Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2018

Low Inventory Pinches Off Sales Growth in June 

With a few minor exceptions closed sales in the Boise real estate market have continued to grow despite record low inventories but in June sales (1247) were off 4.2% from 2017 and also down slightly from May 2018.  This drop was primarily a function of lack of available choices for buyers as demand remains very strong.  The number of homes for sale at 1561 was down 21.2% from a year ago.  Inventory remains extremely tight with the average days on market dropping to 28, the lowest I have ever seen while the months of available inventory edged up slightly from May’s record low 1.0 months to 1.3 months.  By any typical method of evaluation this is an absurdly tight market for buyers right now.   While I do predict that rising prices will eventually erode the typical buyer’s purchase power to the point that the market slows down, June’s drop in sales was not driven by drop in demand but by lack of options for buyers in the market.

Needless to say given this scenario, prices continue to charge forward further into record territory.  The average price per square foot was $166 up 13.7 from a year ago while the average sales price jumped nearly $20K in one month to $363,000. Percentage wise we were up 17.1% compared to June 2017. I believe these types of numbers are unsustainable and will eventually lead to the next market slowdown probably within the next 12-18 months. As more buyers find themselves priced out of the market demand will depend more and more on the cash rich typically out of state buyer.  While for now there seems to be an almost endless supply of these that will change especially if markets on the west coast slow down as in some cases they have already started to do. Sellers trying to time the peak of this cycle should be on notice that the time is approaching and will be behind us by the time most people are aware it even occurred.  Anecdotally some of my colleagues have already commented that they seem to see an uptick in price reductions and back on market listings (likely due to appraisal issues).  While the statistics don’t bear that out currently, often the signals of a market shift are more a feeling than the numbers will reveal for a period of time.  Anyone out there getting a feeling change is in the air?  I’m personally not there but…

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1247 -4.2 100 1561 -21.2 100 $166 +13.7 $363K +17.1 28 -20.0 1.3
New Construction 314 +1.6 25.2 680 -5.9 43.4 $172 +8.2 $411K +12.3 63 -17.1 2.2

 

Canyon County 499 -1.0 100 604 -26.5 100 $129 +13.2 $245K +17.2 23 -25.8 1.2

 

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on July 18, 2018 at 9:22 am
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2018

May Was Another Hot Month For Boise Real Estate

It’s starting to sound like a broken record when I report that the Boise real estate market has broken another record. But it just keeps happening. May saw record high prices yet again.  The average price per square foot jumped to $164, up $3 from April and up $21 (14.7%)  from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price also set a record at $345,000.  This is up $4,000 from April and $47,000 (+15.8%) for the year. Sellers are not only in the driver’s seat, they are in the fast lane.

The cause of these record breaking prices is no secret and has been the case for many months—extremely low inventory and very high demand. Boise continues to be “discovered” as a great place to live with good job growth and reasonable costs of living compared to our west coast neighbors.  Boise seems to make just about every list for desirability of late and people are moving here.  That coupled with few existing owners leaving or listing their homes has put us in a pinch.  While closed sales (1242) rose 12.7% in May, available inventory (1323) was down 28.3% from a year ago.  If you notice those two numbers are pretty close together meaning homes are selling almost as fast as they come on the market.  Further indication of this is that we currently only have 1.1 months of inventory, which is probably also a record.  Builders are building as fast as they can and they are definitely having an impact.  334 new homes (listed in the MLS) sold in May up a whopping 51.8%.  This number represents 26.9% of all the homes sold while new home inventory accounted for 46.2% of all inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1242 +12.7 100 1323 -28.3 100 $164 +14.7 $345K +15.8 36 0.0 1.1
New Construction 334 +51.8 26.9 611 -23.0 46.2 $170 +14.1 $382K +13.0 80 -12.1 1.8

 

