Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2020

The End Of The New “Normal” For Boise Real Estate?

It’s no secret that the Boise real estate market has been on somewhat of a roller coaster the last 15+ years. Since the “Liar Loan” fueled peak in 2006-7 and the collapse in 2008-10 the market has risen steadily and has been firmly in record territory for the last couple years. Rising prices and low inventory have been happening for so long in our market that to many it has become the new “normal”. Traditionally however, a “normal” or stable market has meant price increases were keeping pace with inflation and wage growth and were thus “sustainable”, and inventory  was around 6 months.  A neutral market where neither buyers or sellers had undue leverage in negotiating a sale.  Unless you have been in the business for over 20 years you have never really seen “normal”.  Based on recent events related to the COVID-19 virus it is likely that even the new “normal” won’t last.  While it is too soon to accurately predict how drastic or long lasting the effects on real estate will be, no one is denying that change is coming.  Recently Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provided an updated outlook on the 2020 housing market.  He feels the impact will be significant but relatively short lived as there is nothing systemically wrong with the housing market. Both buyers and sellers may pause due to uncertainty and fear but once the outbreak has largely peaked things will quickly get back on track as far as real estate goes. I guess it really will depend to a large degree on the length and severity of the outbreak. That prognosis is changing daily with one report earlier today indicating the federal government is now planning for an 18 month pandemic. If this lasts 18 months I would suspect the market impacts to be pretty severe as opposes to a 3-6 month disruption.

In the meantime, February’s numbers, prior to Coronavirus becoming an issue in the US,  saw a continuation of the new normal—steeply rising prices and very low inventory.  Overall home sales rose 3.6% in February versus 2019 with 757 homes sold.  New construction continued to lead the way with a 14.3% increase.  Lack of inventory continued to be the prime constraint on the number of homes sold.  There were 1201 homes for sale in February (-17.3%) which based on the current rate of sales is 1.6 months of inventory.  A very strong seller’s market.

Prices continue to reflect the tight supply and strong demand.  While inventory was down 17.3% pending sales were up 24.2% meaning that assuming those sales close we should have a strong March and upward pressure on prices would continue. The average sale price in Ada County was $406K up 13.4% year over year while the average price per square foot was $189, up 10.5%.  Both of these numbers are at or very near all time records, as they have been for over a year.   The Canyon County market showed similar trends.  The average sale price ($291K) was up 14.1% while the average price per square foot ($154) rose 8.5%.  Expect inventory of existing homes throughout the Valley to remain very low, although there is some uncertainty as far as how much COVID-19 will affect the demand side.  While closings of homes that went pending before the outbreak hit may make for a strong March in terms of overall sales all bets are off after that. I will be watching the numbers closely in the coming months to see how this all unfolds.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 757 +3.6 100 1201 -17.3 100 $189 +10.5 $406K +13.4 56 -1.8 1.6
New Construction 312 +14.3 41.2 790 -12.3 65.8 $188 +8.0 $425K +5.7 88 -4.3 2.5

 

Canyon County 371 +18.9 100 609 -5.3 100 $154 +8.5 $291K +14.1 53 +23.3 1.6

I encourage all of us to stay calm, stay safe, and stay healthy in these unprecedented times.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any comments or questions about the information in this report. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on March 18, 2020 at 1:51 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2020

Boise Real Estate Volume and Prices Both Sizzle in January 

You probably have already seen the headlines in the local media about home prices reaching a new record high in January. While it makes for good headlines and is no doubt true, is it really news? Not if you have been following the market either with or without the help of this report.  Our market bottomed out from the Great Recession approximately 9 years ago and since the 2nd quarter of 2011 has seen steadily climbing prices and strong volume.  While I don’t recall the exact month where we not only eclipsed the high price points from the previous boom but also set a new record, suffice it to say it was years ago—2017 or 2018.  Since then the market has continued to grow and prices have continued to go up steadily, meaning that with very few exceptions we reach a new record high for prices every month. Noteworthy but hardly breaking news.  The real headlines will come when we see a month when prices actually drop.  Well, if January is any indication, we may be waiting awhile for that to happen.

