blame. The article also cites examples of the market slowing already in nearby cities such as Portland and Seattle due to buyers becoming more cautious especially at the high end of the market.  The article isn’t all doom and gloom though, saying at least for now demand isn’t the issue in most markets, supply is.  Bloomberg News took a different approach—a shovel to the face.  Their recent story was titled: The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years. Rising interest rates and high prices are stretching buyers to where they just give up. The famous economist Robert Shiller is quoted in the story as saying, “This could be the very beginning of a turning point”. The story goes on to cite rising inventories in nearby cities: San Jose +12%, Seattle +24%, and Portland +32%.  It still too soon to say what and when a change will come to Boise but if history is a guide we tend to lag 6-12 months behind our larger neighbors so I am guessing we will see some sort of a shift sooner than later.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments and stay cool!!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on August 16, 2018 at 11:30 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2018

May Was Another Hot Month For Boise Real Estate

It’s starting to sound like a broken record when I report that the Boise real estate market has broken another record. But it just keeps happening. May saw record high prices yet again.  The average price per square foot jumped to $164, up $3 from April and up $21 (14.7%)  from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price also set a record at $345,000.  This is up $4,000 from April and $47,000 (+15.8%) for the year. Sellers are not only in the driver’s seat, they are in the fast lane.

The cause of these record breaking prices is no secret and has been the case for many months—extremely low inventory and very high demand. Boise continues to be “discovered” as a great place to live with good job growth and reasonable costs of living compared to our west coast neighbors.  Boise seems to make just about every list for desirability of late and people are moving here.  That coupled with few existing owners leaving or listing their homes has put us in a pinch.  While closed sales (1242) rose 12.7% in May, available inventory (1323) was down 28.3% from a year ago.  If you notice those two numbers are pretty close together meaning homes are selling almost as fast as they come on the market.  Further indication of this is that we currently only have 1.1 months of inventory, which is probably also a record.  Builders are building as fast as they can and they are definitely having an impact.  334 new homes (listed in the MLS) sold in May up a whopping 51.8%.  This number represents 26.9% of all the homes sold while new home inventory accounted for 46.2% of all inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1242 +12.7 100 1323 -28.3 100 $164 +14.7 $345K +15.8 36 0.0 1.1
New Construction 334 +51.8 26.9 611 -23.0 46.2 $170 +14.1 $382K +13.0 80 -12.1 1.8

 

Canyon County 512 +8.5 100 539 -28.0 100 $126 +13.5 $229K +14.5 30 -14.3 1.1

Of course the big question is how long will the market be able to maintain the current pace?  The exact timing of market swings are pretty hard to predict but there are some signs that we may be getting close to either a slowdown or possibly even somewhat of a correction.  For one, we have seen prices rising for seven solid years in a row. Secondly, interest rates have risen modestly and there are indications they will rise further especially if inflation picks up. Thirdly, as prices continue to rise and inventory remains low more and more people will either get priced out of the market or simply give up looking.  This doesn’t seem to have deterred many of the cash heavy out of state buyers looking to move here.  Those buyers ability to make the move to Boise hinges on their ability to sell for a large profit in the current home markets, particularly the west coast.  There are some indications that those market maybe starting to slow down and that we could see a gradual trickledown effect if those market do in fact slow down.  One thing is for sure—real estate is both cyclical and local.  It’s not a matter of if the market will slow it’s when, and while what happens in other markets may have some effect here local factors have a much bigger impact.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments, and referrals.  You may have noticed that I did not break out the numbers for distressed properties this month.  In recent months the number of distressed properties in the Boise market has dropped so low there really is no significance to them other than merely reporting how low they are. I hope distressed properties continue to be statistically irrelevant for many years to come. Have a great summer!

