Boise Real Estate Market Report for March 2019

In Spite of Rising Supply Prices Hit New Record in March 

Good news and bad news for home buyers in the Boise Real Estate Market in March.  After years of record low inventory, supply has started to build, giving Buyers more choices. In spite of this and a recent trend of lower sales volume, prices continue to go up and reached new record highs in March thus reducing Buyer’s buying power.

There were 877 closed sales in March in Ada County a drop of 6.6% from a year ago. This continues a generally negative sales trend that began last July, after several years of increasing unit sales volume. Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale (1489) was up 20.4%, marking the 5th straight month of year over year increases and the 3rd month of double digit percentage increases in supply.  Inventory at 1.7 months based on the current rate of sales, is still below the 2 month threshold that the market has struggled to top in the last two years and while inventory is increasing we are still in what is considered a strong seller’s market. You may remember, 6 months of inventory is considered a stable market where buyers and sellers have roughly equal leverage in negotiations. We haven’t seen that much inventory in at least 5 years. The average days on market, reflecting higher supply and lower sales, has also been on the rise, and at 51 days is 15.9% above last March. This is approaching the 60 days that many consider indicative of a “stable” market.

Any additional leverage buyers may have gained in the last few months because of the rise in supply is not being reflected in prices so far. The average price per square foot in the Boise Real Estate Market jumped 11.5% to $174/sf, a new record high.  Similarly, the average sales price jumped to $375,000, a 10% increase over last year and also a new record high. The average sales price jumped $16,000 from February although this was probably the result of a handful of high dollar closings in March rather than a true reflection of the market. The only good news for buyers as far as pricing goes is that interest rates remain near historical lows and the consensus is that they will remain relatively stable for the remainder of this year.  Lenders also seem to be getting creative as far as offering new products that will help buyers getting squeezed by higher prices  find an acceptable alternative to a “vanilla” conventional loan. Fortunately we are not seeing a widespread return to the types of irresponsible lending that occurred during the 2004-2007 boom.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 877 -6.6 100 1489 +20.4 100 $174 +11.5 $375K +10.0 51 +15.9 1.7
New Construction 325 +19.9 37.1 819 +19.7 55.0 $176 +10.7 $405K +10.4 87 +10.1 2.5

 

Canyon County 381 -11.6 100 615 +10.6 100 $137 +12.3 $253K +5.0 45 -11.8 1.6

 

New construction continues to drive the market even as supply of existing homes starts to tick up. While overall sales of homes were down 6.6%, sales of new homes surged 19.9% and represented 37.1% of all sales in March.  Supply is also rising with 819 new homes listed (+19.7%) representing 55% of all available homes for sale. Despite all the apartment building going on there seem to be plenty of buyers for new single family homes. As summer approaches expect new construction to continue to flourish.

Overall, buyers have more properties to choose from but continue to feel the pressure on affordability and buying power as strong demand causes prices to keep rising. Expect more of the same as 2019 rolls on although I do expect a gradual flattening in the price curve if the current trend towards higher supply and lower sales continues. With the spring and summer selling season kicking into gear things will continue to be challenging for buyers particularly in the under $300k segment of the market.  Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on April 13, 2019 at 10:15 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2019

More Options For Homebuyers This Spring, Market Continues to Calm

Based on your feedback and a desire to make this report even easier to digest in a short amount of time I am trying a new format this month. Rather than “conversational” text this month’s highlights will be presented in bullet point form. Please feel free to let me know what you think. A spreadsheet and graphs are included as always, but the bullet points are intended to summarize and highlight that information.

• Number of homes for sale 1455 (+18.2% vs Feb 2018)
• 4th straight month of positive year over year inventory, 2nd month in a row of double digit increases
• Closed sales (707) up 1.7% in February
• First monthly increase since October. Sales trend has been generally negative since last July
• Inventory at 2.1 months, 4th straight month over 2.0 after being at or below 2 for well over a year
• Average Days on Market at 52, highest since February 2018
• Average Days on Market are twice what they were in August (26)
• Average price per square foot in Ada County $171, up 11% vs 2018
• Lowest percentage increase in one year
• Average Sales Price $360K, up 6.8%
• Lowest percentage increase in almost 2 years
• New construction inventory up 23.4% (901), Sales up 14.3%
• 37.2% of homes sold in February were new construction
• 61.9% of homes for sale in February were new construction
• In Canyon County sales and inventory trends similar to Ada County but prices continue to surge
• Average $/sf +20.5%, Average sale price +19.2%

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 707 +1.7 100 1455 +18.2 100 $171 +11.0 $360K +6.8 52 -13.3 2.1
New Construction 263 +14.3 37.2 901 +23.4 61.9 $174 +7.4 $403K +4.7 78 -11.4 3.4

 

Canyon County 298 -4.2 100 643 +18.0 100 $141 +20.5 $255K +19.2 44 -21.4 2.2

 

 