Canyon County 512 +8.5 100 539 -28.0 100 $126 +13.5 $229K +14.5 30 -14.3 1.1

Of course the big question is how long will the market be able to maintain the current pace?  The exact timing of market swings are pretty hard to predict but there are some signs that we may be getting close to either a slowdown or possibly even somewhat of a correction.  For one, we have seen prices rising for seven solid years in a row. Secondly, interest rates have risen modestly and there are indications they will rise further especially if inflation picks up. Thirdly, as prices continue to rise and inventory remains low more and more people will either get priced out of the market or simply give up looking.  This doesn’t seem to have deterred many of the cash heavy out of state buyers looking to move here.  Those buyers ability to make the move to Boise hinges on their ability to sell for a large profit in the current home markets, particularly the west coast.  There are some indications that those market maybe starting to slow down and that we could see a gradual trickledown effect if those market do in fact slow down.  One thing is for sure—real estate is both cyclical and local.  It’s not a matter of if the market will slow it’s when, and while what happens in other markets may have some effect here local factors have a much bigger impact.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments, and referrals.  You may have noticed that I did not break out the numbers for distressed properties this month.  In recent months the number of distressed properties in the Boise market has dropped so low there really is no significance to them other than merely reporting how low they are. I hope distressed properties continue to be statistically irrelevant for many years to come. Have a great summer!

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on June 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for April 2018

Where Have All The Houses Gone? 

In speaking of the Boise real estate market it may be an exaggeration to say, “There’s nothing for sale!”, but it sure feels like it. And while there were 1280 homes for sale in Ada County as we head into the prime selling season in April that is 24.6% below a year ago, when inventory was already considered very tight. And when you consider how strong demand is especially in the lower price points it is no wonder that buyers are becoming frustrated and a sense of urgency rules the market.  Even with the sharp drop in inventory there was still a modest increase in the number of homes sold in April versus a year ago.  932 sales closed, a 1.7% increase and for the quarter sales are up 9.2% from 2017. Needless to say things are moving quickly—the average days on market stands at 34 down from 45 just last month while the months of inventory remained at 1.4 (remember 6 is “normal”). This is without a doubt the strongest Seller’s market in recent history.

And what happens to prices in such a strong Seller’s market? They go up of course.  And boy are they going up!  Continuing a trend that really only took off about 6 months ago, prices in April  were up in the double digits no matter how you slice it.  The two metrics I use, average price per square foot, and average sales price are no exception.  The average $/sf ($161) rose 15% from a year ago and 3.2% from March. If you annualized that one month increase we would be looking at a 38% year over year increase.  Meanwhile the average sales price rose to $341,000, an 18.4% annual increase. These percentage increases are both well out of the “sustainable” zone I have discussed in previous reports. In general if you factor in both inflation and wage growth in our market, then real estate prices can increase 5-8% per year without forcing large numbers of buyers out of the market and creating a bubble.  Anything over 10% for a sustained period like we are experiencing now is likely to have some effect on future market performance. Put quite simply, if prices keep going up and wage growth isn’t keeping pace then at some point so many buyers are forced out of the market that demand begins to drop and the price increases become unsustainable. Money pouring in from out of state may delay this process but as we all know real estate is cyclical and our current 7 year run in positive territory won’t last forever. Knowing exactly when things might turn is very hard to predict but many economists are predicting a slowdown in 2019 and possibly as soon as the 4th quarter of this year.  Not a collapse but a slow down and somewhat of a correction. But for now Sellers remain firmly in the driver’s seat.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 932 +1.7 100 1280 -24.6 100 $161 +15.0 $341K +18.4 34 -20.9 1.4
Non Distress 930 +3.0 99.8 1273 -23.9 99.5 $161 +14.2 $341K +18.0 34 -20.9 1.4
REO 2 -77.8 0.2 3 -66.7 0.2 $89 -16.8 $205K +9.6 14 -74.5 1.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0 4 -63.6 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0+
New Construction 218 +6.3 23.4 645 -20.2 50.4 $172 +16.2 $405K +23.1 72 -33.9 3.0

 

Canyon County 422 +8.2 100 498 -27.4 100 $126 +15.6 $235K +19.3 41 -4.7 1.2

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  If you would like to share this report or add someone to the list please let me know as well. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on May 15, 2018 at 4:23 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for March 2018