The average sold price for Boise real estate in January was $405,000 a 12.2% increase from 2019 and a new record, don’t you know! Meanwhile the average price per square foot rose 7.5% to $186 (actually not a record—it was $191 in December). And volume, which in most of 2019 seem to be constrained by a dearth of available existing homes for sale, surged 25.4% ahead of last January with 780 homes sold.  New construction led the charge with 308 homes sold (+41.3%) and represented 39.5% of all homes sold and 66.7% of all homes for sale. Inventory continues to be extremely low at 1.6 months although the average days on market (58) is actually 16% higher than last January. The trends in Canyon County are fairly similar.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2020

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 780 +25.4 100 1221 -18.3 100 $186 +7.5 $406K +12.2 58 +16.0 1.6
New Construction 308 +41.3 39.5 815 -14.7 66.7 $193 +7.8 $444K +7.5 84 +25.4 2.6

 

Canyon County 337 +17.8 100 695 +11.7 100 $152 +10.9 $290K +13.3 48 +2.0 2.1

On January 30 Windermere was honored to host our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, who in what has become an annual event,  gave an excellent presentation on the Economic and Housing Outlook for 2020 both for the nation and the local market.  While he had lots of positive things to say about our local economy and housing market he also cautioned that affordability is becoming a real problem.  Those of you who follow this report know that I have expressed my concerns about affordability for well over a year and Matthew’s data serves to emphasize this issue.  His slides are very informative and I am happy to share them in PDF form with anyone who is interested.  The file is rather large so I am not including it here since many email servers limit the size allowed, but if you would like to see his presentation slides please contact me and I will arrange to get them to you.  Another look at affordability from the 30,000 foot level and not just related to housing can be found in this recent article in the Atlantic.  It argues that in what is hailed by some as the best US Economy in decades American families continue to be bled dry and it is only the corporations and the super wealthy that are truly benefitting.  So much for trickle down economics!

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on February 18, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2019

Strong December Caps Off A Remarkable 2019 For Boise Real Estate 

The Boise real estate market was in overdrive in December finishing the year with strong sales volume growth and new record high prices. There were 902 total closed sales in Ada County up 17% from 2018, while sales of new construction surged 30% and represented 37.9% of all closings. Inventory, which had been stabilizing somewhat, was down 14.5% and the months of available inventory dropped to a razor thin 1.6 months.  Oddly and somewhat inexplicably, the average days on market jumped up to 52 days a 40.5% increase from a year ago.  And in Canyon County, inventory was actually up 21.4% but the months of available inventory remains very low at 1.9 months.

Prices rose by double digits across the board for the 2nd month in a row reversing what had been a gradual softening in price increases for the majority of 2019.  In December the average price per square foot in the Boise real estate market was $191 (+11.0%), a new record high, while the average sales price also reached a new record of $404K, up 11.6%. New construction recorded similar price increases as did the Canyon County market.

Looking at year end numbers for volume and inventory it is interesting to see that overall volume in Ada County was actually down slightly for the year (-0.3%). If you back out new construction, which showed a solid increase of 14.6%, the number of pre-existing homes sold in the Boise market in 2019 dropped 6.9%. Canyon County fared better with overall sales up 5.2% while new construction was up almost 40% (+39.4).  Current homeowners continue to be stingy about listing even as the prospect of a good return due to higher prices provides temptation.  However, many have come to the realization that their options for finding a replacement home they can afford are more and more limited so there is little incentive to sell.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2019 AND 2018 Vs 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 902 +17.0 100 1403 -14.5 100 $191 +11.0 $404K +11.6 52 +40.5 1.6
New Construction 342 +30.0 37.9 915 -10.2 65.2 $198 +13.1 $450K +9.0 81 +65.3 2.7

 

Canyon County 404 +26.6 100 778 +21.4 100 $150 +10.3 $279K +11.2 46 +15.0 1.9

 

 

Total Homes Sold Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 12,002 N/A 5,050 N/A
2019 11,968 -0.3 5,315 +5.2

 

New Construction Sold Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 3,236 N/A 1,015 N/A
2019 3,744 +14.6 1,416 +39.4

 

 

Average Months of Inventory Ada % Change Canyon % Change
2018 1.6 N/A 1.5 N/A
2019 1.7 +6.3 1.7 +13.3

 

For those interested in what the future holds both for the Boise real estate market and the Idaho economy in general I invite you to join Windermere in welcoming our chief economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise on Thursday January 30 at 10:00am at JUMP for Matthew Gardner’s 2020 Idaho Economic & Housing Forecast. Please follow the link for more information and to reserve a space.  There is no cost but we would appreciate you registering on the EventBrite site so we can estimate our expected attendance.  If you aren’t able to register please come anyway.  Although this event has been very well attended in the past, I am sure we can accommodate all that are interested. Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and here’s to a thriving 2020 for all of us! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on January 15, 2020 at 1:24 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2019