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on June 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2018

Sales and Prices Continue Winter Surge 

The Boise real estate market had a second straight month of both double digit unit sales and price increases.  The number of closed sales in Ada County was up 22.6% in February to 679.  Part of the percentage increase can be attributed to the closing “hangover” from last year’s January “Snowmaggedon”.  But sales were also up 5.4% from the previous month when the effects of the weather on closings had not yet been felt. All in all a very strong showing considering year to year sales trends were negative in November and December.  At that time I attributed the slowdown to the lack of inventory, which is valid. But in February we managed to sell 22.6% more homes despite having 14.8% less inventory to choose from.  There were only 1231 active listings in February, which I believe is the lowest number since well before the last boom—nearly 15 years ago.  This translates into 1.8 months of inventory based on the current rate of sales and is the 12th straight month that inventory has been at 2 months or lower.  New construction is trying to fill the gap, and 33.9% of all homes sold in February were new, but there just aren’t enough houses out there to meet the current demand.

So you guessed it, prices are going through the roof. Prices have actually been increasing in the Boise real estate market since bottoming out in the 1st qtr of 2011, but for the most part at an orderly sustainable pace meaning in the 5-10% range annually.  In the last few months we have seen a substantial uptick in the rate at which prices are increasing.  The average sales price in February in Ada County was $339,000 up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ($154) was up 10.7%.  Not only are these both record levels but consider that we only just broke the $300K threshold for average sales price in June of last year and we are already at $339K.   I’m not using the “B word” yet but the market certainly seems to be headed in that direction.  The question is with demand so high how long will it take for enough people to get priced out of the market to cause a correction?  Hard to say especially since relatively cash rich buyers migrating here are a significant part of the buyer pool in our market. After all we were just named by Forbes as the fastest growing city in the country.

But ultimately we will need good job and wage growth and low interest rates, not just lifestyle,  to keep things going.  Unemployment is low, wage growth is solid although off a low base, and interest rates, while still low have creeped up recently.  And compared to other states our overall economy is kind of in the middle of the pack.  Business Insider recently ranked Idaho as the 20th best economy in the nation saying, “Idaho’s December 2017 unemployment rate of 2.9% was the seventh lowest in the country, and its nonfarm payroll job growth rate of 2.1% between December 2016 and December 2017 was the eighth highest. But Idaho had the second-lowest Q3 2017 GDP per capita of just $42,046, and the fifth-lowest December 2017 average weekly wage of $759.36.”

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 679 +22.6 100 1231 -14.8 100 $154 +10.7 $339K +17.3 61 -6.2 1.8
Non Distress 673 +24.4 99.1 1226 -13.8 99.6 $155 +10.7 $340K +17.2 60 -6.2 1.8
REO 3 -66.7 0.4 2 -84.6 0.2 $120 +7.1 $245K +13.4 46 +130.0 0.7
Short Sale 3 0 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $117 +4.5 $195K -31.3 108 -60.4 0.7
New Construction 230 +41.1 33.9 730 -11.8 59.3 $162 +8.7 $387K +11.8 88 -6.4 3.2

 

Canyon County 301 +36.8 100 545 -16.7 100 $117 +11.4 $215K +13.2 57 -5.0 1.8

 

Overall it remains a challenging time for buyers in a very strong Seller’s Market.  The normal spring influx of new listings to the market may provide some relief as will new construction but prices will likely continue to rise sharply as well. Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your questions and comments and please share this report with anyone you would like.  As always your referrals are the highest compliment.  Thanks! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

*All reports are published March 2018, based on data available at the end of February 2018. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on March 15, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2018

Sales Rise and Prices Explode in January

After two straight months of year over year sales declines, in January closed sales in Ada County were up 8.2% to 644.  While this is still well below the 851 homes sold in December, January is usually by far the slowest month of the year. Last year’s Snowmageddon may have had some impact on sales in the latter part of January 2017 but the main negative effects on sales were in February and early March.  Regardless, January’s numbers are strong especially when you consider that the inventory of available homes was down 12.7% from a year ago. While the average days on market crept up a bit to 47 days this was still 14.5% lower than 2017 and the total months of inventory based on the current rate of sales was a very tight 2.0.  New construction continues to provide much needed inventory. In January 63.5% of all homes available were newly constructed or under construction while there were 171 closed sales (+27.6%).

