Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2016

January is the slowest month of the year for Boise Real Estate, but this one was better than most.

After an exceptional December to end 2015, the Boise real estate market returned to earth with more typical numbers for January, albeit good ones.  Both sales and prices rose moderately year over year and inventory remains down although based on the slower rate of sales, the months of available inventory actually shot up last month.

There were 489 closed sales in January, up 6.3% from 2015, but down 40% from December’s impressive 814 closed sales.  Pending sales also looked good in January, up 14.7%, an encouraging indicator for sales in coming months.  Inventory continues to fall however.  There were 1807 homes available in Ada County, a drop of 11.5% from January 2015.  However the average days on market actually jumped by 15 days from December to 78,  but this was still 6% fewer days than last year.  Fewer homes sell in the winter and those that do sell take longer to do so.  The rate of sales directly affects the months of available inventory so while robust sales in December meant there was only 2.4 months of inventory available, January’s slower sales jumped us to 3.7 months of inventory despite there actually being about 150 fewer homes available to sell.

Despite sales being up in double digits most of last year and inventories being almost painfully low, the classic recipe for a price bubble, somehow prices have managed to increase only moderately, which is good news! While it is undoubtedly a seller’s market prices have not gone haywire.  The average price per square foot, at $125, was up a healthy 5.9% from a year ago, while the average sale price at $262K was up 6.5%.  And with interest rates still very low there seems to be plenty of demand despite having to pay higher prices.  This scenario will likely continue for at least 6 months as the Fed seems once again timid about tampering with rates given recent world market turmoil and shaky numbers for the US economy.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

489

+6.3

100

1807

-11.5

100

$125

+5.9

$262K

+6.5

78

-6.0

3.7

Non Distress

466

+11.8

95.3

1739

-8.6

96.2

$126

+4.1

$266K

+4.3

79

-1.2

3.7

REO

16

-33.3

3.3

19

-60.4

1.1

$99

+4.2

$167K

-4.0

57

-12.3

1.2

Short Sale

5

-73.7

1.0

48

-44.8

2.7

$101

+21.7

$265K

+69.9

73

-62.0

9.6

New Construction

104

-7.1

21.3

892

+5.3

49.4

$139

+1.5

$326K

+2.2

130

+38.3

8.6

 

I hope everyone’s new year is off to a great start.  I have managed to find time to enjoy the great skiing while still staying busy in real estate.  Please feel free to contact me with you questions and comments.  And please keep those referrals coming!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Facts and Trends

TM

Published February 2016*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

>

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

For Sale

1807

1949

 

-7.3%

1807

2041

 

-11.5%

5910

6652

 

-11.2%

1723

1746

 

-1.3%

Sold

489

859

 

-43.1%

489

460

 

6.3%

2017

1712

 

17.8%

143

102

 

40.2%

Pended

708

526

 

34.6%

708

617

 

14.7%

1972

1652

 

19.4%

230

160

 

43.8%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

125

126

 

-0.8%

125

118

 

5.9%

126.09

120.81

 

4.4%

131

127

 

3.1%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Avg CDOM

78

64

 

21.9%

78

83

 

-6%

65

76

 

-14.5%

66

61

 

8.2%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

 

0%    

97

97

 

0%    

97

96

 

1%

97

97

 

0%    

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

>

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Avg. Active Price

342

338

 

1.2%

342

310

 

10.3%

341

311

 

9.6%

345

341

 

1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

262

262

 

0%    

262

246

 

6.5%

264

251

 

5.2%

273

264

 

3.4%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jan. 16

Dec. 15

% Change

Jan. 16

Jan. 15

% Change

Nov. 15 to Jan. 16

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

% Change

2/1/2016 – 2/8/2016

1/1/2016 – 1/8/2016

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3.7

2.3

 

61.7%

3.7

4.4

 

-15.8%

2.9

3.9

 

-25.7%

12

17.1

 

-29.8%

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published February 2016, based on data available at the end of January 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

 

 

Posted on February 14, 2016 at 4:10 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2015

2015 Finishes Strong And Was A Great Year For Boise Real Estate

Now that 2015 has come to a close we can take a look at how Boise Real Estate  did for the year as a whole.  The answer in one word: Great! December finished strong capping off one the better years in recent memory. Closed sales surged in a normally quiet time of year.  There were 814 closings in December, up 23.5%.  For the year as a whole there were 9963 closings an increase of 18.3% over 2014.  Inventories continue to be tight and were even tighter overall in 2015. There were 2154 homes available in December 2015 down 13.2% from December 2014.  For the year as a whole inventory was down 11.1%.  The average months of inventory ended the year at a very tight 2.4 months, while the average months of inventory for the year was 2.8 months, 26.6% below 2014.

It would be easy to assume with those kinds of number that prices would be spiraling out of control creating a new bubble like we saw in 2006-7.  So far, and we have been in a similar trend for a solid year now, this has not been the case.  Prices are up to be sure, but aren’t rising at what I would consider an unsustainable pace.  The average price per square foot ($127) was up a modest 1.6 % compared to December 2014 and for the year averaged $125/sf,  a 4.8% increase.  I would definitely consider those to be encouraging numbers especially given how tight inventory is.  Similarly, the average sales price was $269,000 (+5.9%) while for the year the average sales price was $259,000 up 7.5% from 2014.  Still very reasonable numbers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

814

+23.5

100

1949

-8.5

100

$126

+5.9

$264K

+4.3

63

-19.2

2.4

Non Distress

791

+30.5

97.2

1874

-6.1

96.2

$126

+4.1

$267K

+2.3

62

-17.3

2.4

REO

7

-81.6

0.9

17

-58.5

0.9

$82

`-8.9

$192K

+22.3

46

-40.3

2.4

Short Sale

15

0.0

1.8

57

-38.0

2.9

$104

+6.1

$186K

+2.8

126

-33.3

3.8

New Construction

195

+41.3

24.0

921

+6.1

47.3

$143

+0.7

$345K

+3.0

89

-16.0

4.7

New construction, which earlier in the year had been somewhat of a drag on the market ended the year with a late surge.  195 new homes were sold in December, a 41.3% increase from December 2014.  24% or almost one in four homes sold was new construction last month.  This compares to only 17.5% for the year as a whole so this is encouraging news for builders.  Sales for the year (1752) were up a healthy 13.4%  while prices rose moderately.  The average price per square foot at $141, was up 4.7% while the average sales price ($329,000) rose 5.4%. Affordability of a new home does continue to be an issue for many buyers or I think these numbers would be even stronger.

