Boise Market Report for August 2018

Sales Stutter While Prices Keep Rolling 

In August the Boise real estate market revealed some subtle signs that the wheels of a predicted market shift may in fact be starting to turn.  One month does not define a trend but there are indicators worth watching as we head into fall.  First, the number of closed sales in Ada County fell 4.2% to 1179 versus last August, not a huge decline, but the largest we have seen in quite some time.  Secondly, pending sales, an indicator of future market activity dropped 7.9% in August.  This will likely be reflected in September and October’s closings. Lastly, while still down 13.7% from a year ago the number of homes for sale increased 13.4% from July meaning there were over 200 more homes available than in the previous month.  Albeit inventories are still near historic lows but are inching up lowly.  We had 1.5 months of inventory in August up from a low of just 1.0 in May and only slightly below last August’s 1.7 months. Average days on market were a remarkable 26 days, still indicative of a very strong seller’s market.

Booming new construction in the Boise real estate market had a significant effect on the numbers and helped soften the blow of dropping sales. Sales of newly built homes increased 17.8% and were 25.8% of all sales in August.  While sales of all homes dropped 4.2%, if you remove sales of new homes, sales of pre-existing homes dropped 10.1% while the number of pre-existing homes for sale was off 25.1%.  Homeowners just aren’t putting their houses on the market and as long as prices continue to explode we can probably expect more of the same. Once the market senses it has peaked expect a wave of inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR AUGUST  2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1179 -4.2 100 1771 -13.7 100 $169 +15.0 $369K +19.4 26 -23.5 1.5
New Construction 304 +17.8 25.8 799 +6.3 45.1 $175 +9.4 $418K +14.5 47 -30.9 2.6

 

Canyon County 490 -1.2 100 634 -33.3 100 $132 +14.8 $245K +16.1 26 -18.7 1.3

Speaking of prices, the stumble in closings has yet to impact upward price trends as demand remains very high. The average price per square foot rose to $169, a record high, and 15% higher than last year.  That means buyers paid on average $22/sf more than they did a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sale price was $369,000 up $10K (2.7%) just from July and $60K (19.4%) over the last year. As prices continue to soar affording a house becomes more and more difficult for some buyers particularly first timers.  Many are forced to rent in an already tight rental market here in Boise.  Oddly enough this isn’t true everywhere even in other hot markets.  Bloomberg recently published an article with the headline, “Rental Glut Sends Chills Through the Hottest US Housing Markets” describing Seattle as having the biggest drop in rental prices of the 50 biggest cities. It says there is now a glut of newer amenity rich centrally located apartments that are fighting for tenants.  So far this has not really affected Boise despite the large number of apartments going up including many downtown.

It will remain to be seen whether the drop in sales was a hiccup or a trend in the Boise real estate market, but with the national media suggesting that at least in some markets a change is already underway I’m betting we are not far behind.  Please feel free to contact me with you questions and comments. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on September 14, 2018 at 10:47 am
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

CATCH and Windermere Team Up to Help End Homelessness in Boise

Our brokerage has partnered with CATCH in several ways over the last few years to help them in their mission to end homelessness.  It is our shared belief that every family and every person deserves a home.  Here is a short video that illustrates Windermere’s commitment to helping others: Windermere Community Service Day 2018

 


Posted on August 29, 2018 at 2:32 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2018

New Construction Buoys Sales, Prices Still Sizzling

July was another scorcher in the Boise Real Estate Market despite the lack of pre-existing homes on the market. Supply woes continue to both keep sales from rising to meet demand and to keep prices soaring for those homes that do hit the market.  New construction is helping stabilize the market but we remain in an epic seller’s market.  Total homes sales in Ada County (1191) were up 3.5% from a year ago but sales of existing homes (906) dropped 1.6%.  Lack of inventory continues to be the issue.  While overall inventory of homes for sale dropped 24.4%, existing home inventory dropped 32.5%. Days on market numbers paint a similar picture—overall we are at 29 average days on market but for existing homes that number drops to 19 days. Either number would be considered historically low. Based on the current rate of sales we have 1.3 months of overall inventory but only 1.0 months for already built homes. The numbers in Canyon County are similar but even more extreme in some cases: overall inventory there is off 37.8% despite a 10% increase in sales.