Record Low Inventory, Prices Continue to Soar 

Just when you thought inventory in the Boise real estate market couldn’t get any tighter…it did!  There were 1237 homes for sale in March, 22.6% fewer than the same month last year, when I was already talking about how low our inventory was.  As recently as September inventory was 2098 homes, a difference of over 800 homes versus this March, or a 40% decrease.  While some of that is seasonal it is still a significant drop.  Since demand remains very high, at the current rate of sales we currently have only 1.4 months of inventory.  I don’t even have to check to confidently state that is a record low. Remember 6 months of inventory is a “stable” market, anything lower than 3 months is a strong seller’s market.  1.4 is almost off the charts, and if you exclude homes over $300K the numbers are even more startling.  Inventory of “affordable” homes under $300,000 was 53.9% below a year ago and there is currently only 0.7 months of inventory available.  Use $250K as the cutoff and there is only 0.5 months of inventory.  Needless to say this makes buying a home pretty difficult for many buyers especially first timers. Multiple offers and price escalations are not just common, they are the norm in the under $300K world. Even in the $600-700K range inventory is only 2.5 months, still “very strong seller’s market.  Finally, in the $700-800K range there is 3.9 months available, still firmly in seller’s market territory, but with a little more breathing room.

And despite how little there is to buy closed sales managed to increase 4.1% from March 2017 to 911 for the month. While we are beginning the ramp up to the spring/summer selling season it is still striking that sales in March were up 34.2% from the previous month even though we had a pretty strong February. New construction continues to be a strong factor, with 264 sold in March (+6.0%), representing 29% of all sales for the month.

This is all a perfect recipe for big time price increases and the market didn’t disappoint.   We are firmly in record territory just about any way you slice it. The average price per square foot hit $156 a 12.2% increase from a year ago while the average sales price surged 21.0% to $340K.  Keep in mind that this number had never topped $300K until last June and in less than a year, with the peak selling period yet to come we are already up to $340K. The Bubble question is certainly a legitimate one at this point, and while I don’t have a real answer to whether or not this is truly a bubble and if so how long will it last, I can say that the underlying conditions now are very different than they were in 2007-8.  A major macro-economic upheaval (ie: war) could definitely send the market into a tailspin, but most borrowers are much more qualified now than they were in 2007 and that may translate into a better ability to weather short term economic “storms”.  Let’s hope so!

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 911 +4.1 100 1237 -22.6 100 $156 +12.2 $340K +21.0 45 -18.2 1.4
Non Distress 903 +4.6 99.1 1232 -22.0 99.6 $156 +11.4 $342K +21.3 45 -19.6 1.8
REO 4 -33.3 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $101 -13.7 $201K -9.0 6 -83.3 0.5
Short Sale 1 -75.0 0.1 2 -80.0 0.2 $104 +1.0 $350K +122.9 30 -63.0 2.0
New Construction 264 +6.0 29.0 684 -15.3 55.3 $159 +6.7 $366K +10.9 80 -10.9 3.2

 

Canyon County 414 +14.4 100 556 -15.1 100 $123 +16.0 $242K +25.4 51 -15.0 1.3

 

Please share your questions and comments.  And if you own a home in the Boise area and are curious about its value in the current market, even if you have no intention of selling  please feel free to contact me.  I would be happy to do a quick comparative market analysis for you. No cost and no obligation, it’s part of what I do. Have a great spring!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on April 12, 2018 at 12:31 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2018

Sales and Prices Continue Winter Surge 

The Boise real estate market had a second straight month of both double digit unit sales and price increases.  The number of closed sales in Ada County was up 22.6% in February to 679.  Part of the percentage increase can be attributed to the closing “hangover” from last year’s January “Snowmaggedon”.  But sales were also up 5.4% from the previous month when the effects of the weather on closings had not yet been felt. All in all a very strong showing considering year to year sales trends were negative in November and December.  At that time I attributed the slowdown to the lack of inventory, which is valid. But in February we managed to sell 22.6% more homes despite having 14.8% less inventory to choose from.  There were only 1231 active listings in February, which I believe is the lowest number since well before the last boom—nearly 15 years ago.  This translates into 1.8 months of inventory based on the current rate of sales and is the 12th straight month that inventory has been at 2 months or lower.  New construction is trying to fill the gap, and 33.9% of all homes sold in February were new, but there just aren’t enough houses out there to meet the current demand.

