Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2020

The End Of The New “Normal” For Boise Real Estate?

It’s no secret that the Boise real estate market has been on somewhat of a roller coaster the last 15+ years. Since the “Liar Loan” fueled peak in 2006-7 and the collapse in 2008-10 the market has risen steadily and has been firmly in record territory for the last couple years. Rising prices and low inventory have been happening for so long in our market that to many it has become the new “normal”. Traditionally however, a “normal” or stable market has meant price increases were keeping pace with inflation and wage growth and were thus “sustainable”, and inventory  was around 6 months.  A neutral market where neither buyers or sellers had undue leverage in negotiating a sale.  Unless you have been in the business for over 20 years you have never really seen “normal”.  Based on recent events related to the COVID-19 virus it is likely that even the new “normal” won’t last.  While it is too soon to accurately predict how drastic or long lasting the effects on real estate will be, no one is denying that change is coming.  Recently Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provided an updated outlook on the 2020 housing market.  He feels the impact will be significant but relatively short lived as there is nothing systemically wrong with the housing market. Both buyers and sellers may pause due to uncertainty and fear but once the outbreak has largely peaked things will quickly get back on track as far as real estate goes. I guess it really will depend to a large degree on the length and severity of the outbreak. That prognosis is changing daily with one report earlier today indicating the federal government is now planning for an 18 month pandemic. If this lasts 18 months I would suspect the market impacts to be pretty severe as opposes to a 3-6 month disruption.

In the meantime, February’s numbers, prior to Coronavirus becoming an issue in the US,  saw a continuation of the new normal—steeply rising prices and very low inventory.  Overall home sales rose 3.6% in February versus 2019 with 757 homes sold.  New construction continued to lead the way with a 14.3% increase.  Lack of inventory continued to be the prime constraint on the number of homes sold.  There were 1201 homes for sale in February (-17.3%) which based on the current rate of sales is 1.6 months of inventory.  A very strong seller’s market.

Prices continue to reflect the tight supply and strong demand.  While inventory was down 17.3% pending sales were up 24.2% meaning that assuming those sales close we should have a strong March and upward pressure on prices would continue. The average sale price in Ada County was $406K up 13.4% year over year while the average price per square foot was $189, up 10.5%.  Both of these numbers are at or very near all time records, as they have been for over a year.   The Canyon County market showed similar trends.  The average sale price ($291K) was up 14.1% while the average price per square foot ($154) rose 8.5%.  Expect inventory of existing homes throughout the Valley to remain very low, although there is some uncertainty as far as how much COVID-19 will affect the demand side.  While closings of homes that went pending before the outbreak hit may make for a strong March in terms of overall sales all bets are off after that. I will be watching the numbers closely in the coming months to see how this all unfolds.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 757 +3.6 100 1201 -17.3 100 $189 +10.5 $406K +13.4 56 -1.8 1.6
New Construction 312 +14.3 41.2 790 -12.3 65.8 $188 +8.0 $425K +5.7 88 -4.3 2.5

 

Canyon County 371 +18.9 100 609 -5.3 100 $154 +8.5 $291K +14.1 53 +23.3 1.6

I encourage all of us to stay calm, stay safe, and stay healthy in these unprecedented times.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any comments or questions about the information in this report. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on March 18, 2020 at 1:51 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2020

Boise Real Estate Volume and Prices Both Sizzle in January 

You probably have already seen the headlines in the local media about home prices reaching a new record high in January. While it makes for good headlines and is no doubt true, is it really news? Not if you have been following the market either with or without the help of this report.  Our market bottomed out from the Great Recession approximately 9 years ago and since the 2nd quarter of 2011 has seen steadily climbing prices and strong volume.  While I don’t recall the exact month where we not only eclipsed the high price points from the previous boom but also set a new record, suffice it to say it was years ago—2017 or 2018.  Since then the market has continued to grow and prices have continued to go up steadily, meaning that with very few exceptions we reach a new record high for prices every month. Noteworthy but hardly breaking news.  The real headlines will come when we see a month when prices actually drop.  Well, if January is any indication, we may be waiting awhile for that to happen.