As a result, prices continue their march upward throughout the Treasure Valley.  The average sales price in July was essentially unchanged from June but was up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ticked up to $167 a 13.6% annual gain.  This is making it tougher and tougher for buyers, especially first time and/or Millennials to afford a suitable place to live.  We all have stories to tell about this but some of you may appreciate a recent story from NPR that focused on the problem by featuring Boise. Also, for more details on the market statewide please see the latest Gardner Report from Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. Matthew will be coming to Boise in October to give a  detailed report on the Boise economic and real estate outlook.  More details about this event to come.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1191 +3.5 100 1562 -24.4 100 $167 +13.6 $359K +17.3 29 -6.5 1.3
New Construction 285 +23.9 23.9 682 -10.5 43.7 $172 +8.9 $404K +11.0 62 -17.3 2.4

 

Canyon County 494 +10.0 100 564 -37.8 100 $131 +13.9 $252K +19.4 28 -15.2 1.1

 

So in the short term things remain rosy for sellers and really tough for buyers, but as I have mentioned previously there is some consensus building among the experts that a change is coming.  The Wall Street Journal recently featured a story on the front page with the headline “Home Sales Extend Slump Despite Economic Strength”.  Nationally, the report says, home sales have dropped on an annual basis in five of the first 6 months of the year with high prices, low inventory, and rising interest rates being to blame. The article also cites examples of the market slowing already in nearby cities such as Portland and Seattle due to buyers becoming more cautious especially at the high end of the market.  The article isn’t all doom and gloom though, saying at least for now demand isn’t the issue in most markets, supply is.  Bloomberg News took a different approach—a shovel to the face.  Their recent story was titled: The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years. Rising interest rates and high prices are stretching buyers to where they just give up. The famous economist Robert Shiller is quoted in the story as saying, “This could be the very beginning of a turning point”. The story goes on to cite rising inventories in nearby cities: San Jose +12%, Seattle +24%, and Portland +32%.  It still too soon to say what and when a change will come to Boise but if history is a guide we tend to lag 6-12 months behind our larger neighbors so I am guessing we will see some sort of a shift sooner than later.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments and stay cool!!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on August 16, 2018 at 11:30 am
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2018

Low Inventory Pinches Off Sales Growth in June 

With a few minor exceptions closed sales in the Boise real estate market have continued to grow despite record low inventories but in June sales (1247) were off 4.2% from 2017 and also down slightly from May 2018.  This drop was primarily a function of lack of available choices for buyers as demand remains very strong.  The number of homes for sale at 1561 was down 21.2% from a year ago.  Inventory remains extremely tight with the average days on market dropping to 28, the lowest I have ever seen while the months of available inventory edged up slightly from May’s record low 1.0 months to 1.3 months.  By any typical method of evaluation this is an absurdly tight market for buyers right now.   While I do predict that rising prices will eventually erode the typical buyer’s purchase power to the point that the market slows down, June’s drop in sales was not driven by drop in demand but by lack of options for buyers in the market.

Needless to say given this scenario, prices continue to charge forward further into record territory.  The average price per square foot was $166 up 13.7 from a year ago while the average sales price jumped nearly $20K in one month to $363,000. Percentage wise we were up 17.1% compared to June 2017. I believe these types of numbers are unsustainable and will eventually lead to the next market slowdown probably within the next 12-18 months. As more buyers find themselves priced out of the market demand will depend more and more on the cash rich typically out of state buyer.  While for now there seems to be an almost endless supply of these that will change especially if markets on the west coast slow down as in some cases they have already started to do. Sellers trying to time the peak of this cycle should be on notice that the time is approaching and will be behind us by the time most people are aware it even occurred.  Anecdotally some of my colleagues have already commented that they seem to see an uptick in price reductions and back on market listings (likely due to appraisal issues).  While the statistics don’t bear that out currently, often the signals of a market shift are more a feeling than the numbers will reveal for a period of time.  Anyone out there getting a feeling change is in the air?  I’m personally not there but…