While prices have been rising steadily for years in response to the high demand and low inventory, in January prices exploded.  The average price per square foot hit $153, a new record and a 15% increase from last January and a 4.1% increase in just one month from December 2017.  The average sales price hit $326K,  also a new record, $12,000 (+3.8% ) above December 2017 and a whopping 22.6% above January of last year.  As with closed sales, the winter weather may have had some impact last year especially towards the end of the month but I think most of this year’s surge in prices is due to the fundamental market forces of very low inventory coupled with very high demand.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 644 +8.2 100 1271 -12.7 100 $153 +15.0 $326K +22.6 47 -14.5 2.0
Non Distress 638 +10.0 99.1 1264 -12.2 99.5 $153 +14.2 $327K +21.6 47 -13.0 2.0
REO 4 -71.4 0.6 2 -71.4 0.2 $132 +33.3 $248K +41.7 41 -42.3 0.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0.0 4 -60.0 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0
New Construction 171 +27.6 26.6 807 -6.9 63.5 $161 +7.3 $385K +17.0 63 -22.2 4.7

 

Canyon County 269 +35.2 100 624 -13.8 100 $114 +11.8 $223K +21.2 48 -12.7 2.3

As mentioned last month, the new tax law could have some impact on our real estate market as the allowable deductions have changed.  Most of the changes will be largely unnoticed here though as compared to higher priced areas and because of how high demand is currently.  Also in the news is the revelation that after years of reports that Millennials  were not as likely to purchase a home as previous generations because they value experiences over things, now the analysts are saying the opposite:  the nationwide housing boom is being driven by first time home buyers primarily Millennials.

A couple other tidbits: we reached somewhat of a milestone in January in that for the first time since at least the end of the previous upcycle in 2007, there were 0, read: ZERO short sales in Ada County in January.  While 4 REO (bank owned) properties did close, “distressed” sales as a whole only represented six tenths of one percent of the market.  Compare that to the roughly 50% figure when the market bottomed out in 2010-11.  We’ve come a long way baby!

Secondly, for those of you who were fortunate enough to see Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner when he spoke in Boise last fall, or who have in interest in the statewide real estate market, you may want to take a look at his latest report on the Idaho real estate market for the 4th quarter of 2017. Click HERE to view the report.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your comments and questions and remember I am never too busy for your referrals. And whether you ski or not, don’t forget to Pray for Snow! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 16, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2017

Idaho is the Fastest Growing State in the USA 

I’m sure you have seen the recent reports citing US Census data that Idaho’s population is growing faster percentagewise than any other state.  One of these reports from local company, Park Place Property Management, indicates our state’s population grew 2.2% in the last year and that our state population is predicted to reach 1.9 million by 2025.  Needless to say a lot of that growth will settle right here in Ada County and the Treasure Valley. The report also pegs Idaho’s current unemployment rate at 2.9%, which is at or near record territory.  Combine that with the low interest rates that we continue to enjoy and you have the recipe for a booming housing market.

 

There’s one little problem: Homes sales in Ada County have declined the last two months in a row when compared to the previous year. The culprit is no surprise if you are a regular reader of this report: lack of inventory especially in the resale segment.  Builders are building like crazy and almost 30% of all the homes sold last month were new construction.  57.6% of the homes for sale last month were new construction or under construction, but sellers of existing homes are not listing.  Some are probably waiting for the next market peak, some are just emerging from being upside down during the last housing crash, and investors are reluctant to sell rental homes that are performing well as rents continue to spiral upward.  Whatever the reason, Buyers had 8.5% fewer homes to choose from than a year ago, so all things considered the decline in sales is actually negligible, -0.2%. The demand is clearly there, but the supply is not.

