Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2016

Inventory Very Low but the Market Keeps Growing

If there is one predictable thing about real estate, it’s that it is unpredictable.  It’s easy to predict that our market is growing and that a relatively strong economy and insanely low interest rates (3.1%!!) would drive home sales.  It is also easy to predict that this strong demand would lead to the very low inventory levels we are seeing now. What defies prediction is that prices, while rising, are doing so at a moderate and for the most part sustainable pace.  One would expect with an average days on market of only 42 and only 1.9 months of available inventory that we would be witnessing the birth of a gi-normous bubble. I don’t believe that is the case. By all accounts June was another very strong month for the Boise Real Estate Market.  While inventories are very very low for this time of year the number of closed sales grew 6.1% to 1179. Our inventory at 2240 is 15% below a year ago.  The average price per square foot rose to $133, a moderate 4.7% increase while the average sale price reached a new record (not adjusted for inflation) of $284K.  This represents a 6.8% gain from a year ago.  Impressive but not really bubble-esque.  New construction continues to surge to try to meet the demand and sales of listed new homes were up 42.2% to 229 in June.  The one chink in the armor might be that pending sales while still significantly above last year dipped from May’s numbers.  This shift typically happens a little later in the summer but it may be a function of inventory being so tight.  Distressed sales meanwhile have essentially disappeared—they were only 1.3% of closed sales in June.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1179

+6.1

100

2240

-15.0

100

$133

+4.7

$284K

+6.8

42

-10.6

1.9

Non Distress

1162

+8.1

98.6

2194

-13.0

97.9

$134

+4.7

$286K

+6.3

41

-10.9

1.9

REO

11

-45.0

0.9

14

-53.3

0.6

$104

+13.0

$174K

+3.0

23

-55.8

1.3

Short Sale

5

-64.3

0.4

31

-60.3

1.4

$115

+11.7

$267K

+42.0

266

+87.3

6.2

New Construction

229

+42.2

19.4

829

+2.5

37.0

$145

0.0

$333K

-2.1

98

+1.0

3.6

 

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal* observed a recent national trend that, “Slowing sales of high-end homes increases inventory, giving potential buyers more bargaining power.” It showed that while inventories of lower priced homes have shrunk, the number of high-end homes available has surged and buyers are finding more wiggle room in the prices for these homes.  I took a “snap shot” look to see if the same applies to our market (it seldom does) and found that in this case it does apply, sort of.  While sellers of homes priced at $500K or less got on average 99% of their original list price in the higher end the percentage dropped as low as 95%.  And there are 48.7% more million dollar plus listings than there were a year ago.  But sales have surged regardless of price and the number of sales (8) of million dollar plus listings  was up 100% in June albeit on a small base. And not only are more high end homes selling but the really high-end ones are selling faster as well.  So while there is general agreement with the article I think the more basic idea  that there are more buyers in the lower end of the market and even though there are more homes in that price range demand is such that most sellers are able to find a buyer to pay at or above their asking price. In our market the overwhelming majority of homes selling (67.6%)  are in the lower end of the market—under $300K.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE 2016 BY PRICE

*Does not include manufactured homes

 

Price

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

Sales Price vs Original List Price %

0-299,999

797

+0.5%

67.6

1248

-20.1

55.7

$122

+7.0

34

-20.9

1.6

  99

300-499,999

302

+19.4

25.6

689

-12.3

30.8

$139

+3.7

51

-3.8

1.9

  99

500-999,999

72

+18.0

6.1

245

-2.0

10.9

$162

-5.3

92

+31.4

3.4

  96

1,000,000+

8

+100.0

0.7

58

+48.7

2.6

$204

+10.3

65

-76.6

7.3

  95

Total

1179

+6.1

100

2240

-15.0

100

$133

+4.7

42

-10.6

1.9

  99

 

Looking forward for the next 6 month it seems interest rates are going to remain low and demand for housing in Boise will remain high due to overall economics and in migration.  While there are some potentially significant layoffs possible at Micron this, while unfortunate for those directly affected, may actually be a good thing for the market if it adds some inventory. Please feel free as always to send me your comments and questions and thank you as always for your referrals.

*Martin, Anya (2016, June 17) More Room For Negotiation, The Wall Street Journal, pp M4

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

Cam Johnson– Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Apr. 2015 – Jun. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 16

May. 16

% Change

Jun. 16

Jun. 15

% Change

Apr. 16 to Jun. 16

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

% Change

7/1/2016 – 7/9/2016

6/1/2016 – 6/9/2016

% Change

For Sale

3746

3542

5.8%

3746

4654

-19.5%

10628

13339

-20.3%

3781

3415

10.7%

Sold

1812

1703

6.4%

1812

1659

9.2%

5056

4477

12.9%

332

395

-15.9%

Pended

1843

1933

-4.7%

1843

1512

21.9%

5576

4720

18.1%

418

605

-30.9%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Apr. 2015 – Jun. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 16

May. 16

% Change

Jun. 16

Jun. 15

% Change

Apr. 16 to Jun. 16

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

% Change

7/1/2016 – 7/9/2016

6/1/2016 – 6/9/2016

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

120

116

3.4%

120

111

8.1%

117.43

108.81

7.9%

122

119

2.5%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Apr. 2015 – Jun. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 16

May. 16

% Change

Jun. 16

Jun. 15

% Change

Apr. 16 to Jun. 16

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

% Change

7/1/2016 – 7/9/2016

6/1/2016 – 6/9/2016

% Change

Avg CDOM

48

55

-12.7%

48

58

-17.2%

53

63

-15.9%

50

53

-5.7%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

99

99

0%    

99

97

2.1%

99

98

1%

98

99

-1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Apr. 2015 – Jun. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 16

May. 16

% Change

Jun. 16

Jun. 15

% Change

Apr. 16 to Jun. 16

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

% Change

7/1/2016 – 7/9/2016

6/1/2016 – 6/9/2016

% Change

Avg. Active Price

281

281

0%    

281

251

12%

278

249

11.6%

280

285

-1.8%

Avg. Sold Price

237

228

3.9%

237

220

7.7%

229

211

8.5%

247

243

1.6%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Apr. 2015 – Jun. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 16

May. 16

% Change

Jun. 16

Jun. 15

% Change

Apr. 16 to Jun. 16

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

% Change

7/1/2016 – 7/9/2016

6/1/2016 – 6/9/2016

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.1

2.1

0%    

2.1

2.8

-25%

2.1

3

-30.2%

11.4

8.6

32.4%

 

 

 

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*All reports are published July 2016, based on data available at the end of June 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on July 13, 2016 at 12:58 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

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