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1247 -4.2 100 1561 -21.2 100 $166 +13.7 $363K +17.1 28 -20.0 1.3
New Construction 314 +1.6 25.2 680 -5.9 43.4 $172 +8.2 $411K +12.3 63 -17.1 2.2

 

Canyon County 499 -1.0 100 604 -26.5 100 $129 +13.2 $245K +17.2 23 -25.8 1.2

 

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on July 18, 2018 at 9:22 am
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2018

May Was Another Hot Month For Boise Real Estate

It’s starting to sound like a broken record when I report that the Boise real estate market has broken another record. But it just keeps happening. May saw record high prices yet again.  The average price per square foot jumped to $164, up $3 from April and up $21 (14.7%)  from a year ago.  Meanwhile the average sales price also set a record at $345,000.  This is up $4,000 from April and $47,000 (+15.8%) for the year. Sellers are not only in the driver’s seat, they are in the fast lane.

The cause of these record breaking prices is no secret and has been the case for many months—extremely low inventory and very high demand. Boise continues to be “discovered” as a great place to live with good job growth and reasonable costs of living compared to our west coast neighbors.  Boise seems to make just about every list for desirability of late and people are moving here.  That coupled with few existing owners leaving or listing their homes has put us in a pinch.  While closed sales (1242) rose 12.7% in May, available inventory (1323) was down 28.3% from a year ago.  If you notice those two numbers are pretty close together meaning homes are selling almost as fast as they come on the market.  Further indication of this is that we currently only have 1.1 months of inventory, which is probably also a record.  Builders are building as fast as they can and they are definitely having an impact.  334 new homes (listed in the MLS) sold in May up a whopping 51.8%.  This number represents 26.9% of all the homes sold while new home inventory accounted for 46.2% of all inventory.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 1242 +12.7 100 1323 -28.3 100 $164 +14.7 $345K +15.8 36 0.0 1.1
New Construction 334 +51.8 26.9 611 -23.0 46.2 $170 +14.1 $382K +13.0 80 -12.1 1.8

 

Canyon County 512 +8.5 100 539 -28.0 100 $126 +13.5 $229K +14.5 30 -14.3 1.1

Of course the big question is how long will the market be able to maintain the current pace?  The exact timing of market swings are pretty hard to predict but there are some signs that we may be getting close to either a slowdown or possibly even somewhat of a correction.  For one, we have seen prices rising for seven solid years in a row. Secondly, interest rates have risen modestly and there are indications they will rise further especially if inflation picks up. Thirdly, as prices continue to rise and inventory remains low more and more people will either get priced out of the market or simply give up looking.  This doesn’t seem to have deterred many of the cash heavy out of state buyers looking to move here.  Those buyers ability to make the move to Boise hinges on their ability to sell for a large profit in the current home markets, particularly the west coast.  There are some indications that those market maybe starting to slow down and that we could see a gradual trickledown effect if those market do in fact slow down.  One thing is for sure—real estate is both cyclical and local.  It’s not a matter of if the market will slow it’s when, and while what happens in other markets may have some effect here local factors have a much bigger impact.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments, and referrals.  You may have noticed that I did not break out the numbers for distressed properties this month.  In recent months the number of distressed properties in the Boise market has dropped so low there really is no significance to them other than merely reporting how low they are. I hope distressed properties continue to be statistically irrelevant for many years to come. Have a great summer!

 Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on June 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for April 2018

Where Have All The Houses Gone? 

In speaking of the Boise real estate market it may be an exaggeration to say, “There’s nothing for sale!”, but it sure feels like it. And while there were 1280 homes for sale in Ada County as we head into the prime selling season in April that is 24.6% below a year ago, when inventory was already considered very tight. And when you consider how strong demand is especially in the lower price points it is no wonder that buyers are becoming frustrated and a sense of urgency rules the market.  Even with the sharp drop in inventory there was still a modest increase in the number of homes sold in April versus a year ago.  932 sales closed, a 1.7% increase and for the quarter sales are up 9.2% from 2017. Needless to say things are moving quickly—the average days on market stands at 34 down from 45 just last month while the months of inventory remained at 1.4 (remember 6 is “normal”). This is without a doubt the strongest Seller’s market in recent history.