The scope of this report is generally limited to Ada County, but I thought some of you might share my curiosity about whether the trends in Boise are similar in Canyon County (Nampa/Caldwell etc) for the year as a whole.  Turns out they are pretty similar on a smaller base.  There were 3946 sales in Canyon County in 2015 an increase of 14.6% while the number of homes for sale slipped 18.3% to 13,092. Average price per square foot rose 7.7% to $92 while the average sales price climbed to $164,000, +7.2%.

The outlook for the first half of 2016 would indicate more of the same as the factors affecting our market look to remain relatively static.  Interest rates, despite a move by the Fed in December, remain very low, unemployment is also low and we continue to see in-migration by those attracted to the quality of life and relative affordability of Boise.  It is still a Seller’s market but Buyer’s should not be afraid to make a move as interest rates may go up, and at least for the short term price look to continue rising.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  And much appreciation and many thanks for your continued support in the form of referrals.  They are the foundation of my business.

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

 


Prepared for you by:

 

Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

For Sale

1949

2154

-9.5%

1949

2130

-8.5%

6582

7416

-11.2%

1769

1980

-10.7%

Sold

814

663

22.8%

814

659

23.5%

2321

1987

16.8%

57

185

-69.2%

Pended

544

748

-27.3%

544

473

15%

2123

1745

21.7%

148

140

5.7%

December 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in December 2015 is 1949 units. It is down 9.5% compared to the last month and down 8.5% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in December 2015 is 814 units. It is up 22.8% compared to the last month and up 23.5% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in December 2015 is 544 units. It is down 27.3% compared to the last month and up 15% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

126

127

-0.8%

126

119

5.9%

126.65

121.16

4.5%

131

125

4.8%

December 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in December 2015 is $126. It is down 0.8% compared to the last month and up 5.9% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

63

58

8.6%

63

78

-19.2%

56

70

-20%

57

67

-14.9%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

98

-1%

97

96

1%

97

96

1%

97

98

-1%

December 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Rising**

Continuous Days on Market in December 2015 is 63. It is up 8.6% compared to the last month and down 19.2% compared to the last year.

December 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady**

Sold/Original List Price % in December 2015 is 97%. It is down 1% compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

338

344

-1.7%

338

313

8%

341

313

8.9%

340

349

-2.6%

Avg. Sold Price

264

268

-1.5%

264

253

4.3%

266

250

6.4%

261

268

-2.6%

December 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in December 2015 is $338. It is down 1.7% compared to the last month and up 8% compared to the last year.

December 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in December 2015 is $264. It is down 1.5% compared to the last month and up 4.3% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.4

3.2

-24.6%

2.4

3.2

-24.8%

2.8

3.7

-24.1%

31

10.7

189.7%

December 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in December 2015 is 2.4. It is down 24.6% compared to the last month and down 24.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published January 2016, based on data available at the end of December 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 2:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Monthly Real Estate Market Report For November 2015

Sales Up, Inventory Down, But No Bubble For Now.

November was another very solid month for the Boise real estate market. While closed sales at 654 were down over 20% from October, consistent with the normal seasonal decline, they were up 10.3% from a year ago. Inventory on the other hand continues to decline.  There were 2154 homes for sale in November down 13.1% from 2479 in October and also down 11.6% from November 2014.  This represents 3.3 months of inventory at the current rate of sales, which, while low, is actually an improvement over recent months where we have been struggling to reach 3 months of inventory.  The average days on market also increased from 49 days in October to 58 in November, but I believe this can be attributed to the regular seasonal slowdown as we approach the Holidays.

 Many are concerned that this continuing combination of increased demand but declining inventory will lead to a price bubble, and ultimately a price correction.  I have been monitoring prices carefully since this trend started early this year and so far I believe prices are rising at a sustainable pace. November’s numbers would seem to confirm that. The average price per square foot ($127) was unchanged from October and up only 1.6% from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price at $269K was barely up  from October and up 5.9% from November 2014. However in October’s report I expressed some mild concern that things were getting a little bit frothy since the average $/sf was +5.9% and the average sales price was +9.5%. November’s results would seem to, at least for the short term, put those fears to rest.

 There is also some speculation that as prices do continue to rise, albeit moderately, more and more buyers, especially first time buyers, will be priced out of the market.  This would be especially likely if interest rates do go up, as the Fed has signaled they will.  Their December meeting is next week so the future should be clearer then. In our market there may be enough demand through in-migration to offset the buyers who can no longer afford to buy. Nationally, however, economists are concerned.  The Wall Street Journal reported in late November that, “younger and middle income buyers had struggled to get into the market” and that, “more children are living with their parents than during the 2007-09 recession…despite substantial improvement in the economy.”* The fear is that the combination of low inventory and lack of affordability will “choke” the market. The article goes on to say that home sales in the West have declined 8.7% year over year while prices have shot up 8%.  Here in Boise, sales are up not down and prices have risen but more moderately than reported for the West as a whole.  This is a good example of the old saying that Real Estate is always local.  National, or in this case regional statistics are often irrelevant in any given market at any given time.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

654

+10.3

100

2154

-13.2

100

$127

+1.6

$269K

+5.9

58

-13.4

3.3

Non Distress

630

+12.7

96.3

2066

-11.1

95.9

$128

+1.6

$272K

+4.6

57

-14.9

3.3

REO

12

-52.0

1.8

20

-63.6

0.9

$101

+2.0

$203K

+38.1

71

+16.4

1.7

Short Sale

9

+28.6

1.4

65

-34.3

3.0

$85

-13.3

$174K

-6.5

116

+2.7

7.2

New Construction

143

+37.5

21.9

879

-3.2

40.8

$147

+12.2

$359K

+18.5

79

-15.1

6.1

                                 

 

So overall as we head into the end of 2015 the Boise market continues to be solid with growth in both volume and prices.  If interest rates do go up it will certainly have some effect on the market, but perhaps less so than in many markets due to our generally strong local economy, low unemployment, job growth (recently cited as the best in the nation), and in-migration from other states.  As the Holidays approach I want to thank all of you for making 2015 another great year for me personally in real estate and wish all of you and your families a fantastic Holiday Season and a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year in 2016.