The average sold price for Boise real estate in January was $405,000 a 12.2% increase from 2019 and a new record, don’t you know! Meanwhile the average price per square foot rose 7.5% to $186 (actually not a record—it was $191 in December). And volume, which in most of 2019 seem to be constrained by a dearth of available existing homes for sale, surged 25.4% ahead of last January with 780 homes sold.  New construction led the charge with 308 homes sold (+41.3%) and represented 39.5% of all homes sold and 66.7% of all homes for sale. Inventory continues to be extremely low at 1.6 months although the average days on market (58) is actually 16% higher than last January. The trends in Canyon County are fairly similar.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 780 +25.4 100 1221 -18.3 100 $186 +7.5 $406K +12.2 58 +16.0 1.6
New Construction 308 +41.3 39.5 815 -14.7 66.7 $193 +7.8 $444K +7.5 84 +25.4 2.6

 

Canyon County 337 +17.8 100 695 +11.7 100 $152 +10.9 $290K +13.3 48 +2.0 2.1

On January 30 Windermere was honored to host our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, who in what has become an annual event,  gave an excellent presentation on the Economic and Housing Outlook for 2020 both for the nation and the local market.  While he had lots of positive things to say about our local economy and housing market he also cautioned that affordability is becoming a real problem.  Those of you who follow this report know that I have expressed my concerns about affordability for well over a year and Matthew’s data serves to emphasize this issue.  His slides are very informative and I am happy to share them in PDF form with anyone who is interested.  The file is rather large so I am not including it here since many email servers limit the size allowed, but if you would like to see his presentation slides please contact me and I will arrange to get them to you.  Another look at affordability from the 30,000 foot level and not just related to housing can be found in this recent article in the Atlantic.  It argues that in what is hailed by some as the best US Economy in decades American families continue to be bled dry and it is only the corporations and the super wealthy that are truly benefitting.  So much for trickle down economics!

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2019

Volume Up Slightly While Prices Surge By Double Digits 

Overall the number of closed sales was up 1.3% in November in the Boise real estate market with new construction leading the way. Of the 935 closed sales 304 (32.5%) were new construction.   Sales of new homes rose 19.2% for the month while sales of previously owned homes dropped by 5.5%.  This continues to be a function of lack of available inventory not lack of demand.  While inventories were starting to creep up slightly in the last few months, in November the number of homes for sale (1642) was down 11.7% from a year ago and also down about 12% from October. Fall and winter tend to be much slower than the summer months but the drop in numbers year over year indicates we definitely are not out of the woods yet as far as low inventories go. The average days on market of 42, while 20% higher than last November still is very low for this time of year and we are still in the “Strong Seller’s Market” range as far as inventory goes with only 1.8 months available based on the current rate of sales.

Prices have been rising since 2011 but in recent months the rate of increase had dropped into the mid to high single digits.  Not so in November when the average price per square foot rose 11.4% to $186 and the average sales price rose 15.7% to $404,000.  Both of those are, not surprisingly, new record highs.  The double whammy of low inventory and rapidly rising prices continues to put the pinch on potential buyers more and more of whom are either being priced out or are frustrated to the point of giving up and seeking alternative housing.  The means renting for many and moving in with family for some.  Were it not for the fact that interest rates continue to hover under 4% this “crisis” would be even more acute.  That time may come sooner than we think, although Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner believes only modest increases in interest rates are on the horizon.  He recently published his Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020 in the form of a short video.  It is worth a listen and is packed with good information, plus his accent is so cute! Matthew is coming to Boise on January 30 at 10:00 am for a presentation at JUMP on the Idaho economy and real estate market.  In the past these have been very informative and well attended.  If you are interested in going please let me know.  Admission is free but seating is limited and a ticket is required.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 935 +1.3 100 1642 -11.7 100 $186 +11.4 $404K +15.8 42 +20.0 1.8
New Construction 304 +19.2 32.5 922 -8.7 56.2 $194 +12.1 $455K +13.5 62 +29.2 3.0

 

Canyon County 380 -5.2 100 860 +19.8 100 $153 +10.9 $284K +15.0 35 +20.7 2.3

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments or if you know someone who would like to receive this report once a month.  Special thanks to those that have referred friends and family this year.  Referrals are the highest compliment I can receive and I really appreciate them! Best wishes for the Holidays and for a thriving 2020! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

