Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2016

Sales Off Slightly In December But Prices Rising, Inventory Tight 

There were 830 closed residential sales in December which was 3.7% below a year ago.  December was the first month in recent memory that didn’t register a year over year sales increase.  Fortunately there was a reason for that and I do not believe this is the beginning of a market slowdown.  December 2015 was an extraordinarily active month and appears as a spike on the sales graph for that year.  Without that spike we likely would have had another month of increased sales.  And pending sales, a good indicator of future market activity, were up 32.1% in December so the outlook for January and February is strong.  It remains to be seen what if any effect the prolonged period of wintry weather will have on sales.  This would likely manifest itself in a reduction in closings scheduled for late February or March. I believe this would be a temporary setback though.

Low inventory continues to be a concern as demand remains strong at most price points.  1696 homes were listed for sale in December, a 13% drop from a year ago and at the current rate of sales our inventory stands at 2 months.  This is considered a strong indicator of a seller’s market since 6 months of inventory  is considered a  stable or neutral market. Furthermore, what inventory there is has been selling faster.  The average days on market was 59, a 7.8% drop from last year.  59 days is actually significantly higher than it was earlier in the year but I believe that is more of a seasonal fluctuation than an indication of a market slow down. The builders have certainly responded to the lack of re-sale inventory by ramping up projects and currently 52.9% of all the homes for sale in Ada County are new construction.  Historically this number has been in the 30’s or low 40’s.

As expected given how tight supply is, prices have responded but still seem to  be rising at a reasonable “sustainable” rate when overall inflation is factored in.  The average sales price for all homes in December was $276,000 (+5.3%).  Interestingly, the average sales price for new construction ($333,000) was actually down 2.6%.  This could be due to builders adjusting their product mix to where they feel the market is or could be a reaction to the fact I alluded to above—over 50% of current inventory is new construction. The fact that the average price per square foot for new builds rose 7.7% ($153), while the average sales price dropped, might suggest the production builders are reducing floor plan size slight but I have not researched that thoroughly.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type # Sold % +/- % of Total Sold # For Sale % +/- % of Total For Sale $/SF % +/- Average Sold Price % +/- Days on Market % +/- Months Inventory
All 830 -3.7 100 1696 -13.0 100 $137 +8.7 $276K +5.3 59 -7.8 2.0
Non Distress 816 -2.7 98.3 1668 -11.0 98.3 $137 +8.7 $277K +4.9 58 -7.9 2.0
REO 9 +28.6 1.1 12 -29.4 0.7 $100 +22.0 $169K -12.0 50 +8.7 1.3
Short Sale 5 -66.7 0.6 14 -75.4 0.8 $104 0.0 $228K +22.6 222 +76.2 2.8
New Construction 226 +11.3 27.2 912 -1.0 53.8 $153 +7.7 $333K -2.6 92 -2.1 4.0

As mentioned in my report last month, the two main uncertainties for the national real estate market moving forward into 2017 are interest rates and regulatory climate. After a quick spike right after the election things settled back down.  Many do feel that rates will rise somewhat in the coming year whether organically or indirectly due to action by the Federal Reserve. Either way this could slow the market down a bit if the costs of borrowing increase substantially. On the regulatory side, the incoming administration has made many promises concerning rolling back regulations which could open up opportunities for some buyers.  This would effectively stimulate sales.  So a mixed bag ahead.

Thanks as always for the great comments and questions and keep those referrals coming!  I hope you and your homes make it safely through the winter.  I know many of you, myself included, have had to deal with weather related property damage or other issues.  Keep on the sunny side!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Real Estate/Boise Valley

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax


camjohnson@windermere.com

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change 1/1/2017 – 1/8/2017 12/1/2016 – 12/8/2016 % Change
For Sale 1696 1945 -12.8% 1696 1949 -13% 5807 6582 -11.8% 1668 1872 -10.9%
Sold 830 904 -8.2% 830 862 -3.7% 2684 2375 13% 79 193 -59.1%
Pended 692 778 -11.1% 692 524 32.1% 2411 2093 15.2% 133 239 -44.4%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change
Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold) 137 136 0.7% 137 126 8.7% 137.02 126.64 8.2%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change
Avg CDOM 59 52 13.5% 59 64 -7.8% 53 57 -7%
Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 98 98 0% 98 97 1% 98 97 1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change 1/1/2017 – 1/8/2017 12/1/2016 – 12/8/2016 % Change
Avg. Active Price 362 362 0% 362 338 7.1% 361 341 5.9% 365 365 0%
Avg. Sold Price 276 277 0.4% 276 262 5.3% 278 265 4.9% 271 270 0.4%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Oct. 2015 – Dec. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago TODAY STATS
Dec. 16 Nov. 16 % Change Dec. 16 Dec. 15 % Change Oct. 16 to Dec. 16 Oct. 15 to Dec. 15 % Change 1/1/2017 – 1/8/2017 12/1/2016 – 12/8/2016 % Change
Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 2 2.2 -9.3% 2 2.3 -13.3% 2.2 2.8 -21.6% 21.1 9.7 117.5%

 

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*All reports are published January 2017, based on data available at the end of December 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Posted on January 12, 2017 at 5:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

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