Boise Real Estate Market Report for April 2016

Inventory Down To 2.1 Months And Sales And Prices Still Rising

 

As the Boise Real Estate market ramps up for the summer selling season inventories continue to be unusually low and with demand high, prices are rising.

There were 1972 homes for sale on April 30 which is over 100 more than were available a month ago but is 15% lower than a year ago.  As a result based on the current rate of sales in the last quarter we only have 2.1 months of inventory.  6 months is considered a stable market while anything lower than 3 is a strong Seller’s market, which is what we are currently experiencing. By comparison, in the same quarter 10 years ago, in 2006, widely considered to be the year the market peaked, we had 3.9 months of inventory. The average days on market  (# of days from listing date to pended date, not closing date) is 50 indicating homes are selling  relatively quickly with many selling in a couple of days or less in the more desired areas.  And lower priced homes are selling the fastest as I pointed out in last month’s report. The low inventory is being driven both by strong demand and some sellers who are waiting to list because prices are rising and they want to maximize their return.

 

Sales increased 6.5% in April  versus a year ago to 947, while sales in new construction shot up 52% to 187. We have experienced several years of consistent sales gains and in fact  we had a 16.7% higher number of closed sales  in the most recent quarter when compared to the peak year 10 years ago, but 30.4% less inventory than in 2006. So while the market is actually more active than at the peak buyers have way less houses to choose from.  As a result prices continue to rise.

 

The average sales price at $267K is 9.0% above 2015, while the average price per square is 6.5% ahead of last year at $131. Comparing the most recent quarter to 10 years ago it appears that prices have returned to at or just below the peak.  The average sales price for the quarter is flat versus 10 years ago while if you look at the 12 month period from May 2015 to April 2016 versus the same months from 2006-7 (9 years ago) the average $/sf  is still 5.7% lower. I have always considered that the summer of 2006 was the absolute peak so being this close to those numbers  would suggest that if prices continue to rise for the next few months we should eclipse the 2006 peak.  If you look at the average sales price we are even closer.  For the most recent quarter vs 2006 the average sales price is actually 4.7% higher but in the same 12 month periods used above we are still off by 1.5%.  We’ve come a long way Baby!

 

But where do we go from here? There has been plenty of discussion on the differences between the current market and the previous peak centered around the vast changes to lending practices and increased accountability by all players in the transaction.  In theory these will prevent a similar bubble from forming, and although current price trends bear watching, so far at least in our market I feel we have avoided that. Interest rates remain low and demand in our market both organic and due to in-migration remains strong.  There is always a cycle to real estate though so I think it would be naïve to think that things will just keep going strong, but I think it will take a major macro-economic or political event to trigger a massive slow down in the Boise market.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

947

+6.5

100

1972

-15.0

100

$131

+6.5

$267K

+9.0

50

-10.7

2.1

Non Distress

915

+7.9

96.6

1924

-13.3

97.6

$132

+6.5

$270K

+9.3

48

-11.1

2.1

REO

21

-27.6

2.2

13

-48.0

0.7

$105

+4.0

$188K

-13.0

67

-1.5

0.6

Short Sale

9

0.0

1.0

33

-54.2

1.7

$102

0.0

$182K

+5.8

245

+39.2

3.7

New Construction

187

+52.0

19.8

803

+3.9

40.7

$143

+9.2

$331K

+13.4

120

-1.6

4.3

 

 

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions, and feel free to share this report with anyone you think might be interested.  And don’t forget those referrals—they are the lifeblood of my business and are very much appreciated.

 

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

 

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Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Feb. 2015 – Apr. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Apr. 16

Mar. 16

% Change

Apr. 16

Apr. 15

% Change

Feb. 16 to Apr. 16

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

% Change

5/1/2016 – 5/9/2016

4/1/2016 – 4/9/2016

% Change

For Sale

1972

1868

5.6%

1972

2321

-15%

5651

6546

-13.7%

1949

1765

10.4%

Sold

947

846

11.9%

947

889

6.5%

2420

2209

9.6%

222

235

-5.5%

Pended

1238

1041

18.9%

1238

1117

10.8%

3131

2818

11.1%

400

343

16.6%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Feb. 2015 – Apr. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Apr. 16

Mar. 16

% Change

Apr. 16

Apr. 15

% Change

Feb. 16 to Apr. 16

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

% Change

5/1/2016 – 5/9/2016

4/1/2016 – 4/9/2016

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

131

128

2.3%

131

123

6.5%

129.43

121.74

6.3%

131

132

-0.8%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Feb. 2015 – Apr. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Apr. 16

Mar. 16

% Change

Apr. 16

Apr. 15

% Change

Feb. 16 to Apr. 16

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

% Change

5/1/2016 – 5/9/2016

4/1/2016 – 4/9/2016

% Change

Avg CDOM

50

68

-26.5%

50

56

-10.7%

61

68

-10.3%

56

53

5.7%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

99

99

0%    

99

98

1%

99

97

2.1%

99

99

0%    

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Feb. 2015 – Apr. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Apr. 16

Mar. 16

% Change

Apr. 16

Apr. 15

% Change

Feb. 16 to Apr. 16

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

% Change

5/1/2016 – 5/9/2016

4/1/2016 – 4/9/2016

% Change

Avg. Active Price

363

359

1.1%

363

336

8%

359

330

8.8%

366

363

0.8%

Avg. Sold Price

267

265

0.8%

267

245

9%

265

249

6.4%

259

260

-0.4%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Feb. 2015 – Apr. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Apr. 16

Mar. 16

% Change

Apr. 16

Apr. 15

% Change

Feb. 16 to Apr. 16

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

% Change

5/1/2016 – 5/9/2016

4/1/2016 – 4/9/2016

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.1

2.2

-4.5%

2.1

2.6

-19.2%

2.3

3

-23.6%

8.8

7.5

17.3%

 

 

 

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*All reports are published May 2016, based on data available at the end of April 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on May 10, 2016 at 2:41 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

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