Boise Real Estate Market Report for August 2019

Sales Slowdown Continues in August

The number of homes sold in Ada County dropped 10% in August versus a year ago to 1113 homes, continuing a trend that has been with us for almost a full year now. Year to date sales are off 2.5% and while supply continues to increase (+2.9% in August) I still believe the primary constraint on market volume is lack of affordable supply not lack of demand.  And while the average days on market was up 30.8% from a year ago it is still at only 34 days, just over half of the 60 days that is considered indicative of a stable market. At the current rate of sales there is only 1.6 months of available inventory, well into “Strong Seller’s Market” territory.

The key words in the last paragraph were “affordable supply”, because even as unit sales have dropped prices continue to increase steadily at a rate significantly higher than overall inflation.  Unfortunately prices are also still rising faster than average wage growth in our market and an “affordability crisis” is looming (or already here). The average price per square foot in August was $180, up 7.1%, while the average sales price jumped to a new record of $398K (+8.2%). For more and more buyers, especially first timers and/or Millennials, buying a home in Ada County is out of reach.  The net effect of this continues to be muted by the influx of cash rich out of state Buyers but as the markets where those Buyers tend to come from slow down, as they are doing,  we may see a further drop off in sales, that is more demand driven. As pointed out in one of my recent reports, the “sweet spot” for the market has moved up to around $350K.  That is already too high for many buyers who already live here.  With real estate prices rising 8-10% per year and wages only going up 3-4% there is bound to be fewer qualified buyers as time goes on.  Low interest rates have helped the situation but we can’t count on them to stay low forever, even though they have done so far longer than most experts predictions.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1113 -10.0 100 1823 +2.9 100 $180 +7.1 $398K +8.2 34 +30.8 1.6
New Construction 320 +3.9 28.8 820 +2.6 45.0 $186 +6.3 $426K +1.9 57 +21.3 2.6

 

Canyon County 541 +5.7 100 764 +20.5 100 $152 +16.0 $285K +16.8 32 +23.1 1.4

 

One interesting note that would tend to support the theory that lack of affordability may be starting to have an adverse effect on sales in Ada County, is that in Canyon County, where prices are significantly lower, sales were up 5.7% ( as opposed to -10.0% in Ada County).  And not only were unit sales up but prices were way up.  The average price per square foot  ($152) was up 16.0% while the average sales price ($285K) was up 16.8%.  Compare those to Ada County where the numbers were 7.1% and 8.2% respectively, about half the rate in Canyon County.  Of course if prices keep going up at that rate it won’t be long before Canyon County has it’s own affordability crisis.

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on September 18, 2019 at 1:55 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2018

May Was Another Hot Month For Boise Real Estate

It’s starting to sound like a broken record when I report that the Boise real estate market has broken another record. But it just keeps happening. May saw record high prices yet again.  The average price per square foot jumped to $164, up $3 from April and up $21 (14.7%)  from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price also set a record at $345,000.  This is up $4,000 from April and $47,000 (+15.8%) for the year. Sellers are not only in the driver’s seat, they are in the fast lane.

The cause of these record breaking prices is no secret and has been the case for many months—extremely low inventory and very high demand. Boise continues to be “discovered” as a great place to live with good job growth and reasonable costs of living compared to our west coast neighbors.  Boise seems to make just about every list for desirability of late and people are moving here.  That coupled with few existing owners leaving or listing their homes has put us in a pinch.  While closed sales (1242) rose 12.7% in May, available inventory (1323) was down 28.3% from a year ago.  If you notice those two numbers are pretty close together meaning homes are selling almost as fast as they come on the market.  Further indication of this is that we currently only have 1.1 months of inventory, which is probably also a record.  Builders are building as fast as they can and they are definitely having an impact.  334 new homes (listed in the MLS) sold in May up a whopping 51.8%.  This number represents 26.9% of all the homes sold while new home inventory accounted for 46.2% of all inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1242 +12.7 100 1323 -28.3 100 $164 +14.7 $345K +15.8 36 0.0 1.1
New Construction 334 +51.8 26.9 611 -23.0 46.2 $170 +14.1 $382K +13.0 80 -12.1 1.8

 