So you guessed it, prices are going through the roof. Prices have actually been increasing in the Boise real estate market since bottoming out in the 1st qtr of 2011, but for the most part at an orderly sustainable pace meaning in the 5-10% range annually.  In the last few months we have seen a substantial uptick in the rate at which prices are increasing.  The average sales price in February in Ada County was $339,000 up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ($154) was up 10.7%.  Not only are these both record levels but consider that we only just broke the $300K threshold for average sales price in June of last year and we are already at $339K.   I’m not using the “B word” yet but the market certainly seems to be headed in that direction.  The question is with demand so high how long will it take for enough people to get priced out of the market to cause a correction?  Hard to say especially since relatively cash rich buyers migrating here are a significant part of the buyer pool in our market. After all we were just named by Forbes as the fastest growing city in the country.

But ultimately we will need good job and wage growth and low interest rates, not just lifestyle,  to keep things going.  Unemployment is low, wage growth is solid although off a low base, and interest rates, while still low have creeped up recently.  And compared to other states our overall economy is kind of in the middle of the pack.  Business Insider recently ranked Idaho as the 20th best economy in the nation saying, “Idaho’s December 2017 unemployment rate of 2.9% was the seventh lowest in the country, and its nonfarm payroll job growth rate of 2.1% between December 2016 and December 2017 was the eighth highest. But Idaho had the second-lowest Q3 2017 GDP per capita of just $42,046, and the fifth-lowest December 2017 average weekly wage of $759.36.”

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 679 +22.6 100 1231 -14.8 100 $154 +10.7 $339K +17.3 61 -6.2 1.8
Non Distress 673 +24.4 99.1 1226 -13.8 99.6 $155 +10.7 $340K +17.2 60 -6.2 1.8
REO 3 -66.7 0.4 2 -84.6 0.2 $120 +7.1 $245K +13.4 46 +130.0 0.7
Short Sale 3 0 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $117 +4.5 $195K -31.3 108 -60.4 0.7
New Construction 230 +41.1 33.9 730 -11.8 59.3 $162 +8.7 $387K +11.8 88 -6.4 3.2

 

Canyon County 301 +36.8 100 545 -16.7 100 $117 +11.4 $215K +13.2 57 -5.0 1.8

 

Overall it remains a challenging time for buyers in a very strong Seller’s Market.  The normal spring influx of new listings to the market may provide some relief as will new construction but prices will likely continue to rise sharply as well. Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your questions and comments and please share this report with anyone you would like.  As always your referrals are the highest compliment.  Thanks! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

*All reports are published March 2018, based on data available at the end of February 2018. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.


Posted on March 15, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2018

Sales Rise and Prices Explode in January

After two straight months of year over year sales declines, in January closed sales in Ada County were up 8.2% to 644.  While this is still well below the 851 homes sold in December, January is usually by far the slowest month of the year. Last year’s Snowmageddon may have had some impact on sales in the latter part of January 2017 but the main negative effects on sales were in February and early March.  Regardless, January’s numbers are strong especially when you consider that the inventory of available homes was down 12.7% from a year ago. While the average days on market crept up a bit to 47 days this was still 14.5% lower than 2017 and the total months of inventory based on the current rate of sales was a very tight 2.0.  New construction continues to provide much needed inventory. In January 63.5% of all homes available were newly constructed or under construction while there were 171 closed sales (+27.6%).

While prices have been rising steadily for years in response to the high demand and low inventory, in January prices exploded.  The average price per square foot hit $153, a new record and a 15% increase from last January and a 4.1% increase in just one month from December 2017.  The average sales price hit $326K,  also a new record, $12,000 (+3.8% ) above December 2017 and a whopping 22.6% above January of last year.  As with closed sales, the winter weather may have had some impact last year especially towards the end of the month but I think most of this year’s surge in prices is due to the fundamental market forces of very low inventory coupled with very high demand.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 644 +8.2 100 1271 -12.7 100 $153 +15.0 $326K +22.6 47 -14.5 2.0
Non Distress 638 +10.0 99.1 1264 -12.2 99.5 $153 +14.2 $327K +21.6 47 -13.0 2.0
REO 4 -71.4 0.6 2 -71.4 0.2 $132 +33.3 $248K +41.7 41 -42.3 0.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0.0 4 -60.0 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0
New Construction 171 +27.6 26.6 807 -6.9 63.5 $161 +7.3 $385K +17.0 63 -22.2 4.7