Cam Johnson
Realtor®
Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley
1412 W Idaho St.
Suite 120
Boise, ID 83702
208-258-2222 Office
208-283-3664 Cell
208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on March 21, 2019 at 11:48 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For April 2017

Lack of Inventory Takes a Bite Out of Sales—Not Prices 

It was easy to blame slow sales in February and March on the weather in December and January, but weather should not really have affected April sales. Most contracts that closed in April were probably written in late February or March, long after the severe winter weather had abated.  But for the third straight month sales in April were either down or virtually flat from a year ago.  894 residential sales closed in April, an 8.2% drop from a year ago. I believe the culprit at least in April was the continuing drop in inventory especially of pre-existing homes.  Of the 1697 total homes for sale in Ada County 47.6% were new construction.  And while total inventory was 13.9% lower than a year ago, the inventory of pre-existing homes was off 24%.  At the current rate of sales overall inventory stands at just 1.9 months, indicator of a strong seller’s market. And what homes do come on the market are selling more quickly.  The average days on market dropped 12% to 44 days.

So this issue is not demand, it is supply.  Current homeowners are reluctant to sell when they see prices continuing to rise while a relatively strong economy and continued low interest rates is prompting buyers to act now before prices and or rates price them out of the market. Add the continued strong in-migration to Idaho from not only the west coast but nationwide and you have the recipe for strong competition between buyers and rising prices.  Especially in the lower price points, multiple offers and price escalations have become the norm.  And while the rate at which prices are rising has remained fairly moderate, the length of time that they have been rising has pushed us into record territory.  You may have seen the story on KTVB this week reporting that Boise was one of only 6 metro areas nationwide that hit record high real estate prices in February. That in and of itself is unusual, as prices typically reach highs in the most active time of the year for the market: summer. And February of this year saw sales drop significantly at least partly due to the weather in the two months preceding. In April the average price per square foot reached $140 a 6.1% increase over 2016 while the average sales price was up 7.9% to $288,000.  Oddly enough the average sales price of new construction, while at a $50K higher price point than resale, dropped slightly in April.  I believe some builders are adjusting their floor plans to appeal to buyers who are finding little to buy in the way of resale under $300,000.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 894 -8.2 100 1697 -13.9 100 $140 +6.1 $288K +7.9 44 -12.0 1.9
Non Distress 881 -6.5 98.5 1673 -13.0 98.6 $141 +6.8 $289K +7.0 44 -6.4 1.9
REO 9 -57.1 1.0 9 -30.8 0.5 $107 +1.9 $187K -0.5 55 -17.9 1.0
Short Sale 2 -77.8 0.2 11 -66.7 0.6 $105 +2.9 $187K +2.7 43 -82.4 5.5
New Construction 201 +4.7 22.5 808 +0.6 47.6 $148 +3.5 $329K -0.6 111 -6.7 4.0

 

Canyon County 380 -4.8 100 686 -11.6 100 $109 +7.9 $196K +6.5 43 -15.7 1.8

Many economists continue to predict that we are a year or less away from the latest peak and that while there should not be a wholesale collapse of the market like we saw from 2008-2010, there will at least be a change in direction for the market.  Once current owners suspect the peak is near expect inventory to increase  quickly while at the same time rising prices and more significantly, rising interest rates, force some buyers to drop out of the market.  Couple rising inventory with a steady or slowly shrinking buyer pool and prices may begin to respond. Nothing is for certain of course!  Please feel to contact me with your questions and comments and have a great summer. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published May 2017, based on data available at the end of April 2017, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on May 15, 2017 at 3:52 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2016

January is the slowest month of the year for Boise Real Estate, but this one was better than most.

After an exceptional December to end 2015, the Boise real estate market returned to earth with more typical numbers for January, albeit good ones.  Both sales and prices rose moderately year over year and inventory remains down although based on the slower rate of sales, the months of available inventory actually shot up last month.

There were 489 closed sales in January, up 6.3% from 2015, but down 40% from December’s impressive 814 closed sales.  Pending sales also looked good in January, up 14.7%, an encouraging indicator for sales in coming months.  Inventory continues to fall however.  There were 1807 homes available in Ada County, a drop of 11.5% from January 2015.  However the average days on market actually jumped by 15 days from December to 78,  but this was still 6% fewer days than last year.  Fewer homes sell in the winter and those that do sell take longer to do so.  The rate of sales directly affects the months of available inventory so while robust sales in December meant there was only 2.4 months of inventory available, January’s slower sales jumped us to 3.7 months of inventory despite there actually being about 150 fewer homes available to sell.