Canyon County 512 +8.5 100 539 -28.0 100 $126 +13.5 $229K +14.5 30 -14.3 1.1

Of course the big question is how long will the market be able to maintain the current pace?  The exact timing of market swings are pretty hard to predict but there are some signs that we may be getting close to either a slowdown or possibly even somewhat of a correction.  For one, we have seen prices rising for seven solid years in a row. Secondly, interest rates have risen modestly and there are indications they will rise further especially if inflation picks up. Thirdly, as prices continue to rise and inventory remains low more and more people will either get priced out of the market or simply give up looking.  This doesn’t seem to have deterred many of the cash heavy out of state buyers looking to move here.  Those buyers ability to make the move to Boise hinges on their ability to sell for a large profit in the current home markets, particularly the west coast.  There are some indications that those market maybe starting to slow down and that we could see a gradual trickledown effect if those market do in fact slow down.  One thing is for sure—real estate is both cyclical and local.  It’s not a matter of if the market will slow it’s when, and while what happens in other markets may have some effect here local factors have a much bigger impact.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments, and referrals.  You may have noticed that I did not break out the numbers for distressed properties this month.  In recent months the number of distressed properties in the Boise market has dropped so low there really is no significance to them other than merely reporting how low they are. I hope distressed properties continue to be statistically irrelevant for many years to come. Have a great summer!

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on June 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For September 2017

Inventory Squeeze Continues and Prices Surge

The Boise real estate market remained a strong Seller’s market in September even as the normal seasonal trend towards the slower winter months continued.  While closed sales in September (1099) were 10% below August, they were up 2.3% vs. September 2016. Furthermore the number of homes for sale (2098) was down 10.9% from a year ago and inventory remained below 2 months for the 7th straight month.  Home continue to sell quickly—the average days on market was 35.  This figure has been at 36 days or lower for the last four months after being as high as 65 days as recently as February. You will recall that 60 days is considered a stable neutral market.

Prices through most of the recent strong seller’s market have remained mostly in check, meaning increases were generally sustainable given current inflation and wage growth. In the last few months things seem to be heating up with regards to prices. We are far from the dreaded bubble and the underlying foundation of the market is much different than in the past but it does bear watching.  My general rule is that annual price gains of 10% or more over a period of several months or longer are not sustainable.  The average price per square foot at $149 was up 11.2% from 2016 while the average sales price ($304K) was up 8.6%. These numbers have been hovering on either side of the 10% mark for the last few months but as prices continue to rise affordability will drop meaning buyers get less house for their money and some leave the ranks of buyers all together by being priced out.  Income growth at 3-4% annually isn’t keeping up, and unlike in the previous strong market when buyers simply borrowed more to cover the gap, lending and underwriting is much stricter now so the chances of a full on bubble are much lower.  Eventually though dwindling affordability will be a catalyst for a market slow down which may come as soon as next year or hold off until what some predict will be a widespread recession in 2019. A Wall Street Journal Article on October 2nd with the headline “Cracks in the Housing Rally”  starts out saying, “The post crisis home price recovery is beginning to look vulnerable”.  The article cites slowing housing sales and starts on a national scale and goes on to say that household formation is slumping and affordability is being pressured by low wage growth and rising (still very low) interest rates. Some of these national trends certainly hold true for our market although real estate is primarily influenced by local factors.  One positive factor in our market that is not true nationally is continued strong in-migration from the west coast of people seeking quality of life and affordable (for them) housing. That may serve to keep the market going longer than would otherwise be true.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1099 +2.3 100 2098 -10.9 100 $149 +11.2 $304K +8.6 35 -27.1 1.9
Non Distress 1093 +3.1 99.5 2090 -9.6 99.6 $149 +10.4 $304K +8.2 35 -25.5 1.9
REO 3 -50.0 0.3 2 -90.0 0.1 $98 +12.6 $162K -48.2 38 -20.8 0.7
Short Sale 1 -83.3 0.1 6 -71.4 0.3 $103 -5.5 $322K +70.4 16 -94.5 6.0
New Construction 239 +1.7 21.7 810 -3.1 38.6 $162 +11.0 $364K +10.0 64 -34.7 3.4

 

Canyon County 441 +8.9 100 989 -3.5 100 $117 +10.4 $210K +11.7 32 -25.6 2.2

Please feel free to contact me with any questions and comments.  Have a great fall!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Posted on October 16, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

The Gardner Report–Idaho Real Estate Report for 2nd Quarter 2017

Windermere economist Matthew Gardner recently released a very informative report on the Idaho real estate market.  While it confirms what most of us already know–that inventory is tight and prices are rising, it contains some surprising nuggets as well.  Concise and easy to read it is well worth a look.  Here is a link to the complete report: The Gardner Report-Idaho