I look forward to continuing to provide this information every month and welcome your comments, questions and referrals.

  * Kusisto, Laura and Sussman, Anna Louie, “Lofty Prices Denting Home Sales”, WSJ, 11-24-2015, p.2

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Posted on December 19, 2015 at 12:30 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for October 2015

Steady As She Goes—Sales Volume and Prices Continue Strong Gains

The Boise Real Estate market continued to shine in October with healthy increases both in sales and prices.  Concerns I expressed last month about the market overheating have been at least temporarily calmed somewhat because the gains, while impressive, were below what they were in September .  There were 831 closed sales in October up 13.1% from a year ago.  That is a more sustainable trend than the 19.6% increase in sales we saw in September.  Inventory continues tight at 2479 available properties which at the current rate of sale is 3 months supply.  Houses are also moving more quickly than last year as illustrated by the average days on market which has dropped 25.8% to 49 days. Pending sales, a good indicator of future closings, were also strong at 866, 22% ahead of last year. Heading into the slowest part of the year for home sales, this is encouraging.

Prices continue to rise at a robust but I believe realistic rate given tight inventory and increasing demand.  The average price per square foot, $127,  was up 5.9% in October after rising 7.2% in September compared to 2014.  The average sales price was $265,000, a 9.5% increase from a year ago and a jump of $10K from September 2015.  While rising prices and interest rates, if they do in fact rise as predicted (forever) could put a damper on sales and demand by pricing some buyers, particularly first time buyers out of the market, the overall economic picture for the Ada County should keep the market fairly stable.  Low unemployment and continued in-migration from around the country are both helping the market.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

831

+13.1

100

2479

-11.6

100

$127

+5.9

$265K

+9.5

49

-25.8

3.0

Non Distress

810

+17.2

97.5

2381

-9.8

96.0

$128

+5.3

$266K

+7.7

47

-26.6

2.9

REO

10

-63.0

1.2

22

-54.2

0.9

$85

-8.2

$197K

+7.1

78

+20.0

2.2

Short Sale

11

-26.7

1.3

71

-37.2

2.9

$101

+12.4

$232K

+41.5

182

+19.7

6.5

New Construction

156

+15.6

18.8

839

-5.6

33.8

$144

+4.1

$337K

+5.0

56

-37.8

5.4

 

Taking a look at the Boise (Ada County) real estate market by area it is interesting to see that while most areas are showing strong gains in sales, particularly Eagle and Meridian, other areas are not.  Sales in West Boise were actually down 4.6% in the most recent 3 months while in SW Boise they were up barely– +0.3%.  Contrast that to right next door in SE and SW Meridian that was up 48.7% and Eagle up 37.4%.  The average price per square foot showed increases in all areas ranging from 2.3% in  S/SW Boise to 8.5% in Southeast Boise.  The disparity in pricing between areas is also interesting, ranging from $103/sf in SE/SW Meridian and Kuna, to $170/sf in, you guessed it, the North End and NE Boise.

ADA COUNTY SALES VOLUME AND PRICE COMPARISION BY AREA (August-October combined)

Area

# of Homes Sold

% Change

Average $/SF

% Change

North End/NE

230

+10.6

$170

+4.2

Southeast

208

+19.5

$141

+8.5

Bench

183

+16.6

$110

+3.2

S/SW Boise

298

+0.3

$110

+2.3

W. Boise

312

-4.6

$107

+5.7

Garden City/ NW Boise

204

+22.2

$134

+6.8

Eagle

268

+37.4

$140

+2.8

SE/SW Meridian

168

+48.7

$103

+3.8

NE/NW Meridian

539

+21.4

$117

+5.7

Star

99

+15.1

$120

+5.0

Kuna

136

+19.3

$103

+3.8

 

We’ll see what happens with the Fed and interest rates in December but I expect the market to continue to be strong for the next several months barring some unforeseen macroeconomic change.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and as always thank you for keeping those referrals coming!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

http://myreport.trendgraphix.com/SettingLogos/175/Logo.gif

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2479

2572

-3.6%

2479

2805

-11.6%

7661

8924

-14.2%

2335

2383

-2%

Sold

831

910

-8.7%

831

735

13.1%

2643

2281

15.9%

107

172

-37.8%

Pended

866

858

0.9%

866

710

22%

2663

2194

21.4%

200

251

-20.3%

October 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in October 2015 is 2479 units. It is down 3.6% compared to the last month and down 11.6% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in October 2015 is 831 units. It is down 8.7% compared to the last month and up 13.1% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in October 2015 is 866 units. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 22% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

127

125.9

0.9%

127

119.9

5.9%

125.7

119

5.6%

135

127

6.3%

October 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in October 2015 is $127. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 5.9% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

49

52

-5.8%

49

66

-25.8%

49

63

-22.2%

58

45

28.9%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

96

1%

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

October 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend Remains Steady**

Continuous Days on Market in October 2015 is 49. It is down 5.8% compared to the last month and down 25.8% compared to the last year.

October 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling**

Sold/Original List Price % in October 2015 is 97%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

341

340

0.3%

341

316

7.9%

338

312

8.3%

343

347

-1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

265

256

3.5%

265

242

9.5%

260

240

8.3%

299

265

12.8%

October 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in October 2015 is $341. It is up 0.3% compared to the last month and up 7.9% compared to the last year.