Despite sales being up in double digits most of last year and inventories being almost painfully low, the classic recipe for a price bubble, somehow prices have managed to increase only moderately, which is good news! While it is undoubtedly a seller’s market prices have not gone haywire.  The average price per square foot, at $125, was up a healthy 5.9% from a year ago, while the average sale price at $262K was up 6.5%.  And with interest rates still very low there seems to be plenty of demand despite having to pay higher prices.  This scenario will likely continue for at least 6 months as the Fed seems once again timid about tampering with rates given recent world market turmoil and shaky numbers for the US economy.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

489

+6.3

100

1807

-11.5

100

$125

+5.9

$262K

+6.5

78

-6.0

3.7

Non Distress

466

+11.8

95.3

1739

-8.6

96.2

$126

+4.1

$266K

+4.3

79

-1.2

3.7

REO

16

-33.3

3.3

19

-60.4

1.1

$99

+4.2

$167K

-4.0

57

-12.3

1.2

Short Sale

5

-73.7

1.0

48

-44.8

2.7

$101

+21.7

$265K

+69.9

73

-62.0

9.6

New Construction

104

-7.1

21.3

892

+5.3

49.4

$139

+1.5

$326K

+2.2

130

+38.3

8.6

 

I hope everyone’s new year is off to a great start.  I have managed to find time to enjoy the great skiing while still staying busy in real estate.  Please feel free to contact me with you questions and comments.  And please keep those referrals coming!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Facts and Trends

TM

Published February 2016*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

>

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

For Sale

1807

1949

 

-7.3%

1807

2041

 

-11.5%

5910

6652

 

-11.2%

1723

1746

 

-1.3%

Sold

489

859

 

-43.1%

489

460

 

6.3%

2017

1712

 

17.8%

143

102

 

40.2%

Pended

708

526

 

34.6%

708

617

 

14.7%

1972

1652

 

19.4%

230

160

 

43.8%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

125

126

 

-0.8%

125

118

 

5.9%

126.09

120.81

 

4.4%

131

127

 

3.1%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Avg CDOM

78

64

 

21.9%

78

83

 

-6%

65

76

 

-14.5%

66

61

 

8.2%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

 

0%    

97

97

 

0%    

97

96

 

1%

97

97

 

0%    

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

>

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Avg. Active Price

342

338

 

1.2%

342

310

 

10.3%

341

311

 

9.6%

345

341

 

1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

262

262

 

0%    

262

246

 

6.5%

264

251

 

5.2%

273

264

 

3.4%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3.7

2.3

 

61.7%

3.7

4.4

 

-15.8%

2.9

3.9

 

-25.7%

12

17.1

 

-29.8%

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published February 2016, based on data available at the end of January 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

 

 

Posted on February 14, 2016 at 4:10 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , ,

Monthly Real Estate Market Report For November 2015

Sales Up, Inventory Down, But No Bubble For Now.

November was another very solid month for the Boise real estate market. While closed sales at 654 were down over 20% from October, consistent with the normal seasonal decline, they were up 10.3% from a year ago. Inventory on the other hand continues to decline.  There were 2154 homes for sale in November down 13.1% from 2479 in October and also down 11.6% from November 2014.  This represents 3.3 months of inventory at the current rate of sales, which, while low, is actually an improvement over recent months where we have been struggling to reach 3 months of inventory.  The average days on market also increased from 49 days in October to 58 in November, but I believe this can be attributed to the regular seasonal slowdown as we approach the Holidays.

 Many are concerned that this continuing combination of increased demand but declining inventory will lead to a price bubble, and ultimately a price correction.  I have been monitoring prices carefully since this trend started early this year and so far I believe prices are rising at a sustainable pace. November’s numbers would seem to confirm that. The average price per square foot ($127) was unchanged from October and up only 1.6% from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price at $269K was barely up  from October and up 5.9% from November 2014. However in October’s report I expressed some mild concern that things were getting a little bit frothy since the average $/sf was +5.9% and the average sales price was +9.5%. November’s results would seem to, at least for the short term, put those fears to rest.

 There is also some speculation that as prices do continue to rise, albeit moderately, more and more buyers, especially first time buyers, will be priced out of the market.  This would be especially likely if interest rates do go up, as the Fed has signaled they will.  Their December meeting is next week so the future should be clearer then. In our market there may be enough demand through in-migration to offset the buyers who can no longer afford to buy. Nationally, however, economists are concerned.  The Wall Street Journal reported in late November that, “younger and middle income buyers had struggled to get into the market” and that, “more children are living with their parents than during the 2007-09 recession…despite substantial improvement in the economy.”* The fear is that the combination of low inventory and lack of affordability will “choke” the market. The article goes on to say that home sales in the West have declined 8.7% year over year while prices have shot up 8%.  Here in Boise, sales are up not down and prices have risen but more moderately than reported for the West as a whole.  This is a good example of the old saying that Real Estate is always local.  National, or in this case regional statistics are often irrelevant in any given market at any given time.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