Volume Up Slightly While Prices Surge By Double Digits 

Overall the number of closed sales was up 1.3% in November in the Boise real estate market with new construction leading the way. Of the 935 closed sales 304 (32.5%) were new construction.   Sales of new homes rose 19.2% for the month while sales of previously owned homes dropped by 5.5%.  This continues to be a function of lack of available inventory not lack of demand.  While inventories were starting to creep up slightly in the last few months, in November the number of homes for sale (1642) was down 11.7% from a year ago and also down about 12% from October. Fall and winter tend to be much slower than the summer months but the drop in numbers year over year indicates we definitely are not out of the woods yet as far as low inventories go. The average days on market of 42, while 20% higher than last November still is very low for this time of year and we are still in the “Strong Seller’s Market” range as far as inventory goes with only 1.8 months available based on the current rate of sales.

Prices have been rising since 2011 but in recent months the rate of increase had dropped into the mid to high single digits.  Not so in November when the average price per square foot rose 11.4% to $186 and the average sales price rose 15.7% to $404,000.  Both of those are, not surprisingly, new record highs.  The double whammy of low inventory and rapidly rising prices continues to put the pinch on potential buyers more and more of whom are either being priced out or are frustrated to the point of giving up and seeking alternative housing.  The means renting for many and moving in with family for some.  Were it not for the fact that interest rates continue to hover under 4% this “crisis” would be even more acute.  That time may come sooner than we think, although Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner believes only modest increases in interest rates are on the horizon.  He recently published his Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020 in the form of a short video.  It is worth a listen and is packed with good information, plus his accent is so cute! Matthew is coming to Boise on January 30 at 10:00 am for a presentation at JUMP on the Idaho economy and real estate market.  In the past these have been very informative and well attended.  If you are interested in going please let me know.  Admission is free but seating is limited and a ticket is required.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 935 +1.3 100 1642 -11.7 100 $186 +11.4 $404K +15.8 42 +20.0 1.8
New Construction 304 +19.2 32.5 922 -8.7 56.2 $194 +12.1 $455K +13.5 62 +29.2 3.0

 

Canyon County 380 -5.2 100 860 +19.8 100 $153 +10.9 $284K +15.0 35 +20.7 2.3

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments or if you know someone who would like to receive this report once a month.  Special thanks to those that have referred friends and family this year.  Referrals are the highest compliment I can receive and I really appreciate them! Best wishes for the Holidays and for a thriving 2020! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com

 

*All reports are published December 2019, based on data available at the end of November 2019, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Posted on December 14, 2019 at 1:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for October 2019

Ada County on Simmer While Canyon County Heats Up 

The Boise real estate market in October for the most part stayed true to recent trends—sales flat to slightly down while prices continue to rise.  In Ada County closed sales were off 2.1% from October 2018 although they were up 9.2% from September 2019. New construction is bucking that trend and sales were up 8.6% to 317 last month. The overall average days on market did take a jump to 41 days (+32.3%) but the months of available inventory remains critically low at 1.8. Prices meanwhile continue to go up at near a double digit pace.  The average price per square foot in October was $184, up 8.2% and a new record, while the average sold price jumped 9.9% to $390K.

A lot has been said about a looming affordability crisis in the Boise real estate market, and one symptom of that is evident in comparing Ada and Canyon County.  Buyers seeking more affordable options seem to be finding them in Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton. While sales in relatively more expensive Ada County are flat to down, in Canyon County, where the average price of a home is over $100K lower, sales are showing a moderate gain– up 3.7%.  And prices in Canyon County are skyrocketing which may eventually narrow the gap. The average price per square foot in Canyon County was $153 in October (also a new record) and was 15.9% higher than last year.  Similarly, the average sold price jumped 18.8% to $285K.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1056 -2.1 100 1865 -1.7 100 $184 +8.2 $390K +9.9 41 +32.3 1.8
New Construction 317 +8.6 30.0 981 +4.5 52.6 $190 +6.7 $433K +5.1 67 +45.7 3.1

 

Canyon County 452 +3.7 100 898 +16.9 100 $153 +15.9 $285K +18.8 34 +21.4 2.0

 