October 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in October 2015 is $265. It is up 3.5% compared to the last month and up 9.5% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Aug. 2014 – Oct. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Oct. 15

Sep. 15

% Change

Oct. 15

Oct. 14

% Change

Aug. 15 to Oct. 15

Aug. 14 to Oct. 14

% Change

11/1/2015 – 11/8/2015

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3

2.8

7.1%

3

3.8

-21%

2.9

3.9

-25.6%

21.8

13.9

57%

October 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in October 2015 is 3. It is up 7.1% compared to the last month and down 21% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published November 2015, based on data available at the end of October 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

 

Posted on November 9, 2015 at 5:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2015

Market Remains Strong, Prices Rising

In September the Boise real estate market continued to show strong growth. There were 884 closed sales an increase of 19.4% from 2014.  Of those 143 were new construction (+9.2%). Inventory remains below 3 months and we are finally starting to see the predicted consequence of a prolonged period of tight inventory—rapidly rising prices.  For several months despite having a shortage of homes for sale prices rose only moderately, in the 3-6% range.  In September the average price per square foot ($126) was up 7.2% while the average sale price ($255K) was up 10.9%.  The median sales price, at $225K, saw an increase of 15.4%.  These are compared to what were already pretty healthy number in the second half of 2014. While it definitely too early to declare that a bubble is forming, this change in the curve of prices does bear watching.  Thankfully as sales drop off during the fall and winter months typically the months of inventory available increases, even though the actual number of homes available may actually decrease.  This increase in relative inventory may bring some relief to sales prices at least for the short term.

The other likely factor that could put a lid on rising home prices is a change in interest rates.  The Fed continues to do a dance around their goal of slowly raising rates but so far has been unable to pull the trigger. For now rates remain around 4%. A significant rise could nudge some buyers out of the market.  On the flip side, in migration by buyers flush with cash from selling homes in higher priced west coast markets and elsewhere could continue to drive market growth here. The fact that pending sales were up 23.1% in September would lead me to believe that sales will stay relatively strong in the coming months.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

884

+19.6

100

2572

-14.3

100

$126

+7.2

$255K

+10.9

52

-14.8

2.9

Non Distress

852

+22.4

96.4

2469

-12.6

96.0

$127

+6.7

$258K

+10.3

49

-16.9

2.9

REO

18

-41.9

2.0

24

-61.9

0.9

$95

+10.7

$152K

-4.4

63

-6.0

1.3

Short Sale

14

+16.7

1.6

72

-33.3

2.8

$86

-13.1

$201K

+4.7

219

+61.0

5.1

New Construction

143

+9.2

16.2

805

-7.2

31.3

$142

+7.9

$334K

+17.2

71

-21.1

5.6

 

I’m keeping it short and sweet this month.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments an keep those referrals coming!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2572

2610

-1.5%

2572

3002

-14.3%

7820

9161

-14.6%

2383

2495

-4.5%

Sold

884

900

-1.8%

884

739

19.6%

2868

2448

17.2%

172

183

-6%

Pended

890

949

-6.2%

890

723

23.1%

2808

2277

23.3%

251

220

14.1%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

125.5

124.2

1%

125.5

117.1

7.2%

125.8

119.6

5.2%

127

126

0.8%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

52

47

10.6%

52

61

-14.8%

49

58

-15.5%

45

50

-10%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

 

Avg Prices & Median Price (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Median

225

225

0%    

225

195

15.4%

226

206

9.7%

223

229

-2.6%

Avg. Active Price

340

334

1.8%

340

311

9.3%

336

310

8.4%

347

337

3%

Avg. Sold Price

255

258

-1.2%

255

230

10.9%

260

241

7.9%

265

255

3.9%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jul. 2014 – Sep. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Sep. 15

Aug. 15

% Change

Sep. 15

Sep. 14

% Change

Jul. 15 to Sep. 15

Jul. 14 to Sep. 14

% Change

10/1/2015 – 10/8/2015

9/1/2015 – 9/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.9

2.9

0%    

2.9

4.1

-29.5%

2.7

3.7

-26.7%

13.9

13.6

2.2%

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published October 2015, based on data available at the end of September 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on October 10, 2015 at 11:29 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for August 2015

Home Sales, Prices Continue to Coast Along in August

 

August was another very solid for the Boise real estate market. Sales and prices were both up solidly and while low inventory remains a concern it does not seem to be causing too much distress for buyers or pushing prices to unrealistic levels.  On the sales side in August it does feel like the market took its foot off the gas slightly compared to the last several months.  While the 887 closed sales was a solid 9.9% increase from a year ago, we have been experiencing year over year sales increases more in the +20% range for several months. It’s hard to pinpoint the cause. It could be the  beginning of the normal seasonal slowdown, or we may finally be starting reach the capacity of what a market this size can support volume-wise, or maybe it is the pre-cursor of a broader market slow down. Most would agree that if interest rates do go up significantly there will be a negative effect on sales but rates really haven’t yet gone above 4% on a consistent basis and the much threatened fed rate increase this fall seems in jeopardy due to the lack of confidence in the strength of the economy.

 

Prices, meanwhile, continue to increase but at very manageable levels.  The average sales price ($259K) was up 4.4% vs 2014 while the average price per square foot ($124) rose 3.6%. These percentages are only slightly higher than the current rate of inflation and therefore for the time being allay any real concerns that the market is overheating.  These are certainly sustainable increases given the overall strength of the local economy. As discussed above, a significant rate increase could impact prices as well as volume by reducing buyer’s buying power as well as confidence. This could especially impact new construction which is typically at a higher price point.  Already this year we have seen new construction drop from around 20% of the total closed sales to just 13.5% in August.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

887

+9.9

100

2610

-16.3

100

$124

+3.6

$259K

+4.4

47

-25.4

2.9

Non Distress

860

+13.2

97.0

2509

-14.4

96.1

$125

+3.4

$261K

+3.6

46

-23.3

2.9

REO

19

-29.6

2.1

23

-59.6

0.9

$94

-3.1

$169K

+8.3

52

-14.8

1.2

Short Sale

8

-55.6

0.9

73

-38.7

2.8

$102

-2.4

$242K

+2.1

139

-24.9

9.1

New Construction

120

-9.1

13.5

816

-4.3

31.3

$141

+3.5

$348K

+12.3

85

-8.6

6.8

 

As we roll into fall it’s hard to know exactly what to expect.  If the forces that typically affect the market remain in relative status quo then I think we can expect the healthy market to continue in Boise.  If there is a dramatic shift in interest rates, consumer confidence, an/or the local job market we can expect the market to react accordingly.