654

+10.3

100

2154

-13.2

100

$127

+1.6

$269K

+5.9

58

-13.4

3.3

Non Distress

630

+12.7

96.3

2066

-11.1

95.9

$128

+1.6

$272K

+4.6

57

-14.9

3.3

REO

12

-52.0

1.8

20

-63.6

0.9

$101

+2.0

$203K

+38.1

71

+16.4

1.7

Short Sale

9

+28.6

1.4

65

-34.3

3.0

$85

-13.3

$174K

-6.5

116

+2.7

7.2

New Construction

143

+37.5

21.9

879

-3.2

40.8

$147

+12.2

$359K

+18.5

79

-15.1

6.1

                                 

 

So overall as we head into the end of 2015 the Boise market continues to be solid with growth in both volume and prices.  If interest rates do go up it will certainly have some effect on the market, but perhaps less so than in many markets due to our generally strong local economy, low unemployment, job growth (recently cited as the best in the nation), and in-migration from other states.  As the Holidays approach I want to thank all of you for making 2015 another great year for me personally in real estate and wish all of you and your families a fantastic Holiday Season and a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year in 2016.

I look forward to continuing to provide this information every month and welcome your comments, questions and referrals.

  * Kusisto, Laura and Sussman, Anna Louie, “Lofty Prices Denting Home Sales”, WSJ, 11-24-2015, p.2

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Posted on December 19, 2015 at 12:30 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for October 2015

Steady As She Goes—Sales Volume and Prices Continue Strong Gains

The Boise Real Estate market continued to shine in October with healthy increases both in sales and prices.  Concerns I expressed last month about the market overheating have been at least temporarily calmed somewhat because the gains, while impressive, were below what they were in September .  There were 831 closed sales in October up 13.1% from a year ago.  That is a more sustainable trend than the 19.6% increase in sales we saw in September.  Inventory continues tight at 2479 available properties which at the current rate of sale is 3 months supply.  Houses are also moving more quickly than last year as illustrated by the average days on market which has dropped 25.8% to 49 days. Pending sales, a good indicator of future closings, were also strong at 866, 22% ahead of last year. Heading into the slowest part of the year for home sales, this is encouraging.

Prices continue to rise at a robust but I believe realistic rate given tight inventory and increasing demand.  The average price per square foot, $127,  was up 5.9% in October after rising 7.2% in September compared to 2014.  The average sales price was $265,000, a 9.5% increase from a year ago and a jump of $10K from September 2015.  While rising prices and interest rates, if they do in fact rise as predicted (forever) could put a damper on sales and demand by pricing some buyers, particularly first time buyers out of the market, the overall economic picture for the Ada County should keep the market fairly stable.  Low unemployment and continued in-migration from around the country are both helping the market.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

831

+13.1

100

2479

-11.6

100

$127

+5.9

$265K

+9.5

49

-25.8

3.0

Non Distress

810

+17.2

97.5

2381

-9.8

96.0

$128

+5.3

$266K

+7.7

47

-26.6

2.9

REO

10

-63.0

1.2

22

-54.2

0.9

$85

-8.2

$197K

+7.1

78

+20.0

2.2

Short Sale

11

-26.7

1.3

71

-37.2

2.9

$101

+12.4

$232K

+41.5

182

+19.7

6.5

New Construction

156

+15.6

18.8

839

-5.6

33.8

$144

+4.1

$337K

+5.0

56

-37.8

5.4

 

Taking a look at the Boise (Ada County) real estate market by area it is interesting to see that while most areas are showing strong gains in sales, particularly Eagle and Meridian, other areas are not.  Sales in West Boise were actually down 4.6% in the most recent 3 months while in SW Boise they were up barely– +0.3%.  Contrast that to right next door in SE and SW Meridian that was up 48.7% and Eagle up 37.4%.  The average price per square foot showed increases in all areas ranging from 2.3% in  S/SW Boise to 8.5% in Southeast Boise.  The disparity in pricing between areas is also interesting, ranging from $103/sf in SE/SW Meridian and Kuna, to $170/sf in, you guessed it, the North End and NE Boise.

ADA COUNTY SALES VOLUME AND PRICE COMPARISION BY AREA (August-October combined)

Area

# of Homes Sold

% Change

Average $/SF

% Change

North End/NE

230

+10.6

$170

+4.2

Southeast

208

+19.5

$141

+8.5

Bench

183

+16.6

$110

+3.2

S/SW Boise

298

+0.3

$110

+2.3

W. Boise

312

-4.6

$107

+5.7

Garden City/ NW Boise

204

+22.2

$134

+6.8

Eagle

268

+37.4

$140

+2.8

SE/SW Meridian

168

+48.7

$103

+3.8

NE/NW Meridian

539

+21.4

$117

+5.7

Star

99

+15.1

$120

+5.0

Kuna

136

+19.3

$103

+3.8

 

