Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for April 2013

April was another very strong month in the Boise Real Estate Market.  Closed sales surged 10.2% above last year while inventory continued to have problems keeping up.  Closed sales had been at or below 2012 levels so far this year ostensibly due to the low inventory making it more difficult for some buyers to find what they were looking for but that does not seem to have held true in April. Total residential inventory (not including manufactured homes) dropped 11.8% from 2012 levels to 1873 units  As a result overall inventory fell to 2.5 months which is very tight when compared to both historical averages, and the 6 months of inventory widely considered to indicate a stable market. Average Days on Market dropped to 66 days from 86 in March and have dropped 27.5% since 2012.  Even more dramatic was the 93 days on market for new construction, a 40% drop from 2012.

Prices continue to rise quickly although we may have started to see the gradual flattening of the sales curve that I have been predicting for the last few months. This may help calm those (myself included) who fear we are at risk of a new price bubble if things don’t settle down. For example the average price per square foot was up a very healthy 11.5% in April vs 2012, but this compares to March which was up 19.4% vs 2012. Similarly the average sold price was up 16.2% in April but 28.3% in March vs 2012.  And both the $/sf and average sold price actually dropped slightly from March 2013.  I don’t see that as meaning that prices have peaked as the March numbers seemed to spike a bit from the general trend in the previous month.  I would like to see the market end up 2013 with price gains in the 8-10% range, still well ahead of inflation but not likely to create a buying panic or wild speculative investing.  We do have a big hole to climb out of so I think 8-10% is a sustainable growth rate for 2-3 years anyway.

Another factor that may help dampen the surge in prices is that the number of distressed properties that sold in April, while still well below 2012,  was up vs March 2013.  REOs went from 29 in March to 43 in April  (+48.3%) and Short Sales went 68 in March to 86 in April (+26.5%).  This bears watching but I don’t see it as a trend yet.  I think sellers who are close to emerging from being under water for 5+ years are going to hold off on selling if they can until prices rise to the point that they won’t have to short sell and damage their credit. As for the rise in REOs, I am not convinced that this is the start of a release of properties held back by the banks—the so called ghost inventory.  I am more apt to believe this is due to chance or other smaller facors but it also bears watching.

Market stats for Boise (Ada County) Residential Property April 2013 compared to 2012

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

745

+10.2

100

1873

-11.8

100

$106

+11.5

$215K

+16.2

66

-27.5

2.5

Non Distress

613

+32.7

82.3

1529

+3.0

81.6

$110

+8.8

$225K

+9.2

56

-34.1

2.5

REO

43

-38.6

5.8

57

+39.0

3.0

$84

+13.6

$152K

+7.0

69

+91.7

1.3

Short Sale

86

-39.9

11.5

287

-51.7

15.3

$83

+13.1

$173K

+23.6

134

-5.0

3.3

New Construction

159

+33.6

21.3

567

-8.1

30.3

$119

+7.6

$270K

+21.1

93

-40.0

3.6

This month I also wanted to zero in a little more on where the tightest inventory is price wise and location wise. Location wise, surprisingly, the areas that are generally considered the most desirable and that command the highest average prices also had the highest inventory.  Overall inventory in Ada County is at 2.5 months while Eagle comes in at 4.9 months, Star at 3.5 and Boise’s North End at 3.4.

 

Area

Months of Inventory

Boise-All

2.1

Boise-North End

3.4

Boise-East

1.9

Boise-SE

2.3

Boise-Bench

1.8

Boise-South

2.4

Boise-West

1.7

Boise-NW

2.2

Meridian-All

2.5

Eagle

4.9

Star

3.5

Kuna

2.7

 

If we break down Ada County by prices another picture appears that is more predictable.  Inventories are extremely tight in the more affordable price ranges and gradually tick up to the higher end.  For homes priced above $750K there are a boatload of choices available compared to the rate of sales.

 

Price Range

Months of Inventory

0-99,999

1.9

100,000-124,999

1.2

125,000-149,999

1.5

150,000-174,999

1.9

175,000-199,999

2.1

200,000-249,999

3.1

250,000-299,999

2.9

300,000-399-999

3.0

400,000-499,999

3.0

500,000-749,999

7.6

750,000+

88+

 

All this talk of rising prices and low inventories has to have many of you wondering what your home is worth.  If you are considering selling now or in the near future and are curious, please contact me and I will be happy to provide you my estimate of your homes current value and marketability.  If you do decide to list your property based on the estimate I provided I will do a more in-depth market analysis as well a provide highlights of a marketing strategy appropriate for your location and style of home.  As always, thank you for your feedback and questions and most of all your referrals.  Have a great summer!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on May 14, 2013 at 10:09 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized

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