 

So it is no surprise that prices continue to rise.  The average price per square foot ($147) was up 7.3% vs 2016 but dropped off a bit from the record levels of around $150/sf that we saw a couple months ago.  This is more seasonally driven than a sign of an actual market shift.  December and January are typically the slowest time of the year for real estate as people focus on the holidays and buying things like cars and jewelry not houses. The average sale price was $314K, up 13.8%.  This number is a little scary as it is above my self-proclaimed 10% cap on what I consider to be a sustainable price increase (ie: not a bubble).  I wouldn’t worry just yet however.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 851 -0.2 100 1551 -8.5 100 $147 +7.3 $314K +13.8 43 -27.1 1.8
Non Distress 845 +0.8 99.3 1540 -7.7 99.3 $147 +7.3 $314K +13.4 43 -25.9 1.8
REO 3 -70.0 0.4 5 -58.3 0.3 $125 +22.5 $278K +65.5 16 -72.9 1.7
Short Sale 2 -60.0 0.3 6 -57.1 0.4 $122 +17.3 $388K +70.2 163 -26.6 3.0
New Construction 223 -3.5 26.2 894 -2.0 57.6 $159 +3.9 $379K +13.8 57 -37.4 4.0

 

Canyon County 334 -1.2 100 750 -12.5 100 $120 +16.5 $215K +15.6 43 -23.2 2.2

 

The recently passed tax bill will certainly have some impact on the real estate market.  While the change in the standard deduction and the allowable deductions for state and local taxes may have some mid to long range effects on Buyer behavior, I don’t expect a wholesale change in the housing market as a result.  For many the decision to buy a home is more dependent on other factors such as pride of ownership, building equity, etc.  And here in Boise the in migration looks to continue to keep housing demand high. Windermere economist Matthew Gardner recently released his projections for the housing market in 2018. While his report is focused on the national picture it still has some relevance to our market and I think is worth a read.  I have attached the report as a PDF document for your convenience.

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  Pray for snow!

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 16, 2018 at 2:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2017

Low Inventory Flattens Sales but Not Prices

In a trend that has persisted for most of this year the number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market is being held in check because of the lack of available inventory. There were 903 closed sales in Ada County in November, down 0.1% from 2016. While we have had a few months with solid year over year gains, YTD sales overall are up a modest 3.3%, which might be surprising to many especially given all the coverage of how “crazy” the market is.  What is crazy is how little inventory there is even though demand is very high.  November inventory was 1764 which is off 9.3%,  while year to date inventory is down 13.1%.  So we have managed to squeeze 3.3% more sales out of 13.1% less inventory, a clear sign of a strong seller’s market. New construction continues to boom and provide much needed inventory but at a higher price point than resale property. In fact 49.9% of the available homes in November were new construction but the prices for those homes were at an average 30% premium over resale property.

While the average days on market has climbed somewhat to 41 from a low of 31 in July it is still well below the 60 days that is considered a stable even market.  The last time we were at 60 days or more was in February(65).  Remember Snowmageddon? All that being snowed in stuff kept people from buying and selling houses.  Even though the bulk of the nastiness was in December and January, it’s impact on the market was mostly evident in February since most sales take 30-45 days to close. In all fairness, average days on market normally is seasonal and almost always is at its highest in the winter months. Also seasonally driven, the months of available inventory edged up slightly from October and sits at 2 months even.  November was the first time this figure has reached 2 since…you guessed it, February (2.6).  Six months of inventory is considered stable and anything below 3 months is considered a strong sellers market.  The last time we broke the 3 month threshold was in January of 2016.

So with super low inventory and super high demand market prices have reacted accordingly.  When compared to 2016 we are seeing strong increases, but November’s numbers came in just slightly below the all time records that we hit in October, although we have been at or near all time highs every month since the spring.  The average price per square foot was $150 in November, up 10.3% from 2016 but down $1 from October’s record.  Meanwhile the average sale price was $308K, a tick below October’s $310K, but still up 11.2% from last November.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 903 -0.1 100 1764 -9.3 100 $150 +10.3 $308K +11.2 41 -21.2 2.0
Non Distress 897 +0.7 99.3 1750 -8.5 99.2 $150 +10.3 $308K +10.4 40 -21.6 2.0
REO 3 -66.7 0.3 4 -75.0 0.1 $84 -26.3 $183K +2.2 79 -16.0 1.3
Short Sale 3 -25.0 0.3 10 -28.6 0.6 $117 +13.6 $384K +116.9 125 -23.3 3.3
New Construction 201 -2.0 22.3 880 -3.0 49.9 $163 +8.7 $372K +12.4 67 -1.5 4.4