And what happens to prices in such a strong Seller’s market? They go up of course.  And boy are they going up!  Continuing a trend that really only took off about 6 months ago, prices in April  were up in the double digits no matter how you slice it.  The two metrics I use, average price per square foot, and average sales price are no exception.  The average $/sf ($161) rose 15% from a year ago and 3.2% from March. If you annualized that one month increase we would be looking at a 38% year over year increase.  Meanwhile the average sales price rose to $341,000, an 18.4% annual increase. These percentage increases are both well out of the “sustainable” zone I have discussed in previous reports. In general if you factor in both inflation and wage growth in our market, then real estate prices can increase 5-8% per year without forcing large numbers of buyers out of the market and creating a bubble.  Anything over 10% for a sustained period like we are experiencing now is likely to have some effect on future market performance. Put quite simply, if prices keep going up and wage growth isn’t keeping pace then at some point so many buyers are forced out of the market that demand begins to drop and the price increases become unsustainable. Money pouring in from out of state may delay this process but as we all know real estate is cyclical and our current 7 year run in positive territory won’t last forever. Knowing exactly when things might turn is very hard to predict but many economists are predicting a slowdown in 2019 and possibly as soon as the 4th quarter of this year.  Not a collapse but a slow down and somewhat of a correction. But for now Sellers remain firmly in the driver’s seat.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 932 +1.7 100 1280 -24.6 100 $161 +15.0 $341K +18.4 34 -20.9 1.4
Non Distress 930 +3.0 99.8 1273 -23.9 99.5 $161 +14.2 $341K +18.0 34 -20.9 1.4
REO 2 -77.8 0.2 3 -66.7 0.2 $89 -16.8 $205K +9.6 14 -74.5 1.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0 4 -63.6 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0+
New Construction 218 +6.3 23.4 645 -20.2 50.4 $172 +16.2 $405K +23.1 72 -33.9 3.0

 

Canyon County 422 +8.2 100 498 -27.4 100 $126 +15.6 $235K +19.3 41 -4.7 1.2

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  If you would like to share this report or add someone to the list please let me know as well. 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on May 15, 2018 at 4:23 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for March 2018

Record Low Inventory, Prices Continue to Soar 

Just when you thought inventory in the Boise real estate market couldn’t get any tighter…it did!  There were 1237 homes for sale in March, 22.6% fewer than the same month last year, when I was already talking about how low our inventory was.  As recently as September inventory was 2098 homes, a difference of over 800 homes versus this March, or a 40% decrease.  While some of that is seasonal it is still a significant drop.  Since demand remains very high, at the current rate of sales we currently have only 1.4 months of inventory.  I don’t even have to check to confidently state that is a record low. Remember 6 months of inventory is a “stable” market, anything lower than 3 months is a strong seller’s market.  1.4 is almost off the charts, and if you exclude homes over $300K the numbers are even more startling.  Inventory of “affordable” homes under $300,000 was 53.9% below a year ago and there is currently only 0.7 months of inventory available.  Use $250K as the cutoff and there is only 0.5 months of inventory.  Needless to say this makes buying a home pretty difficult for many buyers especially first timers. Multiple offers and price escalations are not just common, they are the norm in the under $300K world. Even in the $600-700K range inventory is only 2.5 months, still “very strong seller’s market.  Finally, in the $700-800K range there is 3.9 months available, still firmly in seller’s market territory, but with a little more breathing room.

And despite how little there is to buy closed sales managed to increase 4.1% from March 2017 to 911 for the month. While we are beginning the ramp up to the spring/summer selling season it is still striking that sales in March were up 34.2% from the previous month even though we had a pretty strong February. New construction continues to be a strong factor, with 264 sold in March (+6.0%), representing 29% of all sales for the month.