We’ll see what happens with the Fed and interest rates in December but I expect the market to continue to be strong for the next several months barring some unforeseen macroeconomic change.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and as always thank you for keeping those referrals coming!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

http://myreport.trendgraphix.com/SettingLogos/175/Logo.gif

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2479

2572

-3.6%

2479

2805

-11.6%

7661

8924

-14.2%

2335

2383

-2%

Sold

831

910

-8.7%

831

735

13.1%

2643

2281

15.9%

107

172

-37.8%

Pended

866

858

0.9%

866

710

22%

2663

2194

21.4%

200

251

-20.3%

October 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in October 2015 is 2479 units. It is down 3.6% compared to the last month and down 11.6% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in October 2015 is 831 units. It is down 8.7% compared to the last month and up 13.1% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in October 2015 is 866 units. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 22% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

127

125.9

0.9%

127

119.9

5.9%

125.7

119

5.6%

135

127

6.3%

October 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in October 2015 is $127. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 5.9% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

49

52

-5.8%

49

66

-25.8%

49

63

-22.2%

58

45

28.9%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

96

1%

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

October 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend Remains Steady**

Continuous Days on Market in October 2015 is 49. It is down 5.8% compared to the last month and down 25.8% compared to the last year.

October 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling**

Sold/Original List Price % in October 2015 is 97%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

341

340

0.3%

341

316

7.9%

338

312

8.3%

343

347

-1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

265

256

3.5%

265

242

9.5%

260

240

8.3%

299

265

12.8%

October 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in October 2015 is $341. It is up 0.3% compared to the last month and up 7.9% compared to the last year.

October 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in October 2015 is $265. It is up 3.5% compared to the last month and up 9.5% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3

2.8

7.1%

3

3.8

-21%

2.9

3.9

-25.6%

21.8

13.9

57%

October 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in October 2015 is 3. It is up 7.1% compared to the last month and down 21% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published November 2015, based on data available at the end of October 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

 

Posted on November 9, 2015 at 5:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2015

Market Remains Strong, Prices Rising

In September the Boise real estate market continued to show strong growth. There were 884 closed sales an increase of 19.4% from 2014.  Of those 143 were new construction (+9.2%). Inventory remains below 3 months and we are finally starting to see the predicted consequence of a prolonged period of tight inventory—rapidly rising prices.  For several months despite having a shortage of homes for sale prices rose only moderately, in the 3-6% range.  In September the average price per square foot ($126) was up 7.2% while the average sale price ($255K) was up 10.9%.  The median sales price, at $225K, saw an increase of 15.4%.  These are compared to what were already pretty healthy number in the second half of 2014. While it definitely too early to declare that a bubble is forming, this change in the curve of prices does bear watching.  Thankfully as sales drop off during the fall and winter months typically the months of inventory available increases, even though the actual number of homes available may actually decrease.  This increase in relative inventory may bring some relief to sales prices at least for the short term.

The other likely factor that could put a lid on rising home prices is a change in interest rates.  The Fed continues to do a dance around their goal of slowly raising rates but so far has been unable to pull the trigger. For now rates remain around 4%. A significant rise could nudge some buyers out of the market.  On the flip side, in migration by buyers flush with cash from selling homes in higher priced west coast markets and elsewhere could continue to drive market growth here. The fact that pending sales were up 23.1% in September would lead me to believe that sales will stay relatively strong in the coming months.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

884

+19.6

100

2572

-14.3

100

$126

+7.2

$255K

+10.9

52

-14.8

2.9

Non Distress

852

+22.4

96.4

2469

-12.6

96.0

$127

+6.7

$258K

+10.3

49

-16.9

2.9

REO

18

-41.9

2.0

24

-61.9

0.9

$95

+10.7

$152K

-4.4

63

-6.0

1.3

Short Sale

14

+16.7

1.6

72

-33.3

2.8

$86

-13.1

$201K

+4.7

219

+61.0

5.1

New Construction

143

+9.2

16.2

805

-7.2

31.3

$142

+7.9

$334K

+17.2

71

-21.1

5.6

 

I’m keeping it short and sweet this month.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments an keep those referrals coming!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2572

2610

-1.5%

2572

3002

-14.3%

7820

9161

-14.6%

2383

2495

-4.5%

Sold

884

900

-1.8%

884

739

19.6%

2868

2448

17.2%

172

183

-6%

Pended

890

949

-6.2%

890

723

23.1%

2808

2277

23.3%

251

220

14.1%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

125.5

124.2

1%

125.5

117.1

7.2%

125.8

119.6

5.2%

127

126

0.8%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

52

47

10.6%

52

61

-14.8%

49

58

-15.5%

45

50

-10%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

 

Avg Prices & Median Price (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Median

225

225

0%    

225

195

15.4%

226

206

9.7%

223

229

-2.6%

Avg. Active Price

340

334

1.8%

340

311

9.3%

336

310

8.4%

347

337

3%

Avg. Sold Price

255

258

-1.2%

255

230

10.9%

260

241

7.9%

265

255

3.9%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.9

2.9

0%    

2.9

4.1

-29.5%

2.7

3.7

-26.7%

13.9

13.6

2.2%

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published October 2015, based on data available at the end of September 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on October 10, 2015 at 11:29 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for August 2015