 

Canyon County 369 -2.1 100 797 -14.0 100 $115 +11.7 $209K +11.9 43 -12.2 2.2

 

While the Republican tax bill, if it passes, could have some nationwide impact on the housing industry, the local market factors that I have identified consistently in my reports will likely remain in place.  Low unemployment, reasonable income growth, and continued in-migration due to lifestyle and affordability (for some) will likely keep our market humming at least in the short term.  I continue to believe reduced affordability caused by quickly rising home prices outpacing income growth for locals will be the factor that has the most effect on our local market.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  Happy Holidays to all and Best Wishes for a Healthy and Prosperous New Year! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on December 13, 2017 at 1:27 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For October 2017

The Leaves May Be Falling But Prices Keep Rising 

The Boise real estate market remained a strong seller’s market in October as tight supply continues to translate into higher prices.  Closed sales (1013) were 6.6% ahead of last year while the number of homes for sale (2008) was 7.3% lower than October 2016.  While these numbers are both lower than for September, this is a reflection of the normal seasonal slowdown in the fall and winter, not a market shift.  While the months of available inventory ticked up from 1.9 to 2.0 this month, this is still an historically low figure especially for October. And homes continue to sell quickly with the average days on market dropping 22.4% from a year ago to 38 days.  The average days on market hovered right around 30 for a few months this summer but the current figure of 38 days is still far below the 60 days that is considered normal for a “stable” market.

It is no surprise given the low inventory position we are in that prices continue to rise.  What is interesting is that prices have moved in a positive direction since the market recovery began in 2011 and if anything the pace seems to be picking up in the last few months. Current prices are at or above the all time record high points that we reached this summer.   The average price per square foot stands at $151 up 9.4% from a year ago and up 1.3% from September. This is a new record. Meanwhile the average sales price in Ada County is $310,000, an increase of 10.3% year over year and tied for the record that we first hit in June of this year.  For the short term these trends are likely to continue.  At some point affordability, or the lack thereof, may force some buyers out of the market and cool things off a bit.  However the continued strong in-migration to the Boise area, low interest rates, and unemployment (2.8%) at or near record lows may allow prices to continue their upward path longer than one would normally think possible.  Many economists including Windermere’s Matthew Gardner are still predicting a mild recession in 2019 but he adds that the cause of the recession will probably not be the housing market, especially locally, and the effect on the market here could be minimal.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1013 +6.6 100 2008 -7.3 100 $151 +9.4 $310K +10.3 38 -22.4 2.0
Non Distress 1007 +7.5 99.4 1997 -6.1 99.5 $151 +9.4 $311K +9.9 38 -20.8 2.0
REO 3 -66.7 0.3 3 -84.2 0.1 $108 +11.3 $198K +11.9 14 -58.8 1.0
Short Sale 1 -66.7 0.1 6 -68.4 0.3 $103 +3.0 $160K -20.4 5 -98.5 6.0
New Construction 246 +10.8 24.3 865 -1.8 43.1 $163 +10.1 $383K +12.6 62 -19.5 3.5

 