 

*All reports are published December 2019, based on data available at the end of November 2019, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
Posted on December 14, 2019 at 1:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2019

Sales Drop While Prices Hit Another New Record High 

The Boise Real Estate Market continues it’s unusual combination of flat to dropping sales volume with relentlessly rising prices. While the number of homes sold in Ada County in June (1159) was off 10% from a year ago and the average days on market is creeping up, inventory overall remains very tight and prices hit yet another new record high. June’s drop in sales is especially significant in that June is typically one of the busiest if no the busiest month of the year. This year not only were sales below last year but they dropped by 100 (7.9%) from May 2019.  The average days on market meanwhile was 32 in June, indicative of a continued very strong seller’s market but up 14.3% from a year ago.  At the current rates of sales there is 1.6 months of inventory.  This is also very low (6 being typical of a stable market) but, remarkably, is 33% higher than last June.

Prices keep going up regardless of the drop in sales.  The average price per square foot hit $181, a new record, and a 9% increase from 2018, while the average sold price also stayed in record territory jumping 9.4% to $395K.  Since January 1 the average price of a home in Ada County has risen by more than $30,000 (9.1%).   So while sales are down it is not apparently due to lack of demand but relative lack of supply particularly at the lower price points.  As I pointed out last month most of the drop in sales is coming in the under $300K sector of the market.  Sales of homes from $0-299K were off 32.3% in June while sales of homes from $500-699K were up 43.6%.  Sales in the segment in the middle, homes from $300-499K were basically flat—up +0.4%.  Another statistic of note in June was that sales of new construction also dropped 11.8%.  This is in marked contrast to recent months where I have reported that new construction seemed to be keeping the broader market afloat.  This was the first significant drop off in quite some time so it remains to be seen if it was a quirk or the beginning of a new trend that could have market wide implications.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1159 -10.0 100 1830 +17.2 100 $181 +9.0 $395K +9.4 32 +14.3 1.6
New Construction 292 -11.8 25.2 869 +27.8 47.5 $184 +7.6 $431K +6.4 69 +13.1 3.0

 

Canyon County 517 +1.4 100 746 +23.5 100 $148 +14.7 $274K +12.3 33 +43.5 1.4

 

Barring any major unexpected macro-economic or geo-political event, expect more of the same at least through the summer.  Boise strong job market, attractive quality of life, and low interest rates should keep the fire burning for the time being.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and stay cool out there. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on July 16, 2019 at 2:59 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2019

Prices Hit New Record High…Again

Boise Real Estate prices hit another record high in May—not surprising given continued strong demand and low supply.  The average sales price in Ada County was $386,000 up 11.9% while the median sales price was $340,000 up 13.3%.  The average price per square foot also reached a new high of $179 (+9.1%).  While closed sales were down 5% for the month, this is not due to lack of demand, but lack of affordable inventory.  The number of homes for sale (1630) is actually up sharply versus 2018, +23.2%, but the price point of those homes for sales continues to skew higher and higher putting more and more buyers out of reach in Ada County. New construction continues to buck the overall sales trend and sales (376) were up 9.9% versus a year ago.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1216 -5.0 100 1630 +23.2 100 $179 +9.1 $386K +11.9 35 0.0 1.3
New Construction 376 +9.9 30.9 806 +31.9 49.4 $181 +6.5 $414K +8.4 70 -11.4 2.1

 

Canyon County 515 -1.7 100 669 +24.1 100 $147 +16.7 $267K +16.6 40 +33.3 1.3

 

Taking a closer look at the numbers by price range illustrates that there are way fewer homes available and selling in the most affordable segments and the “sweet spot” for the market continues to move higher to around $350K. As the chart below indicates homes priced below $300,000 are becoming a rare commodity but this is still the price range that a majority of buyers, especially first time buyers, fall into.  Meanwhile sales in the higher price categories are booming.