Expect the current trends to continue in the short term with the usual seasonal drop off that occurs each winter.  With interest rates still low, a generally strong economy, and a steady supply of people moving to Idaho we continue to be able to kick the affordability can down the road.  At some point it may reach somewhat of a “breaking point” and the market may need to correct itself but for now that doesn’t seem to be happening.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

http://IdahoWindermere.com


Posted on November 8, 2019 at 12:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for September 2019

Homes Sales Up Slightly in September But There’s A Catch… 

The number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market was up slightly in September versus a year ago, seemingly bucking the recent trend of declining sales.  There were 967 closed sales in Ada County (+0.9% vs 2018) but looking back also reveals that September 2018 was a particularly slow month bracketed by relatively strong sales in both August and October.  Looking at the results on a quarterly basis provides a more realistic view of the market in this case and sales for the most recent 3 months are off 2.5% year to year.  Also telling is the fact that sales from August to September of this year dropped 14.5%, although much of that can be attributed to the normal seasonal drop off in sales heading into fall.  Inventory continues to be near historic lows at 1.9 months while the average days on market is up 5.9% to 36, also still near historic lows.

Several people have asked why I pay so much attention to sales trends when all they really care about are price trends.  “Is my house going up in value or going down?”  “As a buyer am I going to pay less if I buy now or wait?” are the most common questions I hear.  Well, typically prices are influenced by supply and demand and market trends in those areas generally are good predictors of future pricing trends.  Prices tend to lag somewhat in real estate, so a drop in sales (demand) and/or an increase in inventory (supply) may not be reflected in sales prices for several months.  For example,  Boise real estate has been slowing volume wise for most of this year but prices continue to rise much faster than is sustainable. The rate has dropped off somewhat from the scorching 15%+ annual increases we saw in 2016-18 but we are still flirting with double digit increases now even as volume is flat to down.  In September the average price per square foot in the Boise market was $180, up 7.8% and tied for the record high set last month.  The average sale price meanwhile was up 13.2% to $395,000 or $46,000 higher than one year ago. The obvious conclusion here is that demand is not the problem, the supply of available homes, especially “affordable” ones, continues to be the biggest barrier to market sales growth.  The average list price of homes for sale in the Boise real estate market is currently $504,000– not affordable for most buyers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR SEPTEMBER 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 967 +0.9 100 1858 -4.4 100 $180 +7.8 $395K +13.2 36 +5.9 1.9
New Construction 278 +9.9 28.7 915 +3.9 49.2 $186 +7.5 $423K +6.8 61 -1.6 3.3

 

Canyon County 471 +20.8 100 884 +17.4 100 $147 +7.3 $282K +11.0 30 +20.0 1.9

 

Barring any unexpected macro-economic or political changes I believe we can expect more of the same in the Boise real estate market in the near future.  Continued in-migration (not just from California!), a relatively strong economy, and very low interest rates will continue to drive the demand side while our struggles with adequate supply of affordable options for buyers will also likely continue. New construction continues to outperform the market as a whole but don’t necessarily help the affordability issue as the price points on newly built homes are typical higher than for resale.  Please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions.

Mark your calendars!

Windermere is fortunate to be able to bring our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, to Boise for the 3rd year in a row to give a presentation on the Idaho Economic and Real Estate Outlook for 2020.  He will be speaking at JUMP! On January 30th.  I will have a limited number of tickets for those that contact me. Corporate sponsorships are also available for reserving tables. In the past this has been a great event! Please let me know if you are interested in attending. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on October 9, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for August 2019

Sales Slowdown Continues in August

The number of homes sold in Ada County dropped 10% in August versus a year ago to 1113 homes, continuing a trend that has been with us for almost a full year now. Year to date sales are off 2.5% and while supply continues to increase (+2.9% in August) I still believe the primary constraint on market volume is lack of affordable supply not lack of demand.  And while the average days on market was up 30.8% from a year ago it is still at only 34 days, just over half of the 60 days that is considered indicative of a stable market. At the current rate of sales there is only 1.6 months of available inventory, well into “Strong Seller’s Market” territory.