Canyon County 412 +19.1 100 878 -10.5 100 $114 +9.6 $206K +9.6 39 -2.5 2.1

The national media is sending conflicting signals on the outlook for the housing market for the short to mid-term.  For a few years we have been hearing about the “Millennial”  generation and how they were growing up slower than previous generations, valued experiences over possessions,  and were not as keen on homeownership. This, they explained, helped fuel the rental housing market as it came back to life after the Great Recession.  Some recent articles continue to argue for this while others including the Wall Street Journal have started singing a different tune.  They cite recent research which concludes that the Millennials are now grown up and that in fact they do want to own homes and are starting to turn away from rental housing and buy their first house. It’s hard to say how much of an impact Millennials have on our market.  What I can report is that as described above the home sales market in our area is booming but at the same time our rental market remains as tight as it has ever been.  According to Park Place Property Management here in Boise, who puts out a very informative quarterly vacancy report, the third quarter vacancy rate for rental properties in Ada  County was 2.2%.  5% vacancy is more typical of a healthy rental market because of the normal “churn” that exists with leases. Of course a lot of this points back to in-migration, regardless of age group, and very low unemployment. Talk to renters and buyers alike and they will all tell you finding a place to live is tough right now.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and have a great Holiday Season.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Posted on November 17, 2017 at 11:52 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for August 2017

Market Stays Hot—Sales Up, Prices Up, Inventory Still Down

The Boise real estate market  continued to barrel forward in August and surprisingly despite continued very tight inventory closed sales were also up significantly for the month.  There were 1198 closed sales in Ada County in August a 9.3% increase from a year ago and a 6.9% jump from July.  Meanwhile inventory continued to drop from already seriously low levels.  There were 2051 homes available, a 12% drop from 2016 and based on the current rate of sales we have only 1.7 months of inventory, a slight drop from July’s 1.8 months.  Not surprisingly what inventory there is continues to sell quickly although the average days on market did increase slightly to 35 vs. 31 in July.  A very tight market no matter how you slice it.

Prices continue to respond to the pressure of low inventory and have been at or near all time levels for the last three months.  The average price per square foot at $147  (+8.9% vs 2016) is tied for the record set in July, while the average sales price of $309K (+9.2% vs 2016) is one tick below the record $310K recorded in June.   Look for these trends to continue locally for the short term.  There was actually a very good article in The Idaho Statesman this week looking at the current real estate market and specifically some of the reasons for low inventory such high building costs limiting new construction, and a nationwide tendency for people to stay in their current homes longer than before.  http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/business/article173140886.html

I would add to that list by saying I think there are some owners that are ready to sell but are trying to time the market peak.  As discussed in my report last month this is tricky business because almost by definition you won’t know when the peak is until it has passed. Once those sellers sense it has in fact come and list their homes the sudden surge of inventory can actually contribute to prices dropping further.  For now though, the combination of continued low interest rates, job growth and in-migration seem to be enough to keep the Boise market on track.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1198 +9.3 100 2051 -12.0 100 $147 +8.9 $309K +9.2 35 -10.3 1.7
Non Distress 1192 +10.2 99.5 2040 -10.8 99.5 $147 +8.1 $309K +9.2 34 -10.5 1.7
REO 3 -62.5 0.3 4 -80.0 0.2 $77 -23.8 $197K +4.8 41 -22.6 1.3
Short Sale 2 -50.0 0.3 5 -79.2 0.2 $94 -13.8 $344K -7.5 303 +75.1 2.5
New Construction 250 +12.1 20.9 752 -3.2 36.7 $160 +7.4 $362K +6.8 69 +4.5 3.0

 

Canyon County 477 +9.4 100 951 -5.7 100 $115 +13.9 $211K +12.8 33 -10.8 2.0

 

Nationally the Wall Street  Journal recently reported as far as the multi-family housing market is concerned, “the pace of improvement is slowing and cracks are starting to appear.”  They cite rapidly rising rents that caused overbuilding of apartments in some areas but also pushed some families back towards home ownership which has led to rising vacancies, stabilizing rents, and a drop in multifamily construction. It seems like that cycle has not yet played out in Boise.  Rents keep rising and apartments still seem to be going up everywhere.  The same factors that continue to drive the single family market in Boise, as noted above, are likely in play locally for rental properties as well.

I also wanted to let you know that I will be giving a very brief presentation on Housing Trends in the Treasure Valley at the Boise Neighborhood Interactive, a day of speakers and breakout sessions focused on community topics most important to you and your neighborhood. The event is being held at the Grove Hotel on Saturday, October 14.  More info: http://energize.cityofboise.org/news/pressrelease/2017/10/boise-neighborhood-interactive/

Please feel free to contact me with your comments, questions and referrals.  