Home Sales, Prices Continue to Coast Along in August

 

August was another very solid for the Boise real estate market. Sales and prices were both up solidly and while low inventory remains a concern it does not seem to be causing too much distress for buyers or pushing prices to unrealistic levels.  On the sales side in August it does feel like the market took its foot off the gas slightly compared to the last several months.  While the 887 closed sales was a solid 9.9% increase from a year ago, we have been experiencing year over year sales increases more in the +20% range for several months. It’s hard to pinpoint the cause. It could be the  beginning of the normal seasonal slowdown, or we may finally be starting reach the capacity of what a market this size can support volume-wise, or maybe it is the pre-cursor of a broader market slow down. Most would agree that if interest rates do go up significantly there will be a negative effect on sales but rates really haven’t yet gone above 4% on a consistent basis and the much threatened fed rate increase this fall seems in jeopardy due to the lack of confidence in the strength of the economy.

 

Prices, meanwhile, continue to increase but at very manageable levels.  The average sales price ($259K) was up 4.4% vs 2014 while the average price per square foot ($124) rose 3.6%. These percentages are only slightly higher than the current rate of inflation and therefore for the time being allay any real concerns that the market is overheating.  These are certainly sustainable increases given the overall strength of the local economy. As discussed above, a significant rate increase could impact prices as well as volume by reducing buyer’s buying power as well as confidence. This could especially impact new construction which is typically at a higher price point.  Already this year we have seen new construction drop from around 20% of the total closed sales to just 13.5% in August.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

887

+9.9

100

2610

-16.3

100

$124

+3.6

$259K

+4.4

47

-25.4

2.9

Non Distress

860

+13.2

97.0

2509

-14.4

96.1

$125

+3.4

$261K

+3.6

46

-23.3

2.9

REO

19

-29.6

2.1

23

-59.6

0.9

$94

-3.1

$169K

+8.3

52

-14.8

1.2

Short Sale

8

-55.6

0.9

73

-38.7

2.8

$102

-2.4

$242K

+2.1

139

-24.9

9.1

New Construction

120

-9.1

13.5

816

-4.3

31.3

$141

+3.5

$348K

+12.3

85

-8.6

6.8

 

As we roll into fall it’s hard to know exactly what to expect.  If the forces that typically affect the market remain in relative status quo then I think we can expect the healthy market to continue in Boise.  If there is a dramatic shift in interest rates, consumer confidence, an/or the local job market we can expect the market to react accordingly.

 

Thank you all for your comments, questions and referrals and for making 2015 another successful year for my business.

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

For Sale

2610

2638

-1.1%

2610

3117

-16.3%

2628

3036

-13.4%

2423

2546

-4.8%

Sold

887

1084

-18.2%

887

807

9.9%

1027

860

19.4%

208

199

4.5%

Pended

979

977

0.2%

979

761

28.6%

981

809

21.3%

301

288

4.5%

August 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in August 2015 is 2610 units. It is down 1.1% compared to the last month and down 16.3% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in August 2015 is 887 units. It is down 18.2% compared to the last month and up 9.9% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in August 2015 is 979 units. It is up 0.2% compared to the last month and up 28.6% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

124.3

127.3

-2.4%

124.3

120

3.6%

126.3

120.4

4.9%

126

125

0.8%

August 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in August 2015 is $124. It is down 2.4% compared to the last month and up 3.6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

47

48

-2.1%

47

63

-25.4%

47

55

-14.5%

47

49

-4.1%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

95

98

-3.1%

August 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in August 2015 is 47. It is down 2.1% compared to the last month and down 25.4% compared to the last year.

August 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling**

Sold/Original List Price % in August 2015 is 97%. It is the same as compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

334

335

-0.3%

334

308

8.4%

334

311

7.4%

338

336

0.6%

Avg. Sold Price

259

267

-3%

259

248

4.4%

264

246

7.3%

255

253

0.8%

August 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in August 2015 is $334. It is down 0.3% compared to the last month and up 8.4% compared to the last year.

August 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in August 2015 is $259. It is down 3% compared to the last month and up 4.4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.9

2.4

20.5%

2.9

3.9

-25.9%

2.6

3.5

-25.5%

11.6

12.8

-9.4%

August 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in August 2015 is 2.9. It is up 20.5% compared to the last month and down 25.9% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published September 2015, based on data available at the end of August 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on September 15, 2015 at 8:24 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2015

BOISE REAL ESTATE MARKET STAYS HEALTHY BUT RATE RISE LOOMS

 