 

Thank you all for your comments, questions and referrals and for making 2015 another successful year for my business.

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

For Sale

2610

2638

-1.1%

2610

3117

-16.3%

2628

3036

-13.4%

2423

2546

-4.8%

Sold

887

1084

-18.2%

887

807

9.9%

1027

860

19.4%

208

199

4.5%

Pended

979

977

0.2%

979

761

28.6%

981

809

21.3%

301

288

4.5%

August 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in August 2015 is 2610 units. It is down 1.1% compared to the last month and down 16.3% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in August 2015 is 887 units. It is down 18.2% compared to the last month and up 9.9% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in August 2015 is 979 units. It is up 0.2% compared to the last month and up 28.6% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

124.3

127.3

-2.4%

124.3

120

3.6%

126.3

120.4

4.9%

126

125

0.8%

August 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in August 2015 is $124. It is down 2.4% compared to the last month and up 3.6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

47

48

-2.1%

47

63

-25.4%

47

55

-14.5%

47

49

-4.1%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

95

98

-3.1%

August 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in August 2015 is 47. It is down 2.1% compared to the last month and down 25.4% compared to the last year.

August 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling**

Sold/Original List Price % in August 2015 is 97%. It is the same as compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

334

335

-0.3%

334

308

8.4%

334

311

7.4%

338

336

0.6%

Avg. Sold Price

259

267

-3%

259

248

4.4%

264

246

7.3%

255

253

0.8%

August 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in August 2015 is $334. It is down 0.3% compared to the last month and up 8.4% compared to the last year.

August 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in August 2015 is $259. It is down 3% compared to the last month and up 4.4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jun. 2014 – Aug. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Aug. 15

Jul. 15

% Change

Aug. 15

Aug. 14

% Change

Jun. 15 to Aug. 15

Jun. 14 to Aug. 14

% Change

9/1/2015 – 9/10/2015

8/1/2015 – 8/10/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.9

2.4

20.5%

2.9

3.9

-25.9%

2.6

3.5

-25.5%

11.6

12.8

-9.4%

August 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in August 2015 is 2.9. It is up 20.5% compared to the last month and down 25.9% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published September 2015, based on data available at the end of August 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on September 15, 2015 at 8:24 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2015

BOISE REAL ESTATE MARKET STAYS HEALTHY BUT RATE RISE LOOMS

 

An article last week in the Idaho Statesman painted a pretty gloomy picture of the Boise Real Estate Market and predicted a drop in the market starting… now.  I guess that sells papers, but from my vantage point the reality is quite a bit different and the outlook considerably more positive. First of all, right now the market here is very healthy.  Sales are up and while inventory is tight, prices are rising consistently but not recklessly. For the umpteenth time in the last 4 years the consensus is that interest rates are going to rise but no one really knows how soon or how much.  That simmering volcano known as the Federal Reserve has recently shown signs, albeit erratic, of rumbling to life and causing rates to rise and that definitely will affect the market when it happens.  In the long term, depending on how far rates go, some buyers will get priced out of the market by higher payments.  Sales will drop as a result which will eventually cause downward pressure on prices. However in the short term rising rates, or a least the credible threat of such, may actually stimulate the market as Buyers scramble to get in before their purchasing power begins to evaporate.  Sellers on the other hand, convinced the market is peaking and headed for collapse will rush to list now. Either way, for the short term at least, the market looks to remain robust.  And in the long term the loss of some portion of the buyer pool to higher rates may be more than offset in our market by the continued strong in-migration of Buyers, many flush with cash from selling property in more expensive places like California and Washington.

 

Here’s a rundown of the July numbers. Closed sales at 1030 were up 14.2% from a year ago.  While this is smaller than the 25% gain we saw in June, Pending sales were up 28.4% in July indicating we should have strong closings in August and September.  Inventory continues to be low with only 2.6 months available at the current rate of sale. The average days on market also is low at 49 days (-5.8%), indicating homes are selling quickly.

 

Given this scenario of strong demand and very low inventory prices should surging, raising fears of a bubble.  So far in 2015 that has not been the case.  In July the average price per square foot was $126, a 4% increase from a year ago.  The average sales price meanwhile was up 9.5% to $266,000.  While that 9.5% rise is approaching what I would consider un-sustainable appreciation, year to date the average sales price has risen a much more reasonable 5.6%.  One other interesting wrinkle in the price data is in new construction.  The average sales price ($316K) actually fell 3.7% while the average price per square foot rose 4.3% to $142.  This would suggest that builders are building smaller homes in response to tepid sales. New construction has lost 3 or 4 percentage points of market share in the last year and in July had a share of 16.8% of all houses sold while new home inventory was almost 30% of the homes available. Distressed sales meanwhile represented only 2.5% of all sales, the lowest since before the last market peak in 2006. Only 3.8% of the available homes are considered distressed, also a post 2006 low.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1030

+14.2

100

2638

-13.3

100

$126

+4.0

$266K

+9.5

49

-5.8

2.6

Non Distress

1005

+18.1

97.6

2534

-11.3

96.1

$127

+3.4

$268K

+7.6

47

-7.8

2.5

REO

12

-64.7

1.2

20

-69.2

0.8

$84

-6.1

$130K

-6.5

70

+20.7

1.7

Short Sale

13

-7.1

1.3

78

-30.4

3.0

$91

-6.7

$182K

+9.6

160

+8.1

6.0

New Construction

173

+3.6

16.8

784

-2.4

29.7

$142

+4.3

$316K

-3.7

93

+27.4

4.5

 

So while interest rates and global economic factors always bear watching I continue to see a strong market here in Boise at least in the short.  It is a sellers market for sure but buyers should also not hesitate because their buying power may be reduced if rates do go up soon.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments and referrals.