This is all a perfect recipe for big time price increases and the market didn’t disappoint.   We are firmly in record territory just about any way you slice it. The average price per square foot hit $156 a 12.2% increase from a year ago while the average sales price surged 21.0% to $340K.  Keep in mind that this number had never topped $300K until last June and in less than a year, with the peak selling period yet to come we are already up to $340K. The Bubble question is certainly a legitimate one at this point, and while I don’t have a real answer to whether or not this is truly a bubble and if so how long will it last, I can say that the underlying conditions now are very different than they were in 2007-8.  A major macro-economic upheaval (ie: war) could definitely send the market into a tailspin, but most borrowers are much more qualified now than they were in 2007 and that may translate into a better ability to weather short term economic “storms”.  Let’s hope so!

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 911 +4.1 100 1237 -22.6 100 $156 +12.2 $340K +21.0 45 -18.2 1.4
Non Distress 903 +4.6 99.1 1232 -22.0 99.6 $156 +11.4 $342K +21.3 45 -19.6 1.8
REO 4 -33.3 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $101 -13.7 $201K -9.0 6 -83.3 0.5
Short Sale 1 -75.0 0.1 2 -80.0 0.2 $104 +1.0 $350K +122.9 30 -63.0 2.0
New Construction 264 +6.0 29.0 684 -15.3 55.3 $159 +6.7 $366K +10.9 80 -10.9 3.2

 

Canyon County 414 +14.4 100 556 -15.1 100 $123 +16.0 $242K +25.4 51 -15.0 1.3

 

Please share your questions and comments.  And if you own a home in the Boise area and are curious about its value in the current market, even if you have no intention of selling  please feel free to contact me.  I would be happy to do a quick comparative market analysis for you. No cost and no obligation, it’s part of what I do. Have a great spring!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on April 12, 2018 at 12:31 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for February 2018

Sales and Prices Continue Winter Surge 

The Boise real estate market had a second straight month of both double digit unit sales and price increases.  The number of closed sales in Ada County was up 22.6% in February to 679.  Part of the percentage increase can be attributed to the closing “hangover” from last year’s January “Snowmaggedon”.  But sales were also up 5.4% from the previous month when the effects of the weather on closings had not yet been felt. All in all a very strong showing considering year to year sales trends were negative in November and December.  At that time I attributed the slowdown to the lack of inventory, which is valid. But in February we managed to sell 22.6% more homes despite having 14.8% less inventory to choose from.  There were only 1231 active listings in February, which I believe is the lowest number since well before the last boom—nearly 15 years ago.  This translates into 1.8 months of inventory based on the current rate of sales and is the 12th straight month that inventory has been at 2 months or lower.  New construction is trying to fill the gap, and 33.9% of all homes sold in February were new, but there just aren’t enough houses out there to meet the current demand.

So you guessed it, prices are going through the roof. Prices have actually been increasing in the Boise real estate market since bottoming out in the 1st qtr of 2011, but for the most part at an orderly sustainable pace meaning in the 5-10% range annually.  In the last few months we have seen a substantial uptick in the rate at which prices are increasing.  The average sales price in February in Ada County was $339,000 up 17.3% from 2017 while the average price per square foot ($154) was up 10.7%.  Not only are these both record levels but consider that we only just broke the $300K threshold for average sales price in June of last year and we are already at $339K.   I’m not using the “B word” yet but the market certainly seems to be headed in that direction.  The question is with demand so high how long will it take for enough people to get priced out of the market to cause a correction?  Hard to say especially since relatively cash rich buyers migrating here are a significant part of the buyer pool in our market. After all we were just named by Forbes as the fastest growing city in the country.

But ultimately we will need good job and wage growth and low interest rates, not just lifestyle,  to keep things going.  Unemployment is low, wage growth is solid although off a low base, and interest rates, while still low have creeped up recently.  And compared to other states our overall economy is kind of in the middle of the pack.  Business Insider recently ranked Idaho as the 20th best economy in the nation saying, “Idaho’s December 2017 unemployment rate of 2.9% was the seventh lowest in the country, and its nonfarm payroll job growth rate of 2.1% between December 2016 and December 2017 was the eighth highest. But Idaho had the second-lowest Q3 2017 GDP per capita of just $42,046, and the fifth-lowest December 2017 average weekly wage of $759.36.”

