Boise Real Estate Market Report for December 2015

2015 Finishes Strong And Was A Great Year For Boise Real Estate

Now that 2015 has come to a close we can take a look at how Boise Real Estate  did for the year as a whole.  The answer in one word: Great! December finished strong capping off one the better years in recent memory. Closed sales surged in a normally quiet time of year.  There were 814 closings in December, up 23.5%.  For the year as a whole there were 9963 closings an increase of 18.3% over 2014.  Inventories continue to be tight and were even tighter overall in 2015. There were 2154 homes available in December 2015 down 13.2% from December 2014.  For the year as a whole inventory was down 11.1%.  The average months of inventory ended the year at a very tight 2.4 months, while the average months of inventory for the year was 2.8 months, 26.6% below 2014.

It would be easy to assume with those kinds of number that prices would be spiraling out of control creating a new bubble like we saw in 2006-7.  So far, and we have been in a similar trend for a solid year now, this has not been the case.  Prices are up to be sure, but aren’t rising at what I would consider an unsustainable pace.  The average price per square foot ($127) was up a modest 1.6 % compared to December 2014 and for the year averaged $125/sf,  a 4.8% increase.  I would definitely consider those to be encouraging numbers especially given how tight inventory is.  Similarly, the average sales price was $269,000 (+5.9%) while for the year the average sales price was $259,000 up 7.5% from 2014.  Still very reasonable numbers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

814

+23.5

100

1949

-8.5

100

$126

+5.9

$264K

+4.3

63

-19.2

2.4

Non Distress

791

+30.5

97.2

1874

-6.1

96.2

$126

+4.1

$267K

+2.3

62

-17.3

2.4

REO

7

-81.6

0.9

17

-58.5

0.9

$82

`-8.9

$192K

+22.3

46

-40.3

2.4

Short Sale

15

0.0

1.8

57

-38.0

2.9

$104

+6.1

$186K

+2.8

126

-33.3

3.8

New Construction

195

+41.3

24.0

921

+6.1

47.3

$143

+0.7

$345K

+3.0

89

-16.0

4.7

New construction, which earlier in the year had been somewhat of a drag on the market ended the year with a late surge.  195 new homes were sold in December, a 41.3% increase from December 2014.  24% or almost one in four homes sold was new construction last month.  This compares to only 17.5% for the year as a whole so this is encouraging news for builders.  Sales for the year (1752) were up a healthy 13.4%  while prices rose moderately.  The average price per square foot at $141, was up 4.7% while the average sales price ($329,000) rose 5.4%. Affordability of a new home does continue to be an issue for many buyers or I think these numbers would be even stronger.

The scope of this report is generally limited to Ada County, but I thought some of you might share my curiosity about whether the trends in Boise are similar in Canyon County (Nampa/Caldwell etc) for the year as a whole.  Turns out they are pretty similar on a smaller base.  There were 3946 sales in Canyon County in 2015 an increase of 14.6% while the number of homes for sale slipped 18.3% to 13,092. Average price per square foot rose 7.7% to $92 while the average sales price climbed to $164,000, +7.2%.

The outlook for the first half of 2016 would indicate more of the same as the factors affecting our market look to remain relatively static.  Interest rates, despite a move by the Fed in December, remain very low, unemployment is also low and we continue to see in-migration by those attracted to the quality of life and relative affordability of Boise.  It is still a Seller’s market but Buyer’s should not be afraid to make a move as interest rates may go up, and at least for the short term price look to continue rising.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments.  And much appreciation and many thanks for your continued support in the form of referrals.  They are the foundation of my business.

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

 


Prepared for you by:

 

Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

For Sale

1949

2154

-9.5%

1949

2130

-8.5%

6582

7416

-11.2%

1769

1980

-10.7%

Sold

814

663

22.8%

814

659

23.5%

2321

1987

16.8%

57

185

-69.2%

Pended

544

748

-27.3%

544

473

15%

2123

1745

21.7%

148

140

5.7%

December 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in December 2015 is 1949 units. It is down 9.5% compared to the last month and down 8.5% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in December 2015 is 814 units. It is up 22.8% compared to the last month and up 23.5% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in December 2015 is 544 units. It is down 27.3% compared to the last month and up 15% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Sold) (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price (Sold)

126

127

-0.8%

126

119

5.9%

126.65

121.16

4.5%

131

125

4.8%

December 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in December 2015 is $126. It is down 0.8% compared to the last month and up 5.9% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

63

58

8.6%

63

78

-19.2%

56

70

-20%

57

67

-14.9%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

98

-1%

97

96

1%

97

96

1%

97

98

-1%

December 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Rising**

Continuous Days on Market in December 2015 is 63. It is up 8.6% compared to the last month and down 19.2% compared to the last year.

December 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady**

Sold/Original List Price % in December 2015 is 97%. It is down 1% compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

338

344

-1.7%

338

313

8%

341

313

8.9%

340

349

-2.6%

Avg. Sold Price

264

268

-1.5%

264

253

4.3%

266

250

6.4%

261

268

-2.6%

December 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in December 2015 is $338. It is down 1.7% compared to the last month and up 8% compared to the last year.

December 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in December 2015 is $264. It is down 1.5% compared to the last month and up 4.3% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Oct. 2014 – Dec. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Dec. 15

Nov. 15

% Change

Dec. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Oct. 15 to Dec. 15

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

% Change

1/1/2016 – 1/7/2016

12/1/2015 – 12/7/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.4

3.2

-24.6%

2.4

3.2

-24.8%

2.8

3.7

-24.1%

31

10.7

189.7%

December 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in December 2015 is 2.4. It is down 24.6% compared to the last month and down 24.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published January 2016, based on data available at the end of December 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 2:46 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

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