Or you can print or download as a PDF file:The Gardner Report-Idaho PDF

 

Posted on August 8, 2017 at 2:30 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2017

Low Inventory Continues to Hurt Sales Volume and Boost Prices

For the second month in a row closed sales were down in Ada County in May primarily due to inventories that continue to dwindle even as demand remains very high. 1076 homes sold in May, 3.3% below last year’s total, while year to date sales are down 1%. Inventories keep dropping however—in May there were 14.8% fewer homes available than last May while year to date inventory is down 16.5%.  Based on the current rate of sales there is only 1.7 months of available inventory.  Remember 6 months of inventory is considered a stable market and anything 3 or lower is a strong seller’s market.  Suffice it to say at 1.7 months we are in a very strong seller’s market.  And what inventory does exist is selling faster than ever.  Average days on market dropped to 37 (-15.9%), with 60 days being the norm.

Needless to say the combination of low inventory and high demand caused prices to surge in May.  While we have been in a fairly similar market situation for over a year now for the most part price increases have been relatively moderate, in 5-8% range annually.  In May prices took things up a notch.  The average price per square foot at $144, was up 9.1%, while the average sales price jumped 10.3% to $299,000.  While these numbers will certainly catch the attention of the “bubble hawks”, I don’t think there is reason to panic at this point.  However it does bear watching as the concern is that if homes increases are far out pacing earnings growth then the market becomes imbalanced.   Barring a major macroeconomic shift (ie: worldwide recession, war, etc.) I think the continuing job growth and in-migration to the Boise area will keep demand relatively strong even as some buyers are forced out of the market by rising prices and interest rates.  I believe the foundation of the market is strong enough to allow for a gentler slow down in the market than we saw 10 years ago.  One concern I do have is that first time buyers, who drive the market by allowing many current owners the opportunity to move up when they sell, are the most likely to be forced out of the market due to price and interest rate increases.  This is already a problem in some of our larger, higher priced neighboring cities.  In migration from wealthier markets to Boise can mask this somewhat, but the market needs first time home buyers to stay healthy in the long run.

Some builders it seems are reworking their floor plans and price points to be more accessible to first time and millennial buyers and as a result prices increases for new construction have recently lagged behind resale.  While the average price point for new construction is still significantly higher than  for resale the gap has narrowed slightly in recent months.  And while the average price per square foot for resale jumped 10.9% in May, for new construction it only rose 2.8%. Similarly, while the average sales price for resale increased 12%, new construction prices were up only 3.4%.  This of course only reflects production builders and spec homes and doesn’t take into account the custom build jobs that aren’t reported in the MLS.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1076 -3.3 100 1846 -14.8 100 $144 +9.1 $299K +10.3 37 -15.9 1.7
Non Distress 1062 -2.1 98.7 1832 -13.5 99.2 $144 +9.1 $300K +9.9 37 -14.0 1.7
REO 6 -57.1 0.6 6 -64.7 0.3 $98 -3.0 $212K +20.5 51 +104.0 1.0
Short Sale 2 -81.8 0.2 8 -71.4 0.8 $95 +5.6 $245K +26.3 23 -89.2 4.0
New Construction 217 +1.9 20.2 793 -6.3 43.0 $149 +2.8 $339K +3.4 91 -13.3 3.7

 

Canyon County 469 +14.7 100 749 -4.0 100 $111 +12.1 $200K +11.1 35 -31.4 1.6

While it is impossible to accurately predict when the market will peak and how dramatically it will adjust itself, one thing is for certain, real estate has and likely always will be cyclical and local.  So while the Boise market may not be in lock step with surrounding areas or the country as a whole we will go through up and down cycles just like everywhere else. We have been on a pretty strong run for the last six years, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market here in Boise start to shift in the next 6-9 months.  A gradual drop in prices and surge of inventory could actually be a good thing in the long run. Please feel free, as always, to contact me with your questions and comments and enjoy your summer once it finally really gets here!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published June 2017, based on data available at the end of May 2017, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on June 15, 2017 at 12:42 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2017

Market Taps the Brakes Due to Severe Winter Weather

 

As expected the severe winter weather we all experienced in December and January had a negative impact on closings in February and will probably have an impact on March sales as well.  After being up 18.8% in January versus 2016 there were 549 closed sales in February a 12.4% drop from a year ago and an 8.4% drop from January. Typically January is the slowest month of the year for closings so the fact that February had fewer closings is significant but I believe was almost entirely due to weather.  The fact that 2016 was a leap year may have had a minor effect on the sales totals as well. Other market indicators remain strong and I expect by April trends will rebound on the sales front.  If you compare the most recent quarter  with the same quarter last year the market trends smooth out and we are actually still about 1% ahead of last year in closings.