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR FEBRUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 679 +22.6 100 1231 -14.8 100 $154 +10.7 $339K +17.3 61 -6.2 1.8
Non Distress 673 +24.4 99.1 1226 -13.8 99.6 $155 +10.7 $340K +17.2 60 -6.2 1.8
REO 3 -66.7 0.4 2 -84.6 0.2 $120 +7.1 $245K +13.4 46 +130.0 0.7
Short Sale 3 0 0.4 2 -75.0 0.2 $117 +4.5 $195K -31.3 108 -60.4 0.7
New Construction 230 +41.1 33.9 730 -11.8 59.3 $162 +8.7 $387K +11.8 88 -6.4 3.2

 

Canyon County 301 +36.8 100 545 -16.7 100 $117 +11.4 $215K +13.2 57 -5.0 1.8

 

Overall it remains a challenging time for buyers in a very strong Seller’s Market.  The normal spring influx of new listings to the market may provide some relief as will new construction but prices will likely continue to rise sharply as well. Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your questions and comments and please share this report with anyone you would like.  As always your referrals are the highest compliment.  Thanks! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

*All reports are published March 2018, based on data available at the end of February 2018. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.


Posted on March 15, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2018

Sales Rise and Prices Explode in January

After two straight months of year over year sales declines, in January closed sales in Ada County were up 8.2% to 644.  While this is still well below the 851 homes sold in December, January is usually by far the slowest month of the year. Last year’s Snowmageddon may have had some impact on sales in the latter part of January 2017 but the main negative effects on sales were in February and early March.  Regardless, January’s numbers are strong especially when you consider that the inventory of available homes was down 12.7% from a year ago. While the average days on market crept up a bit to 47 days this was still 14.5% lower than 2017 and the total months of inventory based on the current rate of sales was a very tight 2.0.  New construction continues to provide much needed inventory. In January 63.5% of all homes available were newly constructed or under construction while there were 171 closed sales (+27.6%).

While prices have been rising steadily for years in response to the high demand and low inventory, in January prices exploded.  The average price per square foot hit $153, a new record and a 15% increase from last January and a 4.1% increase in just one month from December 2017.  The average sales price hit $326K,  also a new record, $12,000 (+3.8% ) above December 2017 and a whopping 22.6% above January of last year.  As with closed sales, the winter weather may have had some impact last year especially towards the end of the month but I think most of this year’s surge in prices is due to the fundamental market forces of very low inventory coupled with very high demand.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2018

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 644 +8.2 100 1271 -12.7 100 $153 +15.0 $326K +22.6 47 -14.5 2.0
Non Distress 638 +10.0 99.1 1264 -12.2 99.5 $153 +14.2 $327K +21.6 47 -13.0 2.0
REO 4 -71.4 0.6 2 -71.4 0.2 $132 +33.3 $248K +41.7 41 -42.3 0.5
Short Sale 0 -100.0 0.0 4 -60.0 0.3 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 0 -100.0 4.0
New Construction 171 +27.6 26.6 807 -6.9 63.5 $161 +7.3 $385K +17.0 63 -22.2 4.7

 

Canyon County 269 +35.2 100 624 -13.8 100 $114 +11.8 $223K +21.2 48 -12.7 2.3

As mentioned last month, the new tax law could have some impact on our real estate market as the allowable deductions have changed.  Most of the changes will be largely unnoticed here though as compared to higher priced areas and because of how high demand is currently.  Also in the news is the revelation that after years of reports that Millennials  were not as likely to purchase a home as previous generations because they value experiences over things, now the analysts are saying the opposite:  the nationwide housing boom is being driven by first time home buyers primarily Millennials.