 

 

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

Current Boise Real Estate Market Data

 

View my profile on LinkedIn

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Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

For Sale

2638

2636

0.1%

2638

3042

-13.3%

2587

2936

-11.9%

2474

2501

-1.1%

Sold

1030

1112

-7.4%

1030

902

14.2%

1036

875

18.4%

82

156

-47.4%

Pended

1021

999

2.2%

1021

793

28.8%

1024

842

21.6%

185

161

14.9%

July 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in July 2015 is 2638 units. It is up 0.1% compared to the last month and down 13.3% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in July 2015 is 1030 units. It is down 7.4% compared to the last month and up 14.2% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in July 2015 is 1021 units. It is up 2.2% compared to the last month and up 28.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

126.1

127

-0.7%

126.1

121.3

4%

125.4

120.5

4.1%

130

125

4%

July 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in July 2015 is $126. It is down 0.7% compared to the last month and up 4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

49

47

4.3%

49

52

-5.8%

50

53

-5.7%

36

48

-25%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

July 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend Remains Steady**

Continuous Days on Market in July 2015 is 49. It is up 4.3% compared to the last month and down 5.8% compared to the last year.

July 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in July 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

335

332

0.9%

335

310

8.1%

332

314

5.7%

338

334

1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

266

265

0.4%

266

243

9.5%

262

244

7.4%

265

267

-0.7%

July 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in July 2015 is $335. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 8.1% compared to the last year.

July 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in July 2015 is $266. It is up 0.4% compared to the last month and up 9.5% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.6

2.4

8.4%

2.6

3.4

-23.7%

2.5

3.4

-26.8%

30.2

16

88.6%

July 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in July 2015 is 2.6. It is up 8.4% compared to the last month and down 23.7% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published August 2015, based on data available at the end of July 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 1:31 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2015

Unit Sales Continue to Surge,  Prices Up Too.

In June the Boise real estate market saw a 25.4% surge in closed sales over 2014 and a 13% jump from May.  There were 1092 closed sales in Ada County, the busiest month of 2015 so far by a long shot. This caps a several month long run of double digit increases in year over year sales.  There is a sign that the trend might moderate slightly in the next couple months because pending sales, a good indicator of future closings, peaked in April and have dropped slightly in each of the last 2 months.  This would suggest fewer closings in July and August.

Meanwhile inventories continue to be tight and there is some concern that as a result prices will spike.  So far that is not really happening, although prices are up moderately.  There were 2636 homes listed as active in Ada County which is off 10.6% from a year ago.  This translates into 2.4 months of inventory at the current rate of sales.  Anything below three months of inventory is considered tight.  Furthermore the average days on market has dropped to 48 (-7.7% vs 2014).  As recently as January the average days on market was as high as 83 meaning homes are on average selling 42% faster than they were in January.  Some but not all of that is due to normal seasonal fluctuation in the market.

Prices are rising, but at least for now at a manageable and sustainable (I hope) pace.  The average price per square foot was $127 in June, up 6% from a year ago.  The average sales price was $267,000 an 8.1% increase over 2014.  If we can stay in the 5-8% range of annual appreciation I think the market will stay healthy.  Anything over 10% and I will be concerned that we may see a new bubble forming.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1092

+25.4

100

2636

-10.6

100

$127

+6.0

$267K

+8.1

48

-7.7

2.4

Non Distress

1056

+29.7

96.7

2521

-8.3

95.6

$128

+5.4

$270K

+7.6

47

-6.0

2.4

REO

20

-47.4

1.8

30

-55.9

1.1

$92

+0.1

$169K

+7.0

52

-22.4

1.5

Short Sale

14

-17.6

1.3

78

-37.1

3.0

$103

+3.7

$187K

-15.8

142

+34.0

5.6

New Construction

160

+1.9

14.7

809

+2.4

30.7

$144

+7.4

$340K

+4.3

97

+5.4

5.1

 

One other area of concern that I have noted in recent months is new construction.  As recently as a year ago new construction had blossomed to over 20% of all sales are being left for dead during the recession.  That number has now slipped to only 14.7% of total volume and while the market as a whole saw a 25.4% increase in unit sales, sales of new homes were only up 1.9%.  The biggest reason is price.  There is a roughly $85,000 (34%) difference in the average sales price of a new home versus resale and that gap means some buyers are not able to afford a brand new home. One disclaimer in discussing new construction using the data available to me is that it only includes properties listed in the MLS not private sales and build jobs where the property is never listed. The only way to get true data would be to analyze the building permits issued by each municipality and the county, a long time consuming process.

For the short term, looking at the market as a whole, expect more of the same.  Interest rates have inched up to around 4% and the national economic recovery is tepid but here in Boise there seems to be a continuing demand for housing due to a relatively strong job market and the influx of out of staters both working age and retirees.  As always your comments, questions, and referrals are welcome.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

 

 

 


Prepared for you by: CamJohnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

umber of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2636

2486

6%

2636

2948

-10.6%

2481

2769

-10.4%

2466

2376

3.8%

Sold

1092

963

13.4%

1092

871

25.4%

981

816

20.2%

184

247

-25.5%

Pended

1033

1060

-2.5%

1033

873

18.3%

1070

857

24.9%

258

302

-14.6%

June 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in June 2015 is 2636 units. It is up 6% compared to the last month and down 10.6% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in June 2015 is 1092 units. It is up 13.4% compared to the last month and up 25.4% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in June 2015 is 1033 units. It is down 2.5% compared to the last month and up 18.3% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

127.1

123

3.3%

127.1

119.9

6%

124.5

119.1

4.5%

126

124

1.6%

June 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in June 2015 is $127. It is up 3.3% compared to the last month and up 6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

48

55

-12.7%

48

52

-7.7%

53

57

-7%

44

49

-10.2%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

June 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in June 2015 is 48. It is down 12.7% compared to the last month and down 7.7% compared to the last year.