Ada County Residential Real Estate Sales By Price Range May 2019

Price # Sold Sold % Change # For Sale For Sale % Change Day On Market DOM % Change Months Inventory
0-199K 24 -62.5 7 -75.0 22 +46.7 0.3
200-299K 382 -33.1 235 -19.0 21 -8.7 0.6
300-399K 395 +21.2 512 +31.3 39 +2.6 1.3
400-499K 225 +31.6 323 +26.2 48 -7.7 1.4
500-599K 96 +35.2 210 +94.4 40 +5.3 2.2
600-799K 65 +20.4 171 +59.8 38 -50.0 2.6
800K+ 29 +26.1 172 +19.4 59 -49.1 5.9

 

As you can see by the days on market and month’s of inventory columns, anything under $300K doesn’t last for much more than the blink of an eye.  It is also interesting to note that even in the highest price category that I broke out, 800K+, there is less than 6 months of inventory, the level that has traditionally been the benchmark of a “balanced” market.  Interest rates continue to be very low so this is allowing buyers some additional wiggle room as far as qualifying for a home but as quickly as prices are rising it is likely that this will be less and less of a factor.  A substantial rise in interest rates would almost certainly force a significant number of buyers to the sidelines and could be the trigger of a real slow down in demand.  Of course repeated predictions of interest rates of 6% or higher have fortunately not panned out as of yet but at some point we will be facing that reality due to the cyclical nature of real estate.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on June 20, 2019 at 1:45 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for April 2019

New Construction Drives Volume and Record High Prices

In the Boise real estate market, where overall volume has been generally declining for several months, new construction has provided a critical shot in the arm. Overall sales were actually up 3.5% in April for only the 3rd month in almost a year.  This is the result of a massive surge in homebuilding that saw new home sales increase by 54% in April compared to 2018.  If you back out new construction from the overall sales figures a different story emerges—sales of previously owned homes were down 12.2% in April. New construction accounted for 35.2% of all homes sold and 52.3% of all the homes for sale. Builders seem to be finding lots to build on in Ada County even with land prices at a premium. The primary focus of construction activity in Ada County is East (Barber Valley and Micron area) and South (Lake Hazel area) of downtown Boise with a smattering of in-fill projects in the West, NW, and on the Bench.

The number of homes for sale in the Boise market continues to rise, both new and pre-existing.  There were 1496 total homes listed in April (+16.9%) with 783 (+21.4) being new construction. Both days on market and months of inventory continue to be very low despite the increase in supply as there seems to be plenty of demand. While average days on market (46) actually jumped 35.3% from a year ago this is still well below the 60 days that is seen as “normal”. And based on the current rate of sales there is only 1.5 months of inventory available, indicating we are still in a very strong Seller’s Market.

Not surprisingly, prices hit new records again in April although the percentage gain has slowed somewhat but is still in double digits.  The average price per square foot jumped 10% to $176 while the average sales price was up 10.3% to $375K. Both of those numbers are new records.  Interestingly enough, even though new construction is driving volume in the market right now price trends for new construction are underperforming the overall market.  The average price per square foot of $176 was up only 3.5% from a year ago while the average sales price of $400K was actually down slightly (-0.2%) from 2018. This compares to gains of 12.7% and 12.8% respectively for the re-sale market. Also interesting, the average price per square foot of new homes ($176) was actually lower than that for re-sale homes ($177).  I can’t remember ever seeing that happen. It seems like builders are building homes in the market’s sweet spot which seems to be in the mid 300’s. Of course this data does not include any custom homes or build jobs that are not reported to the MLS, but of the listed homes the pricing gap between new and re-sale homes is as low as I can recall.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 989 +3.5 100 1496 +16.9 100 $176 +10.0 $375K +10.3 46 +35.3 1.5
New Construction 348 +54.0 35.2 783 +21.4 52.3 $176 +3.5 $400K -0.2 87 +22.5 2.3

 

Canyon County 456 +5.3 100 603 +21.1 100 $144 +15.2 $272K +16.2 35 -14.6 1.3

 

With interest rates staying steady or even dropping slightly, continued in migration, and an overall healthy local job market expect more of the same in the coming months. The increase in supply has helped some buyers find a new home but rising prices and reduced affordability in relation to wage growth will continue to make it difficult for many buyers to keep from getting priced out of the market. Sellers continue to have most of the leverage in any negotiations.  Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions.  Have a great summer!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

*All reports are published May 2019, based on data available at the end of April 2019, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on May 15, 2019 at 10:55 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2019

More Options For Homebuyers This Spring, Market Continues to Calm

Based on your feedback and a desire to make this report even easier to digest in a short amount of time I am trying a new format this month. Rather than “conversational” text this month’s highlights will be presented in bullet point form. Please feel free to let me know what you think. A spreadsheet and graphs are included as always, but the bullet points are intended to summarize and highlight that information.

