Boise Real Estate Market Report for March 2016

Inventory Still Low But 1st Quarter was Strong for Boise Real Estate Market

The Boise (Ada County) real estate market had another strong month in March and finished what turned out to be a very strong first quarter. Closed sales at 827 in March, were up 8.1% from 2015 while sales for the whole quarter were up 9.5%. Pended sales are also way up indicate that the market should remain strong at least in the short term. For March pended sales were up 14.8% while for the quarter they were 13.1% ahead of last year. Low inventory continues to be the main factor preventing even stronger gains in sales.  There were 1868 homes available on March 31 which is -13.2%, while for the quarter the number of available properties fell 12.4%.  This translated into 2.3 months of inventory based on the rate of sales in March, while for the quarter we averaged 2.8 months of inventory which was a drop of 19.9% from 2015. 6 months of inventory is considered a stable market while anything below 3 months is a strong Seller’s market. Days on market have also been dropping and averaged 68 days in March which is 9.3% below a year ago, while for the quarter DOM dropped 9.0%. Bottom line is not only are there fewer homes for sale, they are also selling faster.

So while inventory is really low  and homes are moving quickly we continue to see only moderate increases in home prices.  While this seems to defy logic, it is great news. Prices in February appeared poised to take off and were very close to the level at which I consider the gains unsustainable  (+10%) and likely to result in a bubble.  But in March they backed off and while still positive, were much less indicative of a market that is overheating.  The average price per square foot in March was $129 which was flat versus February and up 4.9% from March 2015. For the quarter the average $/sf was up 6.5%.  The average sales price at $266K was up 3.5% for March and 5.6% for the quarter. Incidentally, the average sales price was 99% of the Seller’s initial asking price, a further indication of a strong  Seller’s market.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2016

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

827

+8.1

100

1868

-13.2

100

$129

+4.9

$266K

+3.5

68

-9.3

2.3

Non Distress

809

+12.7

97.8

1807

-11.5

96.7

$129

+3.2

$268K

+1.9

68

-8.1

2.2

REO

12

-57.1

1.5

16

-56.8

0.9

$110

+17.0

$168K

+1.2

28

-50.9

1.3

Short Sale

5

-73.7

0.6

40

-41.2

2.1

$97

+10.2

$161K

-2.4

177

+13.5

8.0

New Construction

189

+30.3

22.9

779

+2.9

41.7

$138

-2.1

$315K

-1.9

127

-2.3

4.1

A client asked if I could break down the inventory we do have by price level to see where the real pressure points lie in the market.  Not surprisingly, the lower the price the quicker it sells and the less inventory there is. What is interesting is that the months of available inventory stays pretty firmly in Seller’s market territory (4 months or less) all the way up to the $600-700K level.  Here is how it broke down:

Average Days on Market and Months of Inventory by Price

 

<150K

150-200

200-250

250-300

300-350

350-400

400-500

500-600

600-700

700-800

> 800K

Average Days on Market

36

51

64

79

74

120

84

98

110

97

28*

Months of Inventory

0.8

1.1

2.1

2.5

3.6

3.4

3.0

3.7

6.4

10.0

14.0

*2015 figure was 109 days

So while the market clearly favors Sellers especially at the low end of the market, buyers should not despair.  There may be less choices out there than they would like but it is still a pretty good time to buy as lending standards are easing slightly and interest rates remain very low—still around 4% or less.  There are signs nationally that the market may stagnate somewhat due to the lack of inventory and rising prices but in Boise for now, that doesn’t seem to be the case.  For one new construction has kicked into overdrive with lots of building going on both east and west of the city and the downtown condo market active again.  New construction sales, which had recently been lagging behind the re-sale market are leading the way now.  Sales of new (listed) homes surged 30.3% in March after a similar gain in February.  My guess is the number of build jobs/custom builds is on a similar trajectory.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  They are very much appreciated as are your referrals. Thanks!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

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Cam Johnson    

  –                          Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jan. 2015 – Mar. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Mar. 16

Feb. 16

% Change

Mar. 16

Mar. 15

% Change

Jan. 16 to Mar. 16

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

% Change

4/1/2016 – 4/7/2016

3/1/2016 – 3/7/2016

% Change

For Sale

1868

1811

3.1%

1868

2151

-13.2%

5486

6266

-12.4%

1755

1778

-1.3%

Sold

827

626

32.1%

827

765

8.1%

1949

1780

9.5%

138

165

-16.4%

Pended

1088

860

26.5%

1088

948

14.8%

2622

2318

13.1%

279

246

13.4%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Jan. 2015 – Mar. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Mar. 16

Feb. 16

% Change

Mar. 16

Mar. 15

% Change

Jan. 16 to Mar. 16

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

% Change

4/1/2016 – 4/7/2016

3/1/2016 – 3/7/2016

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

129

129

0%    

129

123

4.9%

127.98

120.15

6.5%

132

125

5.6%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Jan. 2015 – Mar. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Mar. 16

Feb. 16

% Change

Mar. 16

Mar. 15

% Change

Jan. 16 to Mar. 16

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

% Change

4/1/2016 – 4/7/2016

3/1/2016 – 3/7/2016

% Change

Avg CDOM

68

70

-2.9%

68

75

-9.3%

71

78

-9%

61

74

-17.6%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

99

98

1%

99

97

2.1%

98

97

1%

99

98

1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Jan. 2015 – Mar. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Mar. 16

Feb. 16

% Change

Mar. 16

Mar. 15

% Change

Jan. 16 to Mar. 16

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

% Change

4/1/2016 – 4/7/2016

3/1/2016 – 3/7/2016

% Change

Avg. Active Price

359

354

1.4%

359

334

7.5%

352

321

9.7%

363

355

2.3%

Avg. Sold Price

266

262

1.5%

266

257

3.5%

264

250

5.6%

265

264

0.4%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jan. 2015 – Mar. 2016)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Mar. 16

Feb. 16

% Change

Mar. 16

Mar. 15

% Change

Jan. 16 to Mar. 16

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

% Change

4/1/2016 – 4/7/2016

3/1/2016 – 3/7/2016

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.3

2.9

-20.7%

2.3

2.8

-17.8%

2.8

3.5

-19.9%

12.7

10.8

17.6%

 

 

 

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*All reports are published April 2016, based on data available at the end of March 2016, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on April 12, 2016 at 4:33 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

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