June 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in June 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

332

330

0.6%

332

316

5.1%

332

317

4.7%

337

336

0.3%

Avg. Sold Price

267

255

4.7%

267

247

8.1%

256

241

6.2%

273

258

5.8%

June 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in June 2015 is $332. It is up 0.6% compared to the last month and up 5.1% compared to the last year.

June 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in June 2015 is $267. It is up 4.7% compared to the last month and up 8.1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.4

2.6

-7.7%

2.4

3.4

-29.5%

2.5

3.4

-26.5%

13.4

9.6

39.5%

June 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in June 2015 is 2.4. It is down 7.7% compared to the last month and down 29.5% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published July 2015, based on data available at the end of June 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on July 15, 2015 at 12:49 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2015

STRONG TRENDS CONTINUE IN MAY FOR BOISE REAL ESTATE MARKET

May was another strong month for the Boise Real Estate Market.  While unit sales continue to surge (+10.8%) and inventory is tight prices are rising at a simmer not a boil.  All good news given that with demand as high as it is and inventory at only 2.6 months one would expect prices to be ballooning. Many, including myself, see the potential for a bubble to form due to the lack of inventory in relation to demand but so far the market is maintaining pretty good balance.  In fact, the average price per square foot at $123 is up only 2.0% (below the rate of inflation) and the average sales price ($255K) is up 5.4%. In new construction, where prices had been rising faster, the average price per square foot was up 2.1% and average sales price ($316K) was up only 1.3% from a year ago.

The other good news this month was that for the first time in almost 10 years distressed sales made up less than 3% of the market, 2.7% to be exact.  This is an impressive milestone given that just 4 years ago distressed sales were over 50% of the market in Ada County, and over 70% in Canyon County.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

944

+10.8

100

2486

-11.8

100

$123

+2.0

$255K

+5.4

56

-3.1

2.6

Non Distress

918

+15.5

97.2

2369

-9.5

95.3

$124

+1.6

$258K

+4.0

54

+5.9

2.6

REO

14

-56.2

1.5

33

-58.2

1.3

$77

-18.7

$176K

+6.0

72

+28.6

2.4

Short Sale

11

-54.2

1.2

81

-28.9

3.3

$93

-2.2

$194K

+27.6

166

+3.8

7.4

New Construction

153

+7.7

16.2

788

+0.3

31.7

$137

+2.1

$316K

+1.3

122

+18.4

5.2

 

A lot of people are asking how the market compares to the last peak, which I peg as being late summer of 2006.  It will be September before I can truly compare this year to the peak but I am able to look at the last three months (March, April, and  May) and get a pretty good idea of where we stand. Last month I took a broad look at the market and said that volume had recovered and in some cases exceeded that of 2006 but prices were still lagging slightly behind.  It seems that with current trends by the end of the year we could be back at 2006 prices (albeit not adjusted for 9 years of inflation).  This month, thanks to some great questions from Kristi Larson at Thornton-Oliver-Keller,  I took a look at how the market compares at various price points. It is interesting to see that volume in the low and high and of the market is way above 2006 levels but in the heart of the market ($200-400K) we are not back to those levels.  The table below illustrates this.  As far as prices go, looking only at the average price per square foot, we still have some ground to make up across the board.  And given that there has been some inflation overall in the last nine years we definitely are not back to 2006 levels as far as price.  As we get closer to the actual peak months and can compare apples to apples I will continue to keep an eye on where we stand.

ADA COUNTY COMPARISON 2006 VS. 2015 BY PRICE RANGE

 

Price Range

 

0-149,999

150-199,999

200-249,999

250-399,999

400-599,999

600+

ADA COUNTY

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

# Sold by Quarter

61

121

+98.4

218

245

+12.4

171

166

-2.9

259

248

-4.2

51

64

+25.5

13

21

+61.5

# For Sale by Quarter

98

146

+49.0

425

451

+6.1

675

417

-38.2

1245

833

-33.1

408

295

-27.7

278

178

-36.0

# Pended by Quarter

47

140

+197.9

200

294

+47.0

161

199

+23.6

256

299

+16.8

68

100

+47.1

13

29

+123.1

Average $/SF

120

107

-10.8

123

109

-11.4

123

112

-8.9

127

124

-2.4

153

143

-6.5

193

180

-6.7

 

“Quarters” are the most recent three months (March-May) for each year.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comment, and referrals.  Have a great summer.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

For Sale

2486

2321

7.1%

2486

2818

-11.8%

2319

2575

-9.9%

2439

2200

10.9%

Sold

944

889

6.2%

944

852

10.8%

866

735

17.8%

190

165

15.2%

Pended

1114

1123

-0.8%

1114

859

29.7%

1062

829

28.1%

270

254

6.3%

May 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in May 2015 is 2486 units. It is up 7.1% compared to the last month and down 11.8% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in May 2015 is 944 units. It is up 6.2% compared to the last month and up 10.8% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in May 2015 is 1114 units. It is down 0.8% compared to the last month and up 29.7% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

122.8

122.9

-0.1%

122.8

120.4

2%

123

117.5

4.7%

124

122

1.6%

May 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in May 2015 is $123. It is down 0.1% compared to the last month and up 2% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

56

56

0%    

56

54

3.7%

62

64

-3.1%

49

66

-25.8%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

98

99

-1%

May 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in May 2015 is 56. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 3.7% compared to the last year.

May 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in May 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

330

335

-1.5%

330

317

4.1%

333

314

6.1%

335

340

-1.5%

Avg. Sold Price

255

245

4.1%

255

242

5.4%

252

236

6.8%

258

246

4.9%

May 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in May 2015 is $330. It is down 1.5% compared to the last month and up 4.1% compared to the last year.