• Number of homes for sale 1455 (+18.2% vs Feb 2018)
• 4th straight month of positive year over year inventory, 2nd month in a row of double digit increases
• Closed sales (707) up 1.7% in February
• First monthly increase since October. Sales trend has been generally negative since last July
• Inventory at 2.1 months, 4th straight month over 2.0 after being at or below 2 for well over a year
• Average Days on Market at 52, highest since February 2018
• Average Days on Market are twice what they were in August (26)
• Average price per square foot in Ada County $171, up 11% vs 2018
• Lowest percentage increase in one year
• Average Sales Price $360K, up 6.8%
• Lowest percentage increase in almost 2 years
• New construction inventory up 23.4% (901), Sales up 14.3%
• 37.2% of homes sold in February were new construction
• 61.9% of homes for sale in February were new construction
• In Canyon County sales and inventory trends similar to Ada County but prices continue to surge
• Average $/sf +20.5%, Average sale price +19.2%

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 707 +1.7 100 1455 +18.2 100 $171 +11.0 $360K +6.8 52 -13.3 2.1
New Construction 263 +14.3 37.2 901 +23.4 61.9 $174 +7.4 $403K +4.7 78 -11.4 3.4

 

Canyon County 298 -4.2 100 643 +18.0 100 $141 +20.5 $255K +19.2 44 -21.4 2.2

 

 

Cam Johnson
Realtor®
Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley
1412 W Idaho St.
Suite 120
Boise, ID 83702
208-258-2222 Office
208-283-3664 Cell
208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on March 21, 2019 at 11:48 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2018

Sales Continue to Slide but Prices at Record Level 

The Boise Real Estate Market in December was marked by sharply falling sales and sharply rising prices.  An odd couple to say the least. December’s 14.8% decline was the fourth in the last five months and sales for the most recent quarter combined are off 10.5% versus last year. Also for the 2nd straight month, after literally years of declines, the number of homes for sale was up 5.7% and pending sales, an indicator of future market activity were off 5.1%. Normally this would be bad news for sellers and at some point this will likely be the case, but for now prices seem unaffected by the drop in sales and are at record or near record levels. The average price per square foot was up 17% to $172/sf., a new record.  Meanwhile the average sales price was $363,000 (+16% )second only to the $368,000 recorded in August.  Even as the trend of declining sales has deepened the rate at which prices are rising has accelerated.  In November the average price per square foot and average sales price were up 12.3% and 13.6% respectively.

Conventional wisdom would say that a drop in sales is somehow a result of a drop in demand and that at some point prices should reflect that.  Until recently though it seemed a lack of supply was the primary market force keeping sales in check.  The demand was there but there was nothing to buy.  Now although inventory is still very low by historical standards we are seeing the number of homes for sale rise compared to a year ago with no apparent effects on the upward march of prices…so far.  Current inventory based on the rates of homes selling stands at 2.2 months the highest in almost a year, while the average days on market is 41 a 4.7% decline from last year. As a reminder, 6 months of inventory and 60 days on market are widely seen as indicative of a stable or “neutral” market as far as how much leverage buyers and sellers have.  So we are still in a strong seller’s market despite the sharp drop in sales. Continued in migration, stabilizing interest rates, and a generally strong local economy and job market seem to be enough to keep the party going.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER  2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 750 -14.8 100 1640 +5.7 100 $172 +17.0 $363K +16.0 41 -4.7 2.2
New Construction 256 +11.3 34.1 1019 +14.0 62.1 $175 +10.1 $413K +9.0 57 +1.8 4.0

 