The key words in the last paragraph were “affordable supply”, because even as unit sales have dropped prices continue to increase steadily at a rate significantly higher than overall inflation.  Unfortunately prices are also still rising faster than average wage growth in our market and an “affordability crisis” is looming (or already here). The average price per square foot in August was $180, up 7.1%, while the average sales price jumped to a new record of $398K (+8.2%). For more and more buyers, especially first timers and/or Millennials, buying a home in Ada County is out of reach.  The net effect of this continues to be muted by the influx of cash rich out of state Buyers but as the markets where those Buyers tend to come from slow down, as they are doing,  we may see a further drop off in sales, that is more demand driven. As pointed out in one of my recent reports, the “sweet spot” for the market has moved up to around $350K.  That is already too high for many buyers who already live here.  With real estate prices rising 8-10% per year and wages only going up 3-4% there is bound to be fewer qualified buyers as time goes on.  Low interest rates have helped the situation but we can’t count on them to stay low forever, even though they have done so far longer than most experts predictions.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1113 -10.0 100 1823 +2.9 100 $180 +7.1 $398K +8.2 34 +30.8 1.6
New Construction 320 +3.9 28.8 820 +2.6 45.0 $186 +6.3 $426K +1.9 57 +21.3 2.6

 

Canyon County 541 +5.7 100 764 +20.5 100 $152 +16.0 $285K +16.8 32 +23.1 1.4

 

One interesting note that would tend to support the theory that lack of affordability may be starting to have an adverse effect on sales in Ada County, is that in Canyon County, where prices are significantly lower, sales were up 5.7% ( as opposed to -10.0% in Ada County).  And not only were unit sales up but prices were way up.  The average price per square foot  ($152) was up 16.0% while the average sales price ($285K) was up 16.8%.  Compare those to Ada County where the numbers were 7.1% and 8.2% respectively, about half the rate in Canyon County.  Of course if prices keep going up at that rate it won’t be long before Canyon County has it’s own affordability crisis.

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on September 18, 2019 at 1:55 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2019

Volume Down But Prices Keep Rising 

It starting to sound all too familiar: In July closed sales in the Boise Real Estate Market were down but prices keep rising.  There were 1203 closed sales in Ada County last month a modest 1% drop from a year ago but as in recent months the issue seems to be a lack of inventory not a lack of demand.  Even though there were over 15% more homes available for sale, based on the current rate of sales this represents only 1.5 months of inventory. Homes that do come on the market are still selling quickly—the average days on market is 30, indicative of a strong Seller’s market.

Prices continue to reflect the strong demand even though actual unit volume has been flat or down for months.  The average price per square foot was $182 in July, up 9% from 2018 and a new record high.  Meanwhile the average sold price jumped 7% to $384K but was actually down from June’s record high of $395K.  I’m guessing a few high dollar sales may have skewed the data in June.  The good news is that while prices are still showing solid increases the percentage has dropped into the single digit range, which I believe is more “sustainable” than the 15-18% increases we have seen as recently as a year ago.  By “sustainable” I mean that when wage growth and overall inflation are considered the current real estate price increases don’t suggest we are headed for a bubble or that large chunks of potential buyers will get priced out of the market in the near future especially as long as interest rates stay low.  30 year fixed rates under 4% for conventional loans are the norm right now.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1203 -1.0 100 1798 +15.1 100 $182 +9.0 $384K +7.0 30 +3.4 1.5
New Construction 300 +3.4 24.9 872 +27.9 48.5 $183 +6.4 $418K +3.5 62 -1.6 2.9

 

Canyon County 515 +2.0 100 715 +26.8 100 $149 +13.7 $277K +10.4 31 +10.7 1.4

 

For the short term I believe we can expect more of the same as the combination of low interest rates, a relatively strong local economy, and continued in-migration from generally higher priced markets will continue to drive demand and affordability, though under pressure from prices that have been rising steadily for over 7 years, is still good compared to other large metro areas in the West. For a look beyond Ada County at statewide trends please review the latest Gardner Report for Idaho in Quarter 2 as presented by Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Please feel free to share your questions and comments.  Thanks for reading! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com

 


Posted on August 7, 2019 at 3:19 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2019

Sales Drop While Prices Hit Another New Record High 

The Boise Real Estate Market continues it’s unusual combination of flat to dropping sales volume with relentlessly rising prices. While the number of homes sold in Ada County in June (1159) was off 10% from a year ago and the average days on market is creeping up, inventory overall remains very tight and prices hit yet another new record high. June’s drop in sales is especially significant in that June is typically one of the busiest if no the busiest month of the year. This year not only were sales below last year but they dropped by 100 (7.9%) from May 2019.  The average days on market meanwhile was 32 in June, indicative of a continued very strong seller’s market but up 14.3% from a year ago.  At the current rates of sales there is 1.6 months of inventory.  This is also very low (6 being typical of a stable market) but, remarkably, is 33% higher than last June.