May 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in May 2015 is $255. It is up 4.1% compared to the last month and up 5.4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.6

2.6

0%    

2.6

3.3

-21.2%

2.7

3.5

-22.8%

12.8

13.3

-3.8%

May 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in May 2015 is 2.6. It is the same as compared to the last month and down 21.2% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

If your email program is not displaying the chart graphs properly, please click on the following link which will take you to a web page that contains the graphs: Show Chart

*All reports are published June 2015, based on data available at the end of May 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on June 13, 2015 at 9:43 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for April 2015

ANOTHER STRONG SHOWING IN APRIL FOR BOISE REAL ESTATE

 

April was another very strong month for the Boise Real Estate Market.  In a nutshell, both volume and prices are up and inventory, while getting tight, is still high enough that it isn’t having an obvious negative effect on sales volume or causing prices to spike. That is sales volume was up a whopping 18.6% and the average price was up a very reasonable 5.6% from a year ago. At least at this point it seems the usual spring/summer increase in listings is able to satisfy the higher demand.  The danger is if inventory can’t keep up we will see the volume growth held back by Buyers not having enough choices and prices will accelerate more steeply.  Classic symptoms of “overheating” and the possible prelude to a  dreaded bubble.  So inventory bears watching.  There were 2321 homes available in April which is down 8.7% from 2014 and at the current rate of sales we have 2.7 months of inventory.  Anything under 3 and heads start to turn but it is not a crisis…yet.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

859

+18.6

100

2321

-8.7

100

$123

+5.4

$245K

+5.6

56

-13.8

2.7

Non Distress

819

+26.8

95.3

2220

-5.5

95.7

$124

+4.0

$247K

+3.3

54

-11.5

2.7

REO

29

-35.6

3.4

25

-64.8

1.1

$101

+8.1

$215K

+31.1

68

-4.2

0.9

Short Sale

8

-72.4

0.9

72

-40.0

3.1

$102

+12.7

$169K

-3.4

167

+17.6

9.0

New Construction

117

+6.4

13.6

773

+3.3

33.3

$131

+0.8

$290K

-5.5

126

+15.6

6.6

 

Where is all the demand coming from?  Some of it I would call “organic” meaning people that are already here but have recently either founds the means or the confidence to buy.  These are people that may have been on the fence but have decided now is the time to buy before prices and possibly interest rates rise.  We are also starting to see buyers who have been through a short sale or foreclosure becoming eligible to buy again as the waiting periods required after a distressed sale are starting to expire.  But a large part of the growth in demand is coming from in-migration to Idaho, a trend that was somewhat muted during the Great Recession but appears to be enjoying a renaissance.  There was a very interesting article in the Idaho Statesman last week about where people are coming from and where Idahoans are moving to. They used DMV records from drivers licenses to compile the data and while admittedly this misses those who fail to get a new license when they move it is still a pretty good indicator of what is happening. The typical person moving to Idaho comes from either California, Oregon, or Washington and there are a lot more of them coming in then there are Idahoans moving out. The article suggests that 43% of all population growth in 2014 was due to in-migration as opposed to births or aliens landing.  Since newborns and aliens typically don’t get drivers licenses they used data from the census bureau to calculate that. From just those three states in 2014 18,241 people traded in their licenses versus 5424 moving to them. That is a net in-migration of 12,817 in 2014. A large number of these people (42.1%) moved to Ada (29.3%) or Canyon (12.8%)Counties.  And of the Californians that came last year while the largest group were 21-30 years old (27%), surprisingly 20.5% were 61 or older, a 52% increase from 2011.  More and more people are choosing to come to Idaho to either retire or be near children or grandkids that are already here.

 

Another question I have been getting a lot lately is, “Where is the market compared to before the recession?”. We have certainly come a long way since the market bottomed out in about 2010 but are we back to the pre-recession peak?  Arguably, the peak came in mid 2006 but in order to compare data from this year with 2006 I choose to examine the most recent three months that we have data for in both years—February-April.  The answer I found is that the market isn’t quite there yet.  Volume wise things look very good.  Closed sales 2014 vs 2006 were up 5.1% while pended sales are up 39.8% and available inventory is down 19.4%.  We averaged 3 months of inventory this year versus 3.9 months for the same period in 2006. On the price side of the equation the average price per square foot was $129 in 2006 vs $121 now a 6.2% decrease.  The average sales prices was $252K then and is $249K now, a 1.2% difference. Buyers should thus appreciate that both prices and interest rates are generally still lower than they were just prior to the peak. If current market trends continue that will not be true for much longer.  One more reason to buy now.

Your questions, comments, and referrals are always welcome.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

 

Facts and Trends

TM

Published May 2015*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

For Sale

2321

2151

7.9%

2321

2542

-8.7%

2182

2374

-8.1%

Sold

859

763

12.6%

859

724

18.6%

726

604

20.2%

Pended

1173

961

22.1%

1173

838

40%

962

727

32.3%

April 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in April 2015 is 2321 units. It is up 7.9% compared to the last month and down 8.7% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in April 2015 is 859 units. It is up 12.6% compared to the last month and up 18.6% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in April 2015 is 1173 units. It is up 22.1% compared to the last month and up 40% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

122.9

123.2

-0.2%

122.9

116.6

5.4%

121.7

115

5.8%

April 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in April 2015 is $123. It is down 0.2% compared to the last month and up 5.4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Avg CDOM

56

75

-25.3%

56

65

-13.8%

68

73

-6.8%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

97

97

0%    

April 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in April 2015 is 56. It is down 25.3% compared to the last month and down 13.8% compared to the last year.

April 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in April 2015 is 98%. It is up 1% compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Avg. Active Price

335

334

0.3%

335

319

5%

330

308

7.1%

Avg. Sold Price

245

257

-4.7%

245

232

5.6%

249

230

8.3%

April 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in April 2015 is $335. It is up 0.3% compared to the last month and up 5% compared to the last year.

April 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in April 2015 is $245. It is down 4.7% compared to the last month and up 5.6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.7

2.8

-3.5%

2.7

3.5

-22.8%

3

3.9

-22.9%

April 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in April 2015 is 2.7. It is down 3.5% compared to the last month and down 22.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

 

*All reports are published May 2015, based on data available at the end of April 2015. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on May 13, 2015 at 3:52 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,