 

Lack of inventory continues to be a problem especially in the lower end of the market.  There were 1444 homes available in  a 20.3% year over year drop. This has been pretty consistent  for the last several months.  The average days on market did go up from 55 days in January to 65 in February, again weather related.  Because of the lower rate of sales in February the months of available inventory ticked slightly higher to 2.6 months.  Remember however that anything below 3 months of inventory is still considered a strong seller’s market. It is also interesting to see that for the second straight month nearly 60% of all the available inventory was new construction (either built or to be built and listed in the MLS).  That number is more typically in the 35-45% range.

 

The weather related drop in sales did not negatively impact prices in February. In fact quite the opposite.  The average price per square foot ($139) was up 7.8% from a year ago and 4.5% over January.  The average sales price rose 10.7% year over year to $290K.  This is borderline bubble territory but may be a blip rather than a trend as the average sales price in January was only up 1.9%.  Even new construction prices were up a robust 8.1% in February.  While the average price point for new construction is generally 15-20% higher than for resale, the price increase trend line for new construction has generally lagged behind that for resale properties.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 549 -12.4 100 1444 -20.3 100 $139 +7.8 $290K +10.7 65 -7.1 2.6
Non Distress 537 -12.4 97.8 1422 -18.5 98.5 $140 +7.7 $291K +10.2 65 -5.8 2.6
REO 8 +60.0 1.5 13 -23.5 0.9 $111 +9.9 $224K +10.3 23 -70.5 1.6
Short Sale 3 -57.1 0.5 8 -82.6 0.6 $112 +21.7 $283K +86.2 273 +96.4 2.7
New Construction 162 +15.7 29.5 828 -3.2 57.3 $150 +5.6 $347K +8.1 95 -13.6 5.1

 

 

I believe we will shake the weather caused sales drop by April and this spring should prove to be very active in the Boise market.  Continued job growth and in-migration will keep demand high.  The lack of inventory and slowly rising interest rates may provide somewhat of a counterbalance but in general the forecast at least for the remainder of this year is for the strong seller’s market to continue. Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and I love those referrals!

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

Posted on March 18, 2017 at 1:52 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2017

The Weather Outside Was Frightful, But The Market Was Quite Delightful

By any measure the winter weather in Boise since mid December has been difficult but the Boise real estate market has not yet felt any major effects.  After a slight dip in closed sales in December caused not by the weather, but by an odd spike in December 2015 closings, the market had a very strong performance in January. Closed sales in Ada County numbered 589 which is an 18.8% increase over last year.  January is by far the slowest month of the year for closings but we are still off to a good start for the year.  To put the seasonal swings of the real estate market in Boise  in context consider that in June, the busiest month for sales in 2016, there were 1240 closings—over twice as many as January.  And while the weather did not seem to affect closings in January, it did affect pended sales, an indicator of future closings in February and March.  Quite simply with frigid temperatures, deep snow, often nearly impassable side roads and several days of school closures January was not a good month to be out looking at houses.  As a result pending sales dropped 5% in January and the number of homes available also dropped sharply (-19.4%) although this is only slightly more than the trend (-14%) in recent months.  There were almost certainly some houses that might have listed in January had they not suffered water damage either due to ice dams, broken pipes, or crawlspace flooding.  The disaster clean up companies have been absolutely swamped.  I expect both pending sales and the number of homes for sale to start recovering quickly though and the demand is clearly still there.  We are sitting on 2.5 months of inventory and the average days on market is 55.  Both these figures are about 30% lower than a year ago.  That makes sense given that we are selling 18.8% more homes with 19.4% less inventory than last January.

