Boise Real Estate Market Report for October 2019

Ada County on Simmer While Canyon County Heats Up 

The Boise real estate market in October for the most part stayed true to recent trends—sales flat to slightly down while prices continue to rise.  In Ada County closed sales were off 2.1% from October 2018 although they were up 9.2% from September 2019. New construction is bucking that trend and sales were up 8.6% to 317 last month. The overall average days on market did take a jump to 41 days (+32.3%) but the months of available inventory remains critically low at 1.8. Prices meanwhile continue to go up at near a double digit pace.  The average price per square foot in October was $184, up 8.2% and a new record, while the average sold price jumped 9.9% to $390K.

A lot has been said about a looming affordability crisis in the Boise real estate market, and one symptom of that is evident in comparing Ada and Canyon County.  Buyers seeking more affordable options seem to be finding them in Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton. While sales in relatively more expensive Ada County are flat to down, in Canyon County, where the average price of a home is over $100K lower, sales are showing a moderate gain– up 3.7%.  And prices in Canyon County are skyrocketing which may eventually narrow the gap. The average price per square foot in Canyon County was $153 in October (also a new record) and was 15.9% higher than last year.  Similarly, the average sold price jumped 18.8% to $285K.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1056 -2.1 100 1865 -1.7 100 $184 +8.2 $390K +9.9 41 +32.3 1.8
New Construction 317 +8.6 30.0 981 +4.5 52.6 $190 +6.7 $433K +5.1 67 +45.7 3.1

 

Canyon County 452 +3.7 100 898 +16.9 100 $153 +15.9 $285K +18.8 34 +21.4 2.0

 

Expect the current trends to continue in the short term with the usual seasonal drop off that occurs each winter.  With interest rates still low, a generally strong economy, and a steady supply of people moving to Idaho we continue to be able to kick the affordability can down the road.  At some point it may reach somewhat of a “breaking point” and the market may need to correct itself but for now that doesn’t seem to be happening.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

Posted on November 8, 2019 at 12:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2019

Homes Sales Up Slightly in September But There’s A Catch… 

The number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market was up slightly in September versus a year ago, seemingly bucking the recent trend of declining sales.  There were 967 closed sales in Ada County (+0.9% vs 2018) but looking back also reveals that September 2018 was a particularly slow month bracketed by relatively strong sales in both August and October.  Looking at the results on a quarterly basis provides a more realistic view of the market in this case and sales for the most recent 3 months are off 2.5% year to year.  Also telling is the fact that sales from August to September of this year dropped 14.5%, although much of that can be attributed to the normal seasonal drop off in sales heading into fall.  Inventory continues to be near historic lows at 1.9 months while the average days on market is up 5.9% to 36, also still near historic lows.

Several people have asked why I pay so much attention to sales trends when all they really care about are price trends.  “Is my house going up in value or going down?”  “As a buyer am I going to pay less if I buy now or wait?” are the most common questions I hear.  Well, typically prices are influenced by supply and demand and market trends in those areas generally are good predictors of future pricing trends.  Prices tend to lag somewhat in real estate, so a drop in sales (demand) and/or an increase in inventory (supply) may not be reflected in sales prices for several months.  For example,  Boise real estate has been slowing volume wise for most of this year but prices continue to rise much faster than is sustainable. The rate has dropped off somewhat from the scorching 15%+ annual increases we saw in 2016-18 but we are still flirting with double digit increases now even as volume is flat to down.  In September the average price per square foot in the Boise market was $180, up 7.8% and tied for the record high set last month.  The average sale price meanwhile was up 13.2% to $395,000 or $46,000 higher than one year ago. The obvious conclusion here is that demand is not the problem, the supply of available homes, especially “affordable” ones, continues to be the biggest barrier to market sales growth.  The average list price of homes for sale in the Boise real estate market is currently $504,000– not affordable for most buyers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 967 +0.9 100 1858 -4.4 100 $180 +7.8 $395K +13.2 36 +5.9 1.9
New Construction 278 +9.9 28.7 915 +3.9 49.2 $186 +7.5 $423K +6.8 61 -1.6 3.3

 

Canyon County 471 +20.8 100 884 +17.4 100 $147 +7.3 $282K +11.0 30 +20.0 1.9

 

Barring any unexpected macro-economic or political changes I believe we can expect more of the same in the Boise real estate market in the near future.  Continued in-migration (not just from California!), a relatively strong economy, and very low interest rates will continue to drive the demand side while our struggles with adequate supply of affordable options for buyers will also likely continue. New construction continues to outperform the market as a whole but don’t necessarily help the affordability issue as the price points on newly built homes are typical higher than for resale.  Please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions.

Mark your calendars!

Windermere is fortunate to be able to bring our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise for the 3rd year in a row to give a presentation on the Idaho Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020.  He will be speaking at JUMP! On January 30th.  I will have a limited number of tickets for those that contact me. Corporate sponsorships are also available for reserving tables. In the past this has been a great event! Please let me know if you are interested in attending. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on October 9, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,