Prices keep going up regardless of the drop in sales.  The average price per square foot hit $181, a new record, and a 9% increase from 2018, while the average sold price also stayed in record territory jumping 9.4% to $395K.  Since January 1 the average price of a home in Ada County has risen by more than $30,000 (9.1%).   So while sales are down it is not apparently due to lack of demand but relative lack of supply particularly at the lower price points.  As I pointed out last month most of the drop in sales is coming in the under $300K sector of the market.  Sales of homes from $0-299K were off 32.3% in June while sales of homes from $500-699K were up 43.6%.  Sales in the segment in the middle, homes from $300-499K were basically flat—up +0.4%.  Another statistic of note in June was that sales of new construction also dropped 11.8%.  This is in marked contrast to recent months where I have reported that new construction seemed to be keeping the broader market afloat.  This was the first significant drop off in quite some time so it remains to be seen if it was a quirk or the beginning of a new trend that could have market wide implications.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1159 -10.0 100 1830 +17.2 100 $181 +9.0 $395K +9.4 32 +14.3 1.6
New Construction 292 -11.8 25.2 869 +27.8 47.5 $184 +7.6 $431K +6.4 69 +13.1 3.0

 

Canyon County 517 +1.4 100 746 +23.5 100 $148 +14.7 $274K +12.3 33 +43.5 1.4

 

Barring any major unexpected macro-economic or geo-political event, expect more of the same at least through the summer.  Boise strong job market, attractive quality of life, and low interest rates should keep the fire burning for the time being.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and stay cool out there. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on July 16, 2019 at 2:59 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2019

Prices Hit New Record High…Again

Boise Real Estate prices hit another record high in May—not surprising given continued strong demand and low supply.  The average sales price in Ada County was $386,000 up 11.9% while the median sales price was $340,000 up 13.3%.  The average price per square foot also reached a new high of $179 (+9.1%).  While closed sales were down 5% for the month, this is not due to lack of demand, but lack of affordable inventory.  The number of homes for sale (1630) is actually up sharply versus 2018, +23.2%, but the price point of those homes for sales continues to skew higher and higher putting more and more buyers out of reach in Ada County. New construction continues to buck the overall sales trend and sales (376) were up 9.9% versus a year ago.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2019

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1216 -5.0 100 1630 +23.2 100 $179 +9.1 $386K +11.9 35 0.0 1.3
New Construction 376 +9.9 30.9 806 +31.9 49.4 $181 +6.5 $414K +8.4 70 -11.4 2.1

 

Canyon County 515 -1.7 100 669 +24.1 100 $147 +16.7 $267K +16.6 40 +33.3 1.3

 

Taking a closer look at the numbers by price range illustrates that there are way fewer homes available and selling in the most affordable segments and the “sweet spot” for the market continues to move higher to around $350K. As the chart below indicates homes priced below $300,000 are becoming a rare commodity but this is still the price range that a majority of buyers, especially first time buyers, fall into.  Meanwhile sales in the higher price categories are booming.

Ada County Residential Real Estate Sales By Price Range May 2019

Price # Sold Sold % Change # For Sale For Sale % Change Day On Market DOM % Change Months Inventory
0-199K 24 -62.5 7 -75.0 22 +46.7 0.3
200-299K 382 -33.1 235 -19.0 21 -8.7 0.6
300-399K 395 +21.2 512 +31.3 39 +2.6 1.3
400-499K 225 +31.6 323 +26.2 48 -7.7 1.4
500-599K 96 +35.2 210 +94.4 40 +5.3 2.2
600-799K 65 +20.4 171 +59.8 38 -50.0 2.6
800K+ 29 +26.1 172 +19.4 59 -49.1 5.9

 

As you can see by the days on market and month’s of inventory columns, anything under $300K doesn’t last for much more than the blink of an eye.  It is also interesting to note that even in the highest price category that I broke out, 800K+, there is less than 6 months of inventory, the level that has traditionally been the benchmark of a “balanced” market.  Interest rates continue to be very low so this is allowing buyers some additional wiggle room as far as qualifying for a home but as quickly as prices are rising it is likely that this will be less and less of a factor.  A substantial rise in interest rates would almost certainly force a significant number of buyers to the sidelines and could be the trigger of a real slow down in demand.  Of course repeated predictions of interest rates of 6% or higher have fortunately not panned out as of yet but at some point we will be facing that reality due to the cyclical nature of real estate.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on June 20, 2019 at 1:45 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,