Prices do continue to rise but the increases still are well within the range that I often refer to as “sustainable”.  The average price per square foot ($133) was up 6.4% over 2016 while the average sales price was actually only up 1.9%.  Interest rates remain somewhat higher than what the pre-election norm has been but 30 year fixed rates at or just below 4% are popping up again and interest rates are not putting any downward pressure on prices at this point.  Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist for Windermere, predicts rates will ease up to about 4.6% by the end of the year and while this could put a squeeze on some buyers as far as qualifying, he also feels that the likelihood of further rate increases as well as a tightening labor market will drive millennials and other first time home buyers off the fence and into home ownership.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 589 +18.8 100 1456 -19.4 100 $133 +6.4 $267K +1.9 55 -29.5 2.5
Non Distress 574 +21.4 97.5 1439 -17.3 98.8 $134 +6.3 $270K +1.5 54 -31.6 2.5
REO 14 -12.5 2.4 7 -63.2 0.5 $99 0.0 $175K +4.8 71 +24.6 0.5
Short Sale 1 -80.0 0.2 10 -79.2 0.7 $91 -9.9 $168K -36.6 330 +352.1 10.0
New Construction 133 +23.1 22.6 867 -2.8 59.5 $150 +8.7 $330K +1.9 81 -36.2 6.5

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and your referrals are always greatly appreciated. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Property Search and My Listings: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

Posted on February 17, 2017 at 11:08 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2016

Sales Off Slightly In December But Prices Rising, Inventory Tight 

There were 830 closed residential sales in December which was 3.7% below a year ago.  December was the first month in recent memory that didn’t register a year over year sales increase.  Fortunately there was a reason for that and I do not believe this is the beginning of a market slowdown.  December 2015 was an extraordinarily active month and appears as a spike on the sales graph for that year.  Without that spike we likely would have had another month of increased sales.  And pending sales, a good indicator of future market activity, were up 32.1% in December so the outlook for January and February is strong.  It remains to be seen what if any effect the prolonged period of wintry weather will have on sales.  This would likely manifest itself in a reduction in closings scheduled for late February or March. I believe this would be a temporary setback though.

Low inventory continues to be a concern as demand remains strong at most price points.  1696 homes were listed for sale in December, a 13% drop from a year ago and at the current rate of sales our inventory stands at 2 months.  This is considered a strong indicator of a seller’s market since 6 months of inventory  is considered a  stable or neutral market. Furthermore, what inventory there is has been selling faster.  The average days on market was 59, a 7.8% drop from last year.  59 days is actually significantly higher than it was earlier in the year but I believe that is more of a seasonal fluctuation than an indication of a market slow down. The builders have certainly responded to the lack of re-sale inventory by ramping up projects and currently 52.9% of all the homes for sale in Ada County are new construction.  Historically this number has been in the 30’s or low 40’s.

As expected given how tight supply is, prices have responded but still seem to  be rising at a reasonable “sustainable” rate when overall inflation is factored in.  The average sales price for all homes in December was $276,000 (+5.3%).  Interestingly, the average sales price for new construction ($333,000) was actually down 2.6%.  This could be due to builders adjusting their product mix to where they feel the market is or could be a reaction to the fact I alluded to above—over 50% of current inventory is new construction. The fact that the average price per square foot for new builds rose 7.7% ($153), while the average sales price dropped, might suggest the production builders are reducing floor plan size slight but I have not researched that thoroughly.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 830 -3.7 100 1696 -13.0 100 $137 +8.7 $276K +5.3 59 -7.8 2.0
Non Distress 816 -2.7 98.3 1668 -11.0 98.3 $137 +8.7 $277K +4.9 58 -7.9 2.0
REO 9 +28.6 1.1 12 -29.4 0.7 $100 +22.0 $169K -12.0 50 +8.7 1.3
Short Sale 5 -66.7 0.6 14 -75.4 0.8 $104 0.0 $228K +22.6 222 +76.2 2.8
New Construction 226 +11.3 27.2 912 -1.0 53.8 $153 +7.7 $333K -2.6 92 -2.1 4.0

As mentioned in my report last month, the two main uncertainties for the national real estate market moving forward into 2017 are interest rates and regulatory climate. After a quick spike right after the election things settled back down.  Many do feel that rates will rise somewhat in the coming year whether organically or indirectly due to action by the Federal Reserve. Either way this could slow the market down a bit if the costs of borrowing increase substantially. On the regulatory side, the incoming administration has made many promises concerning rolling back regulations which could open up opportunities for some buyers.  This would effectively stimulate sales.  So a mixed bag ahead.