 

Canyon County 269 +35.2 100 624 -13.8 100 $114 +11.8 $223K +21.2 48 -12.7 2.3

As mentioned last month, the new tax law could have some impact on our real estate market as the allowable deductions have changed.  Most of the changes will be largely unnoticed here though as compared to higher priced areas and because of how high demand is currently.  Also in the news is the revelation that after years of reports that Millennials  were not as likely to purchase a home as previous generations because they value experiences over things, now the analysts are saying the opposite:  the nationwide housing boom is being driven by first time home buyers primarily Millennials.

A couple other tidbits: we reached somewhat of a milestone in January in that for the first time since at least the end of the previous upcycle in 2007, there were 0, read: ZERO short sales in Ada County in January.  While 4 REO (bank owned) properties did close, “distressed” sales as a whole only represented six tenths of one percent of the market.  Compare that to the roughly 50% figure when the market bottomed out in 2010-11.  We’ve come a long way baby!

Secondly, for those of you who were fortunate enough to see Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner when he spoke in Boise last fall, or who have in interest in the statewide real estate market, you may want to take a look at his latest report on the Idaho real estate market for the 4th quarter of 2017. Click HERE to view the report.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your comments and questions and remember I am never too busy for your referrals. And whether you ski or not, don’t forget to Pray for Snow! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on February 16, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2017

Idaho is the Fastest Growing State in the USA 

I’m sure you have seen the recent reports citing US Census data that Idaho’s population is growing faster percentagewise than any other state.  One of these reports from local company, Park Place Property Management, indicates our state’s population grew 2.2% in the last year and that our state population is predicted to reach 1.9 million by 2025.  Needless to say a lot of that growth will settle right here in Ada County and the Treasure Valley. The report also pegs Idaho’s current unemployment rate at 2.9%, which is at or near record territory.  Combine that with the low interest rates that we continue to enjoy and you have the recipe for a booming housing market.

 

There’s one little problem: Homes sales in Ada County have declined the last two months in a row when compared to the previous year. The culprit is no surprise if you are a regular reader of this report: lack of inventory especially in the resale segment.  Builders are building like crazy and almost 30% of all the homes sold last month were new construction.  57.6% of the homes for sale last month were new construction or under construction, but sellers of existing homes are not listing.  Some are probably waiting for the next market peak, some are just emerging from being upside down during the last housing crash, and investors are reluctant to sell rental homes that are performing well as rents continue to spiral upward.  Whatever the reason, Buyers had 8.5% fewer homes to choose from than a year ago, so all things considered the decline in sales is actually negligible, -0.2%. The demand is clearly there, but the supply is not.

 

So it is no surprise that prices continue to rise.  The average price per square foot ($147) was up 7.3% vs 2016 but dropped off a bit from the record levels of around $150/sf that we saw a couple months ago.  This is more seasonally driven than a sign of an actual market shift.  December and January are typically the slowest time of the year for real estate as people focus on the holidays and buying things like cars and jewelry not houses. The average sale price was $314K, up 13.8%.  This number is a little scary as it is above my self-proclaimed 10% cap on what I consider to be a sustainable price increase (ie: not a bubble).  I wouldn’t worry just yet however.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 851 -0.2 100 1551 -8.5 100 $147 +7.3 $314K +13.8 43 -27.1 1.8
Non Distress 845 +0.8 99.3 1540 -7.7 99.3 $147 +7.3 $314K +13.4 43 -25.9 1.8
REO 3 -70.0 0.4 5 -58.3 0.3 $125 +22.5 $278K +65.5 16 -72.9 1.7
Short Sale 2 -60.0 0.3 6 -57.1 0.4 $122 +17.3 $388K +70.2 163 -26.6 3.0
New Construction 223 -3.5 26.2 894 -2.0 57.6 $159 +3.9 $379K +13.8 57 -37.4 4.0

