Boise Real Estate Market Report for July 2015

BOISE REAL ESTATE MARKET STAYS HEALTHY BUT RATE RISE LOOMS

 

An article last week in the Idaho Statesman painted a pretty gloomy picture of the Boise Real Estate Market and predicted a drop in the market starting… now.  I guess that sells papers, but from my vantage point the reality is quite a bit different and the outlook considerably more positive. First of all, right now the market here is very healthy.  Sales are up and while inventory is tight, prices are rising consistently but not recklessly. For the umpteenth time in the last 4 years the consensus is that interest rates are going to rise but no one really knows how soon or how much.  That simmering volcano known as the Federal Reserve has recently shown signs, albeit erratic, of rumbling to life and causing rates to rise and that definitely will affect the market when it happens.  In the long term, depending on how far rates go, some buyers will get priced out of the market by higher payments.  Sales will drop as a result which will eventually cause downward pressure on prices. However in the short term rising rates, or a least the credible threat of such, may actually stimulate the market as Buyers scramble to get in before their purchasing power begins to evaporate.  Sellers on the other hand, convinced the market is peaking and headed for collapse will rush to list now. Either way, for the short term at least, the market looks to remain robust.  And in the long term the loss of some portion of the buyer pool to higher rates may be more than offset in our market by the continued strong in-migration of Buyers, many flush with cash from selling property in more expensive places like California and Washington.

 

Here’s a rundown of the July numbers. Closed sales at 1030 were up 14.2% from a year ago.  While this is smaller than the 25% gain we saw in June, Pending sales were up 28.4% in July indicating we should have strong closings in August and September.  Inventory continues to be low with only 2.6 months available at the current rate of sale. The average days on market also is low at 49 days (-5.8%), indicating homes are selling quickly.

 

Given this scenario of strong demand and very low inventory prices should surging, raising fears of a bubble.  So far in 2015 that has not been the case.  In July the average price per square foot was $126, a 4% increase from a year ago.  The average sales price meanwhile was up 9.5% to $266,000.  While that 9.5% rise is approaching what I would consider un-sustainable appreciation, year to date the average sales price has risen a much more reasonable 5.6%.  One other interesting wrinkle in the price data is in new construction.  The average sales price ($316K) actually fell 3.7% while the average price per square foot rose 4.3% to $142.  This would suggest that builders are building smaller homes in response to tepid sales. New construction has lost 3 or 4 percentage points of market share in the last year and in July had a share of 16.8% of all houses sold while new home inventory was almost 30% of the homes available. Distressed sales meanwhile represented only 2.5% of all sales, the lowest since before the last market peak in 2006. Only 3.8% of the available homes are considered distressed, also a post 2006 low.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JULY 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1030

+14.2

100

2638

-13.3

100

$126

+4.0

$266K

+9.5

49

-5.8

2.6

Non Distress

1005

+18.1

97.6

2534

-11.3

96.1

$127

+3.4

$268K

+7.6

47

-7.8

2.5

REO

12

-64.7

1.2

20

-69.2

0.8

$84

-6.1

$130K

-6.5

70

+20.7

1.7

Short Sale

13

-7.1

1.3

78

-30.4

3.0

$91

-6.7

$182K

+9.6

160

+8.1

6.0

New Construction

173

+3.6

16.8

784

-2.4

29.7

$142

+4.3

$316K

-3.7

93

+27.4

4.5

 

So while interest rates and global economic factors always bear watching I continue to see a strong market here in Boise at least in the short.  It is a sellers market for sure but buyers should also not hesitate because their buying power may be reduced if rates do go up soon.  Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comments and referrals.

 

 

 

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

Current Boise Real Estate Market Data

 

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Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

For Sale

2638

2636

0.1%

2638

3042

-13.3%

2587

2936

-11.9%

2474

2501

-1.1%

Sold

1030

1112

-7.4%

1030

902

14.2%

1036

875

18.4%

82

156

-47.4%

Pended

1021

999

2.2%

1021

793

28.8%

1024

842

21.6%

185

161

14.9%

July 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in July 2015 is 2638 units. It is up 0.1% compared to the last month and down 13.3% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in July 2015 is 1030 units. It is down 7.4% compared to the last month and up 14.2% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in July 2015 is 1021 units. It is up 2.2% compared to the last month and up 28.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

126.1

127

-0.7%

126.1

121.3

4%

125.4

120.5

4.1%

130

125

4%

July 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in July 2015 is $126. It is down 0.7% compared to the last month and up 4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

49

47

4.3%

49

52

-5.8%

50

53

-5.7%

36

48

-25%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

July 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend Remains Steady**

Continuous Days on Market in July 2015 is 49. It is up 4.3% compared to the last month and down 5.8% compared to the last year.

July 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in July 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

335

332

0.9%

335

310

8.1%

332

314

5.7%

338

334

1.2%

Avg. Sold Price

266

265

0.4%

266

243

9.5%

262

244

7.4%

265

267

-0.7%

July 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in July 2015 is $335. It is up 0.9% compared to the last month and up 8.1% compared to the last year.

July 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in July 2015 is $266. It is up 0.4% compared to the last month and up 9.5% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (May. 2014 – Jul. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jul. 15

Jun. 15

% Change

Jul. 15

Jul. 14

% Change

May. 15 to Jul. 15

May. 14 to Jul. 14

% Change

8/1/2015 – 8/6/2015

7/1/2015 – 7/6/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.6

2.4

8.4%

2.6

3.4

-23.7%

2.5

3.4

-26.8%

30.2

16

88.6%

July 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in July 2015 is 2.6. It is up 8.4% compared to the last month and down 23.7% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published August 2015, based on data available at the end of July 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 1:31 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

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