A couple other tidbits: we reached somewhat of a milestone in January in that for the first time since at least the end of the previous upcycle in 2007, there were 0, read: ZERO short sales in Ada County in January.  While 4 REO (bank owned) properties did close, “distressed” sales as a whole only represented six tenths of one percent of the market.  Compare that to the roughly 50% figure when the market bottomed out in 2010-11.  We’ve come a long way baby!

Secondly, for those of you who were fortunate enough to see Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner when he spoke in Boise last fall, or who have in interest in the statewide real estate market, you may want to take a look at his latest report on the Idaho real estate market for the 4th quarter of 2017. Click HERE to view the report.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me with your comments and questions and remember I am never too busy for your referrals. And whether you ski or not, don’t forget to Pray for Snow! 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on February 16, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2017

Idaho is the Fastest Growing State in the USA 

I’m sure you have seen the recent reports citing US Census data that Idaho’s population is growing faster percentagewise than any other state.  One of these reports from local company, Park Place Property Management, indicates our state’s population grew 2.2% in the last year and that our state population is predicted to reach 1.9 million by 2025.  Needless to say a lot of that growth will settle right here in Ada County and the Treasure Valley. The report also pegs Idaho’s current unemployment rate at 2.9%, which is at or near record territory.  Combine that with the low interest rates that we continue to enjoy and you have the recipe for a booming housing market.

 

There’s one little problem: Homes sales in Ada County have declined the last two months in a row when compared to the previous year. The culprit is no surprise if you are a regular reader of this report: lack of inventory especially in the resale segment.  Builders are building like crazy and almost 30% of all the homes sold last month were new construction.  57.6% of the homes for sale last month were new construction or under construction, but sellers of existing homes are not listing.  Some are probably waiting for the next market peak, some are just emerging from being upside down during the last housing crash, and investors are reluctant to sell rental homes that are performing well as rents continue to spiral upward.  Whatever the reason, Buyers had 8.5% fewer homes to choose from than a year ago, so all things considered the decline in sales is actually negligible, -0.2%. The demand is clearly there, but the supply is not.

 

So it is no surprise that prices continue to rise.  The average price per square foot ($147) was up 7.3% vs 2016 but dropped off a bit from the record levels of around $150/sf that we saw a couple months ago.  This is more seasonally driven than a sign of an actual market shift.  December and January are typically the slowest time of the year for real estate as people focus on the holidays and buying things like cars and jewelry not houses. The average sale price was $314K, up 13.8%.  This number is a little scary as it is above my self-proclaimed 10% cap on what I consider to be a sustainable price increase (ie: not a bubble).  I wouldn’t worry just yet however.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2017

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All` 851 -0.2 100 1551 -8.5 100 $147 +7.3 $314K +13.8 43 -27.1 1.8
Non Distress 845 +0.8 99.3 1540 -7.7 99.3 $147 +7.3 $314K +13.4 43 -25.9 1.8
REO 3 -70.0 0.4 5 -58.3 0.3 $125 +22.5 $278K +65.5 16 -72.9 1.7
Short Sale 2 -60.0 0.3 6 -57.1 0.4 $122 +17.3 $388K +70.2 163 -26.6 3.0
New Construction 223 -3.5 26.2 894 -2.0 57.6 $159 +3.9 $379K +13.8 57 -37.4 4.0

 

Canyon County 334 -1.2 100 750 -12.5 100 $120 +16.5 $215K +15.6 43 -23.2 2.2

 

The recently passed tax bill will certainly have some impact on the real estate market.  While the change in the standard deduction and the allowable deductions for state and local taxes may have some mid to long range effects on Buyer behavior, I don’t expect a wholesale change in the housing market as a result.  For many the decision to buy a home is more dependent on other factors such as pride of ownership, building equity, etc.  And here in Boise the in migration looks to continue to keep housing demand high. Windermere economist Matthew Gardner recently released his projections for the housing market in 2018. While his report is focused on the national picture it still has some relevance to our market and I think is worth a read.  I have attached the report as a PDF document for your convenience.

 

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  Pray for snow!

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

camjohnson@windermere.com


Posted on January 16, 2018 at 2:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Posted in Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,