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on September 15, 2017 at 10:22 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2017

Prices Reach Milestone/Record in Red Hot Market

Prices of Ada County real estate hit record highs in June spurred on by the continued lack of inventory, low interest rates, strong job growth and in-migration. Both the average sales price ($309,000) and the average price per square foot ($146) eclipsed the previous highs at the peak of the last boom in early 2007.  June was also the first month that the average sales price topped $300,000.  Conversely, inventories are at the lowest level for this time of year since prior to the last peak.  At the end of the most recent quarter there were 1982 homes for sale in Ada County, compared to 6330 for the same quarter in 2007—a difference of about 70%.  Based on the rate of sales we currently have only 1.6 months of inventory versus 9.1 months in 2007.  Even more telling is that even with 70% less inventory to choose from, closed sales in the most recent quarter (3278)were up 58% over 2007’s numbers (2087). No wonder prices are going up!  The cherry on top of how things have changed in the Boise real market in recent years is this:  In June there was only 1 short sale that closed in Ada County.  Five years ago, in 2012, the peak year for short sales in our market, 110 closed in June.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1261 +1.7 100 1982 -11.5 100 $146 +9.8 $309K +9.2 34 -19.0 1.6
Non Distress 1245 +1.8 98.7 1967 -10.3 99.2 $147 +9.7 $309K +8.8 34 -17.1 1.6
REO 7 -36.4 0.6 6 -57.1 0.3 $114 +9.6 $270K +55.2 71 +208.7 0.9
Short Sale 1 -80.0 0.1 9 -71.0 0.5 $98 -14.8 $221K -17.2 43 -83.8 9.0
New Construction 301 +25.4 23.9 723 -12.8 36.5 $159 +8.9 $365K +9.6 77 -20.6 2.4

 

Canyon County 474 +3.5 100 822 -6.8 100 $114 +14.0 $210K +16.0 30 -9.1 1.7

 

Narrowing our view a bit to compare the current market to a year ago the numbers are still pretty impressive.  After being down for the last two months, year over year monthly sales rose 1.7% in June to 1261. Sales of new construction (excluding custom build jobs) were up 25.4% and represented 23.9% of all homes sold in June. Prices continued to surge, which as I discussed last month, is starting to become a concern.  The average sales price at $309,000 was up 9.2% from 2016 while the average price per square foot was up $9.8% to $146.  Furthermore the average days on market was 34, down 19.0% from a year ago and about half as many day as is considered “normal”. And inventory, at 1982 homes for sale was off 11.5%.  Within Ada County there is quite a bit of difference in how the market is doing from area to area.  For example while sales in Meridian in general are up 16-24% in area 1030 (NW Meridian) sales were flat. And in other areas such as the North End (-8.8) and the Bench (-19.6) sales are down, presumably due to lack of inventory, while prices are up 11.4% and 9.0% respectively.

 

Ada County Percent Change in Sales and Prices by MLS Area (June 2017 vs. June 2016)

 

MLS Area Number Sold Average Sale Price
100- North Boise -8.8 +11.4
200- NE Boise 0.0 +7.7
300-SE Boise +4.7 +4.1
400- Bench -19.6 +9.0
500-South Boise -24.4 -0.4
600-West Boise +10.7 +5.6
650-W. Boise/Garden City +6.2 +0.4
700-Garden City -54.5 -8.4
800-NW Boise +10.5 +16.7
900-Eagle +1.5 +12.2
1000-SE Meridian +24.0 +19.0
1010-SW Meridian +16.7 +1.8
1020-NE Meridian +22.8 +2.3
1030-NW Meridian 0.0 +10.0
1100-Kuna +28.1 +8.2

 Please feel free to contact me with any questions and comments on this report, and stay cool!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Posted on July 13, 2017 at 5:53 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,