Canyon County 312 -9.0 100 641 -14.5 100 $136 +13.3 $250K +16.3 38 -9.5 2.1

One other area in the latest Boise real estate market numbers worth pointing out is the role of new construction in the current mix of homes for sale and being sold.  While overall sales were down 14.8%, sales of new homes ( not including custom build jobs) were up 11.3% and the number of new homes for sale jumped 14% versus last year. The 256 new homes sold in December was 34.1% of all homes sold while the 1019 new homes for sale represented 62.1% of all homes listed. Without new construction the market would be in serious trouble on the supply side.  For example, sales of pre-owned homes were off 24% in December and 10.5% for the most recent quarter.  This may be helping boost prices as newly constructed homes tend to be priced above the overall market average.  Currently the average price per square foot for new construction is $175 (vs $170 for re-sale homes), while the average sales price for a newly built home is $413,000 (vs. $337,000 for re-sale).

Based on what is happening in other markets around the country and predictions for a nationwide economic slowdown and possible recession in the coming months, I still believe that the current double digit price increases are unsustainable and we will see a gradual flattening of the price curve in the coming months.  Supply for the time being will likely stay pretty tight even with all the new construction occurring because there hasn’t been a strong enough trigger to get existing homeowners to sell.  Many who would like to sell and take a profit are worried that they won’t be able to find a replacement home that meets their needs and their budget.  Until sellers feel like they may be missing out on peak pricing if they don’t sell we will continue to see very few existing homes on the market compared to historical averages.

Please feel free to contact me with you comments and questions. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 15, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2018

Volume Continues to Drop, Prices Slow to React

First, my apologies. Due to technical issues I was not able to distribute a report last month but should be back on track moving forward. Fortunately, you didn’t miss much and the overall Boise real estate market trend remains the same. Sales volume is slowing and is now below where we were a year ago while prices continue to rise, albeit a tad slower than they were during the frenzy of this past spring and summer. There were 887 closed sales in Ada County in November, 6% below November 2017 and approximately 15% below October. The drop from October is largely seasonal but the year over year drop has occurred in 2 of the last 3 months and appears to be the trend as pending sales were also down 3.7% in November. Meanwhile for the first time in literally years, the number of homes for sale was actually up 5.4% compared to last year. There were 1859 homes listed and at the current rate of sales this is 2.1 months of inventory. While still historically very low it is only the second time in over a year we have had 2 or more months of inventory. Average days on market also ticked up to 35, again still historically low and indicative of a strong seller’s market but slightly above levels we saw this summer.

In talking to other agents and brokers there has been a palpable change in the feel of the market. This is also reflected nationally. For months we have been hearing that some of the nation’s previously hot markets such as New York, Seattle, San Francisco, and Portland were experiencing a slowdown. This past week the Wall Street Journal reported that a similar shift is occurring in some smaller markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. Bidding wars have been replaced by price reductions and inventory which was non-existent a few months ago has in some cases doubled. There are also more and more predictions of a recession in 2019. Fox News (sorry) reported last week that half of US CFOs say a recession, largely trade and tariff driven, will occur in 2019. While this will likely have some effect on housing, in markets like Boise the impact may be somewhat muted by continued in-migration due to quality of life and relative affordability. For more information on the national picture please check out Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s 2019 Economic Forecast.

Meanwhile prices in the Boise real estate market continue to go up in double digits. The average price per square foot was $167 in November, up 12.1% versus 2017, but down 2.3% from October. The average sales price was $350K (+13.6%) but this was down about 2% from October. There is some normal seasonal fluctuation in prices so the numbers I would key in on are the year vs year ones. It is also typical for prices to lag behind a shift in volume. In the case of the last big recession, the market shift occurred in 2006 but prices didn’t peak until summer 2007. While in the current scenario prices may not fall much, if at all, the rate of increase has already dropped from the 15-18% per year that we saw this summer to the 12-13% we are seeing now. I still feel anything over 10% is not really sustainable given current wage growth and inflation so if we continue to slow down it may be a good thing for the overall health of the market.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2018
*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 887 -6.0 100 1859 +5.4 100 $167 +12.1 $350K +13.6 35 -14.6 2.1

New Construction 241 +15.9 27.2 1010 +14.8 54.3 $172 +5.5 $401K +7.2 50 -24.2 4.2

Canyon County 382 +0.5 100 718 -9.9 100 $139 +20.9 $248K +18.7 29 -32.6 1.9

There are likely many reasons for the market shift that has begun in Boise. The usual culprits are definitely in play here: rising interest rates, prices forcing some buyers out of the market, declining consumer confidence in the national economy. But in our market unemployment is low, wage growth is strong and in-migration continues so the overall effects may be fairly mild compared to some more volatile markets. Still, we are near what I would consider the peak of the current pricing cycle so Buyers may decide to wait for prices to possibly drop while Sellers who have been sitting out may jump in to cash out at the peak. Both those will serve to accelerate the trend—fewer buyers and more inventory. Quite the opposite of what the market has brought the last few years.

Happy Holidays to you all. Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions.

 

Cam Johnson
Realtor®
Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley
1412 W Idaho St.
Suite 120
Boise, ID 83702
208-258-2222 Office
208-283-3664 Cell
208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on December 20, 2018 at 1:51 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2018

New Construction Buoys Sales, Prices Still Sizzling

July was another scorcher in the Boise Real Estate Market despite the lack of pre-existing homes on the market. Supply woes continue to both keep sales from rising to meet demand and to keep prices soaring for those homes that do hit the market.  New construction is helping stabilize the market but we remain in an epic seller’s market.  Total homes sales in Ada County (1191) were up 3.5% from a year ago but sales of existing homes (906) dropped 1.6%.  Lack of inventory continues to be the issue.  While overall inventory of homes for sale dropped 24.4%, existing home inventory dropped 32.5%. Days on market numbers paint a similar picture—overall we are at 29 average days on market but for existing homes that number drops to 19 days. Either number would be considered historically low. Based on the current rate of sales we have 1.3 months of overall inventory but only 1.0 months for already built homes. The numbers in Canyon County are similar but even more extreme in some cases: overall inventory there is off 37.8% despite a 10% increase in sales.

As a result, prices continue their march upward throughout the Treasure Valley.  The average sales price in July was essentially unchanged from June but was up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ticked up to $167 a 13.6% annual gain.  This is making it tougher and tougher for buyers, especially first time and/or Millennials to afford a suitable place to live.  We all have stories to tell about this but some of you may appreciate a recent story from NPR that focused on the problem by featuring Boise. Also, for more details on the market statewide please see the latest Gardner Report from Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. Matthew will be coming to Boise in October to give a  detailed report on the Boise economic and real estate outlook.  More details about this event to come.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1191 +3.5 100 1562 -24.4 100 $167 +13.6 $359K +17.3 29 -6.5 1.3
New Construction 285 +23.9 23.9 682 -10.5 43.7 $172 +8.9 $404K +11.0 62 -17.3 2.4

 

Canyon County 494 +10.0 100 564 -37.8 100 $131 +13.9 $252K +19.4 28 -15.2 1.1

 

So in the short term things remain rosy for sellers and really tough for buyers, but as I have mentioned previously there is some consensus building among the experts that a change is coming.  The Wall Street Journal recently featured a story on the front page with the headline “Home Sales Extend Slump Despite Economic Strength”.  Nationally, the report says, home sales have dropped on an annual basis in five of the first 6 months of the year with high prices, low inventory, and rising interest rates being to blame. The article also cites examples of the market slowing already in nearby cities such as Portland and Seattle due to buyers becoming more cautious especially at the high end of the market.  The article isn’t all doom and gloom though, saying at least for now demand isn’t the issue in most markets, supply is.  Bloomberg News took a different approach—a shovel to the face.  Their recent story was titled: The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years. Rising interest rates and high prices are stretching buyers to where they just give up. The famous economist Robert Shiller is quoted in the story as saying, “This could be the very beginning of a turning point”. The story goes on to cite rising inventories in nearby cities: San Jose +12%, Seattle +24%, and Portland +32%.  It still too soon to say what and when a change will come to Boise but if history is a guide we tend to lag 6-12 months behind our larger neighbors so I am guessing we will see some sort of a shift sooner than later.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments and stay cool!!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on August 16, 2018 at 11:30 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,