Thanks as always for the great comments and questions and keep those referrals coming!  I hope you and your homes make it safely through the winter.  I know many of you, myself included, have had to deal with weather related property damage or other issues.  Keep on the sunny side!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax


camjohnson@windermere.com

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change 1/1/2017 – 1/8/2017 12/1/2016 – 12/8/2016 % Change
For Sale 1696 1945 -12.8% 1696 1949 -13% 5807 6582 -11.8% 1668 1872 -10.9%
Sold 830 904 -8.2% 830 862 -3.7% 2684 2375 13% 79 193 -59.1%
Pended 692 778 -11.1% 692 524 32.1% 2411 2093 15.2% 133 239 -44.4%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change
Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold) 137 136 0.7% 137 126 8.7% 137.02 126.64 8.2%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change
Avg CDOM 59 52 13.5% 59 64 -7.8% 53 57 -7%
Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 98 98 0% 98 97 1% 98 97 1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change 1/1/2017 – 1/8/2017 12/1/2016 – 12/8/2016 % Change
Avg. Active Price 362 362 0% 362 338 7.1% 361 341 5.9% 365 365 0%
Avg. Sold Price 276 277 0.4% 276 262 5.3% 278 265 4.9% 271 270 0.4%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change 1/1/2017 – 1/8/2017 12/1/2016 – 12/8/2016 % Change
Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 2 2.2 -9.3% 2 2.3 -13.3% 2.2 2.8 -21.6% 21.1 9.7 117.5%

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published January 2017, based on data available at the end of December 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on January 12, 2017 at 5:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2016

November was a Hot Month for Boise Real Estate Sales

 

While the temperatures may have been dropping, if anything, the Boise real estate market was heating up.  Closed sales at 885 were 32.3% ahead of 2015 despite the continued lack of adequate inventory.  The number of homes for sale dropped 9.7% from a year ago to 1945 and this translated into 2.2 months of inventory—still firmly in “strong seller’s market” territory.  Not surprisingly home are selling on average 10 faster than last year with the average days on market currently sitting at 52.  Whatever pre-election jitters people may have had did not deter people from buying homes in Boise.

 

Speaking of the election, The Wall Street Journal proclaimed “Home Loans Enter Uncertain Era” in a November 14th headline.  They were referring to potential changes that may occur under the new administration and cited two main areas of concern—interest rates and regulation.  While it remains to be seen what will happen long term with interest rates for the short term the roughly ½ point spike that occurred right after the election has already started to reverse itself and has had no major impact on the market.  As for regulation, speculation is that Trump and a Republican controlled Congress wil look to loosen lending regulations and therefore allow more people to purchase homes.  While this is generally positive, too much freedom has consequences lest we forget the lessons learned in the last bust.  The new regulations have been very effective in preventing the type of bubble that many markets, Boise included, experienced 10-12 years ago. So while I believe a common sense look at what regulations could be modified or repealed is good, I also appreciate that with the new rules our market has prospered and maintained sustainable price increases since 2011.

 

November is a good example of that.  While sales jumped over 30% and inventory is very tight, prices continue to rise at only a moderate clip especially when one adjusts for overall inflation.  The average sales price in Ada County in November was $277,000 up 3.7% while the average price per square foot jumped 7.1% to $136.  As I reported last month prices are basically at record highs now even compared to the peak in 2006.  One difference with our current situation is that the increase in prices has been, for the most part, slow and steady and has taken a full 5 years to get back to those 2006 levels.  If you remember, the rate at which prices were increasing starting in 2004 through 2006 was much steeper. Anyone could get a loan so prices took off.  This time around that is not the case and the growth in the market has been much more “real” in my opinion.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 885 +32.3 100 1945 -9.7 100 $136 +7.1 $277K +3.7 52 -10.3 2.2
Non Distress 872 +35.4 98.5 1913 -7.4 98.4 $136 +6.3 $279K +3.3 51 -8.9 2.2
REO 9 -25.0 1.0 16 -20.0 0.8 $114 +12.9 $179K -11.8 94 +32.4 1.8
Short Sale 4 -60.0 0.5 14 -78.5 0.7 $103 +24.1 $177K +0.6 163 +32.5 3.5
New Construction 202 +41.3 22.8 907 +3.2 46.6 $149 +1.4 $328K -8.6 67 -15.2 4.5

 

Just for comparison sake even though this report covers only Ada County, I ran the number for Canyon County (Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, etc.) and the trends are very similar albeit on a smaller scale.  Closed sales were up 31.2% while inventory is down 5.5%.  Average sale price at $186K is up 8.8% while the average price per square foot at $103 was up 7.3%.  There are 2.5 months of inventory in Canyon County and the average days on market is 49 which is down 15% from a year ago.  Very impressive numbers indeed.

 

Thanks as always for your comments, questions, and referrals.  I hope you and yours all have a fantastic Holiday season and 2017 brings health, happiness, and

prosperity.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Property Search and My Listings: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

Current Boise Real Estate Market Data

 

P Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail.

 

 

 

From: camjohnson@windermere.com [mailto:camjohnson@windermere.com]
Sent: Thursday, December 08, 2016 2:40 PM
To: Cam Johnson
Subject: Cam Johnson’s Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for November 2016

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
For Sale 1945 2166 -10.2% 1945 2154 -9.7% 6466 7205 -10.3% 1864 2119 -12%
Sold 885 950 -6.8% 885 669 32.3% 2909 2424 20% 163 155 5.2%
Pended 804 949 -15.3% 804 738 8.9% 2679 2419 10.7% 216 228 -5.3%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold) 136 138 -1.4% 136 127 7.1% 135.91 126.62 7.3% 134 137 -2.2%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Avg CDOM 52 49 6.1% 52 58 -10.3% 50 53 -5.7% 46 51 -9.8%
Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 98 98 0% 98 98 0% 98 97 1% 97 98 -1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Avg. Active Price 362 359 0.8% 362 344 5.2% 360 342 5.3% 365 365 0%
Avg. Sold Price 277 281 -1.4% 277 267 3.7% 279 263 6.1% 268 282 -5%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Sep. 2015 – Nov. 2016)
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Nov. 16 Oct. 16 % Change Nov. 16 Nov. 15 % Change Sep. 16 to Nov. 16 Sep. 15 to Nov. 15 % Change 12/1/2016 – 12/7/2016 11/1/2016 – 11/7/2016 % Change
Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 2.2 2.3 -4.4% 2.2 3.2 -31.1% 2.2 3 -26.9% 11.4 13.7 -16.8%

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published December 2016, based on data available at the end of November 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on December 13, 2016 at 11:47 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for October 2016

Another Strong Month for Boise Real Estate With Record High Prices

October was more of the same for the Boise Real Estate market.  The defining trends of this year remained in place last month: Sales and prices are up and inventory is tight.  There were 926 closed residential sales in Ada County in October which is up 9.7% from a year ago.  Inventory meanwhile continued to drop and it remains a strong seller’s market.  The 2166 homes listed for sale was 12.6% below last October while the average days on market at 49 was unchanged.  At the current rate of sales we have 2.3 months of inventory. This is the 9th straight month inventory has been below 3 months which is widely considered the threshold of a strong seller’s market.  Pending sales (974) were up 17.6% indicating that the market should end the year on a strong note as well.

Prices rose as well to no one’s surprise.  The average price per square foot rose to $138, 8.7% above a year ago and the highest in over 9 years.  The average sales price meanwhile jumped to $282,000 (+6.0%) which I believe is an all time record for Ada County.  We have definitely returned to levels not seen since the last peak in 2006.  Fortunately, the market doesn’t seem to be exhibiting the classic signs of a bubble, probably due to tighter lending standards and more caution on the part of home owners and home buyers.  Real estate is cyclical though so we should expect there to be some level of correction at some point.  Windermere economist Matthew Gardner expects things to slow down in 2018 and furthermore does not predict any real market shift due to the election.  There is some speculation though that a Trump administration reversal of some of the market calming safeguards put in place during the Obama years could allow things to overheat. I believe that will not happen but it remains to be seen.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 926 +9.7 100 2166 -12.6 100 $138 +8.7 $282K +6.0 49 0.0 2.3
Non Distress 914 +11.1 98.7 2127 -10.7 98.2 $139 +8.6 $283K +6.0 48 +2.1 2.3
REO 8 -20.0 0.9 19 -13.6 0.9 $98 +15.3 $175K -11.2 31 -60.3 2.4
Short Sale 3 -72.7 0.3 19 -73.2 0.9 $100 -1.0 $201K -13.7 341 +87.4 6.3
New Construction 221 +39.9 23.9 881 +5.0 40.7 $148 +2.8 $340K +0.3 77 +37.5 4.0

 

Thank you as always for your comments and questions.  I have heard from several of you that you forward my report to friends and family each month.  If they so desire I would be happy to add them to my mailing list to save you a step.  I hope you and your loved ones have a fabulous Thanksgiving!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Posted on November 15, 2016 at 2:42 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,