An article last week in the Idaho Statesman painted a pretty gloomy picture of the Boise Real Estate Market and predicted a drop in the market starting… now.  I guess that sells papers, but from my vantage point the reality is quite a bit different and the outlook considerably more positive. First of all, right now the market here is very healthy.  Sales are up and while inventory is tight, prices are rising consistently but not recklessly. For the umpteenth time in the last 4 years the consensus is that interest rates are going to rise but no one really knows how soon or how much.  That simmering volcano known as the Federal Reserve has recently shown signs, albeit erratic, of rumbling to life and causing rates to rise and that definitely will affect the market when it happens.  In the long term, depending on how far rates go, some buyers will get priced out of the market by higher payments.  Sales will drop as a result which will eventually cause downward pressure on prices. However in the short term rising rates, or a least the credible threat of such, may actually stimulate the market as Buyers scramble to get in before their purchasing power begins to evaporate.  Sellers on the other hand, convinced the market is peaking and headed for collapse will rush to list now. Either way, for the short term at least, the market looks to remain robust.  And in the long term the loss of some portion of the buyer pool to higher rates may be more than offset in our market by the continued strong in-migration of Buyers, many flush with cash from selling property in more expensive places like California and Washington.

 

Here’s a rundown of the July numbers. Closed sales at 1030 were up 14.2% from a year ago.  While this is smaller than the 25% gain we saw in June, Pending sales were up 28.4% in July indicating we should have strong closings in August and September.  Inventory continues to be low with only 2.6 months available at the current rate of sale. The average days on market also is low at 49 days (-5.8%), indicating homes are selling quickly.

 

Given this scenario of strong demand and very low inventory prices should surging, raising fears of a bubble.  So far in 2015 that has not been the case.  In July the average price per square foot was $126, a 4% increase from a year ago.  The average sales price meanwhile was up 9.5% to $266,000.  While that 9.5% rise is approaching what I would consider un-sustainable appreciation, year to date the average sales price has risen a much more reasonable 5.6%.  One other interesting wrinkle in the price data is in new construction.  The average sales price ($316K) actually fell 3.7% while the average price per square foot rose 4.3% to $142.  This would suggest that builders are building smaller homes in response to tepid sales. New construction has lost 3 or 4 percentage points of market share in the last year and in July had a share of 16.8% of all houses sold while new home inventory was almost 30% of the homes available. Distressed sales meanwhile represented only 2.5% of all sales, the lowest since before the last market peak in 2006. Only 3.8% of the available homes are considered distressed, also a post 2006 low.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1030

+14.2

100

2638

-13.3

100

$126

+4.0

$266K

+9.5

49

-5.8

2.6

Non Distress

1005

+18.1

97.6

2534

-11.3

96.1

$127

+3.4

$268K

+7.6

47

-7.8

2.5

REO

12

-64.7

1.2

20

-69.2

0.8

$84

-6.1

$130K

-6.5

70

+20.7

1.7

Short Sale

13

-7.1

1.3

78

-30.4

3.0

$91

-6.7

$182K

+9.6

160

+8.1

6.0

New Construction

173

+3.6

16.8

784

-2.4

29.7

$142

+4.3

$316K

-3.7

93

+27.4

4.5

 

So while interest rates and global economic factors always bear watching I continue to see a strong market here in Boise at least in the short.  It is a sellers market for sure but buyers should also not hesitate because their buying power may be reduced if rates do go up soon.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments and referrals.

 

 

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

Current Boise Real Estate Market Data

 

View my profile on LinkedIn

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Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

For Sale

2638

2636

0.1%

2638

3042

-13.3%

2587

2936

-11.9%

2474

2501

-1.1%

Sold

1030

1112

-7.4%

1030

902

14.2%

1036

875

18.4%

82

156

-47.4%

Pended

1021

999

2.2%

1021

793

28.8%

1024

842

21.6%

185

161

14.9%

July 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in July 2015 is 2638 units. It is up 0.1% compared to the last month and down 13.3% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in July 2015 is 1030 units. It is down 7.4% compared to the last month and up 14.2% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in July 2015 is 1021 units. It is up 2.2% compared to the last month and up 28.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

126.1

127

-0.7%

126.1

121.3

4%

125.4

120.5

4.1%

130

125

4%

July 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in July 2015 is $126. It is down 0.7% compared to the last month and up 4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

49

47

4.3%

49

52

-5.8%

50

53

-5.7%

36

48

-25%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

July 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend Remains Steady**

Continuous Days on Market in July 2015 is 49. It is up 4.3% compared to the last month and down 5.8% compared to the last year.

July 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in July 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

335

332

0.9%

335

310

8.1%

332

314

5.7%

338

334

1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

266

265

0.4%

266

243

9.5%

262

244

7.4%

265

267

-0.7%

July 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in July 2015 is $335. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 8.1% compared to the last year.

July 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in July 2015 is $266. It is up 0.4% compared to the last month and up 9.5% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.6

2.4

8.4%

2.6

3.4

-23.7%

2.5

3.4

-26.8%

30.2

16

88.6%

July 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in July 2015 is 2.6. It is up 8.4% compared to the last month and down 23.7% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published August 2015, based on data available at the end of July 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 1:31 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2015

Unit Sales Continue to Surge,  Prices Up Too.

In June the Boise real estate market saw a 25.4% surge in closed sales over 2014 and a 13% jump from May.  There were 1092 closed sales in Ada County, the busiest month of 2015 so far by a long shot. This caps a several month long run of double digit increases in year over year sales.  There is a sign that the trend might moderate slightly in the next couple months because pending sales, a good indicator of future closings, peaked in April and have dropped slightly in each of the last 2 months.  This would suggest fewer closings in July and August.

Meanwhile inventories continue to be tight and there is some concern that as a result prices will spike.  So far that is not really happening, although prices are up moderately.  There were 2636 homes listed as active in Ada County which is off 10.6% from a year ago.  This translates into 2.4 months of inventory at the current rate of sales.  Anything below three months of inventory is considered tight.  Furthermore the average days on market has dropped to 48 (-7.7% vs 2014).  As recently as January the average days on market was as high as 83 meaning homes are on average selling 42% faster than they were in January.  Some but not all of that is due to normal seasonal fluctuation in the market.

Prices are rising, but at least for now at a manageable and sustainable (I hope) pace.  The average price per square foot was $127 in June, up 6% from a year ago.  The average sales price was $267,000 an 8.1% increase over 2014.  If we can stay in the 5-8% range of annual appreciation I think the market will stay healthy.  Anything over 10% and I will be concerned that we may see a new bubble forming.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1092

+25.4

100

2636

-10.6

100

$127

+6.0

$267K

+8.1

48

-7.7

2.4

Non Distress

1056

+29.7

96.7

2521

-8.3

95.6

$128

+5.4

$270K

+7.6

47

-6.0

2.4

REO

20

-47.4

1.8

30

-55.9

1.1

$92

+0.1

$169K

+7.0

52

-22.4

1.5

Short Sale

14

-17.6

1.3

78

-37.1

3.0

$103

+3.7

$187K

-15.8

142

+34.0

5.6

New Construction

160

+1.9

14.7

809

+2.4

30.7

$144

+7.4

$340K

+4.3

97

+5.4

5.1

 

One other area of concern that I have noted in recent months is new construction.  As recently as a year ago new construction had blossomed to over 20% of all sales are being left for dead during the recession.  That number has now slipped to only 14.7% of total volume and while the market as a whole saw a 25.4% increase in unit sales, sales of new homes were only up 1.9%.  The biggest reason is price.  There is a roughly $85,000 (34%) difference in the average sales price of a new home versus resale and that gap means some buyers are not able to afford a brand new home. One disclaimer in discussing new construction using the data available to me is that it only includes properties listed in the MLS not private sales and build jobs where the property is never listed. The only way to get true data would be to analyze the building permits issued by each municipality and the county, a long time consuming process.

For the short term, looking at the market as a whole, expect more of the same.  Interest rates have inched up to around 4% and the national economic recovery is tepid but here in Boise there seems to be a continuing demand for housing due to a relatively strong job market and the influx of out of staters both working age and retirees.  As always your comments, questions, and referrals are welcome.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

 

 

 


Prepared for you by: CamJohnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

umber of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2636

2486

6%

2636

2948

-10.6%

2481

2769

-10.4%

2466

2376

3.8%

Sold

1092

963

13.4%

1092

871

25.4%

981

816

20.2%

184

247

-25.5%

Pended

1033

1060

-2.5%

1033

873

18.3%

1070

857

24.9%

258

302

-14.6%

June 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in June 2015 is 2636 units. It is up 6% compared to the last month and down 10.6% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in June 2015 is 1092 units. It is up 13.4% compared to the last month and up 25.4% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in June 2015 is 1033 units. It is down 2.5% compared to the last month and up 18.3% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

127.1

123

3.3%

127.1

119.9

6%

124.5

119.1

4.5%

126

124

1.6%

June 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in June 2015 is $127. It is up 3.3% compared to the last month and up 6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

48

55

-12.7%

48

52

-7.7%

53

57

-7%

44

49

-10.2%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

June 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in June 2015 is 48. It is down 12.7% compared to the last month and down 7.7% compared to the last year.

June 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in June 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

332

330

0.6%

332

316

5.1%

332

317

4.7%

337

336

0.3%

Avg. Sold Price

267

255

4.7%

267

247

8.1%

256

241

6.2%

273

258

5.8%

June 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in June 2015 is $332. It is up 0.6% compared to the last month and up 5.1% compared to the last year.

June 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in June 2015 is $267. It is up 4.7% compared to the last month and up 8.1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.4

2.6

-7.7%

2.4

3.4

-29.5%

2.5

3.4

-26.5%

13.4

9.6

39.5%

June 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in June 2015 is 2.4. It is down 7.7% compared to the last month and down 29.5% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published July 2015, based on data available at the end of June 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on July 15, 2015 at 12:49 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,