 

Canyon County 334 -1.2 100 750 -12.5 100 $120 +16.5 $215K +15.6 43 -23.2 2.2

 

The recently passed tax bill will certainly have some impact on the real estate market.  While the change in the standard deduction and the allowable deductions for state and local taxes may have some mid to long range effects on Buyer behavior, I don’t expect a wholesale change in the housing market as a result.  For many the decision to buy a home is more dependent on other factors such as pride of ownership, building equity, etc.  And here in Boise the in migration looks to continue to keep housing demand high. Windermere economist Matthew Gardner recently released his projections for the housing market in 2018. While his report is focused on the national picture it still has some relevance to our market and I think is worth a read.  I have attached the report as a PDF document for your convenience.

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  Pray for snow!

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on January 16, 2018 at 2:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for November 2017

Low Inventory Flattens Sales but Not Prices

In a trend that has persisted for most of this year the number of closed sales in the Boise real estate market is being held in check because of the lack of available inventory. There were 903 closed sales in Ada County in November, down 0.1% from 2016. While we have had a few months with solid year over year gains, YTD sales overall are up a modest 3.3%, which might be surprising to many especially given all the coverage of how “crazy” the market is.  What is crazy is how little inventory there is even though demand is very high.  November inventory was 1764 which is off 9.3%,  while year to date inventory is down 13.1%.  So we have managed to squeeze 3.3% more sales out of 13.1% less inventory, a clear sign of a strong seller’s market. New construction continues to boom and provide much needed inventory but at a higher price point than resale property. In fact 49.9% of the available homes in November were new construction but the prices for those homes were at an average 30% premium over resale property.

While the average days on market has climbed somewhat to 41 from a low of 31 in July it is still well below the 60 days that is considered a stable even market.  The last time we were at 60 days or more was in February(65).  Remember Snowmageddon? All that being snowed in stuff kept people from buying and selling houses.  Even though the bulk of the nastiness was in December and January, it’s impact on the market was mostly evident in February since most sales take 30-45 days to close. In all fairness, average days on market normally is seasonal and almost always is at its highest in the winter months. Also seasonally driven, the months of available inventory edged up slightly from October and sits at 2 months even.  November was the first time this figure has reached 2 since…you guessed it, February (2.6).  Six months of inventory is considered stable and anything below 3 months is considered a strong sellers market.  The last time we broke the 3 month threshold was in January of 2016.

So with super low inventory and super high demand market prices have reacted accordingly.  When compared to 2016 we are seeing strong increases, but November’s numbers came in just slightly below the all time records that we hit in October, although we have been at or near all time highs every month since the spring.  The average price per square foot was $150 in November, up 10.3% from 2016 but down $1 from October’s record.  Meanwhile the average sale price was $308K, a tick below October’s $310K, but still up 11.2% from last November.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 903 -0.1 100 1764 -9.3 100 $150 +10.3 $308K +11.2 41 -21.2 2.0
Non Distress 897 +0.7 99.3 1750 -8.5 99.2 $150 +10.3 $308K +10.4 40 -21.6 2.0
REO 3 -66.7 0.3 4 -75.0 0.1 $84 -26.3 $183K +2.2 79 -16.0 1.3
Short Sale 3 -25.0 0.3 10 -28.6 0.6 $117 +13.6 $384K +116.9 125 -23.3 3.3
New Construction 201 -2.0 22.3 880 -3.0 49.9 $163 +8.7 $372K +12.4 67 -1.5 4.4

 

Canyon County 369 -2.1 100 797 -14.0 100 $115 +11.7 $209K +11.9 43 -12.2 2.2

 

While the Republican tax bill, if it passes, could have some nationwide impact on the housing industry, the local market factors that I have identified consistently in my reports will likely remain in place.  Low unemployment, reasonable income growth, and continued in-migration due to lifestyle and affordability (for some) will likely keep our market humming at least in the short term.  I continue to believe reduced affordability caused by quickly rising home prices outpacing income growth for locals will be the factor that has the most effect on our local market.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  Happy Holidays to all and Best Wishes for a Healthy and Prosperous New Year! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on December 13, 2017 at 1:27 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report For October 2017

The Leaves May Be Falling But Prices Keep Rising 

The Boise real estate market remained a strong seller’s market in October as tight supply continues to translate into higher prices.  Closed sales (1013) were 6.6% ahead of last year while the number of homes for sale (2008) was 7.3% lower than October 2016.  While these numbers are both lower than for September, this is a reflection of the normal seasonal slowdown in the fall and winter, not a market shift.  While the months of available inventory ticked up from 1.9 to 2.0 this month, this is still an historically low figure especially for October. And homes continue to sell quickly with the average days on market dropping 22.4% from a year ago to 38 days.  The average days on market hovered right around 30 for a few months this summer but the current figure of 38 days is still far below the 60 days that is considered normal for a “stable” market.

It is no surprise given the low inventory position we are in that prices continue to rise.  What is interesting is that prices have moved in a positive direction since the market recovery began in 2011 and if anything the pace seems to be picking up in the last few months. Current prices are at or above the all time record high points that we reached this summer.   The average price per square foot stands at $151 up 9.4% from a year ago and up 1.3% from September. This is a new record. Meanwhile the average sales price in Ada County is $310,000, an increase of 10.3% year over year and tied for the record that we first hit in June of this year.  For the short term these trends are likely to continue.  At some point affordability, or the lack thereof, may force some buyers out of the market and cool things off a bit.  However the continued strong in-migration to the Boise area, low interest rates, and unemployment (2.8%) at or near record lows may allow prices to continue their upward path longer than one would normally think possible.  Many economists including Windermere’s Matthew Gardner are still predicting a mild recession in 2019 but he adds that the cause of the recession will probably not be the housing market, especially locally, and the effect on the market here could be minimal.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR OCTOBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 1013 +6.6 100 2008 -7.3 100 $151 +9.4 $310K +10.3 38 -22.4 2.0
Non Distress 1007 +7.5 99.4 1997 -6.1 99.5 $151 +9.4 $311K +9.9 38 -20.8 2.0
REO 3 -66.7 0.3 3 -84.2 0.1 $108 +11.3 $198K +11.9 14 -58.8 1.0
Short Sale 1 -66.7 0.1 6 -68.4 0.3 $103 +3.0 $160K -20.4 5 -98.5 6.0
New Construction 246 +10.8 24.3 865 -1.8 43.1 $163 +10.1 $383K +12.6 62 -19.5 3.5

 

Canyon County 412 +19.1 100 878 -10.5 100 $114 +9.6 $206K +9.6 39 -2.5 2.1

The national media is sending conflicting signals on the outlook for the housing market for the short to mid-term.  For a few years we have been hearing about the “Millennial”  generation and how they were growing up slower than previous generations, valued experiences over possessions,  and were not as keen on homeownership. This, they explained, helped fuel the rental housing market as it came back to life after the Great Recession.  Some recent articles continue to argue for this while others including the Wall Street Journal have started singing a different tune.  They cite recent research which concludes that the Millennials are now grown up and that in fact they do want to own homes and are starting to turn away from rental housing and buy their first house. It’s hard to say how much of an impact Millennials have on our market.  What I can report is that as described above the home sales market in our area is booming but at the same time our rental market remains as tight as it has ever been.  According to Park Place Property Management here in Boise, who puts out a very informative quarterly vacancy report, the third quarter vacancy rate for rental properties in Ada  County was 2.2%.  5% vacancy is more typical of a healthy rental market because of the normal “churn” that exists with leases. Of course a lot of this points back to in-migration, regardless of age group, and very low unemployment. Talk to renters and buyers alike and they will all tell you finding a place to live is tough right now.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and have a great Holiday Season.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 


Posted on November 17, 2017 at 11:52 am
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

The Gardner Report Q3 2017–Insights into the Idaho Housing Market

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s chief economist share his insights on the Idaho Housing Market.  A good read!  See the full report Here.


Posted on November 7, 2017 at 3:54 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , ,