Boise Real Estate Market Report for June 2015

Unit Sales Continue to Surge,  Prices Up Too.

In June the Boise real estate market saw a 25.4% surge in closed sales over 2014 and a 13% jump from May.  There were 1092 closed sales in Ada County, the busiest month of 2015 so far by a long shot. This caps a several month long run of double digit increases in year over year sales.  There is a sign that the trend might moderate slightly in the next couple months because pending sales, a good indicator of future closings, peaked in April and have dropped slightly in each of the last 2 months.  This would suggest fewer closings in July and August.

Meanwhile inventories continue to be tight and there is some concern that as a result prices will spike.  So far that is not really happening, although prices are up moderately.  There were 2636 homes listed as active in Ada County which is off 10.6% from a year ago.  This translates into 2.4 months of inventory at the current rate of sales.  Anything below three months of inventory is considered tight.  Furthermore the average days on market has dropped to 48 (-7.7% vs 2014).  As recently as January the average days on market was as high as 83 meaning homes are on average selling 42% faster than they were in January.  Some but not all of that is due to normal seasonal fluctuation in the market.

Prices are rising, but at least for now at a manageable and sustainable (I hope) pace.  The average price per square foot was $127 in June, up 6% from a year ago.  The average sales price was $267,000 an 8.1% increase over 2014.  If we can stay in the 5-8% range of annual appreciation I think the market will stay healthy.  Anything over 10% and I will be concerned that we may see a new bubble forming.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JUNE  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

1092

+25.4

100

2636

-10.6

100

$127

+6.0

$267K

+8.1

48

-7.7

2.4

Non Distress

1056

+29.7

96.7

2521

-8.3

95.6

$128

+5.4

$270K

+7.6

47

-6.0

2.4

REO

20

-47.4

1.8

30

-55.9

1.1

$92

+0.1

$169K

+7.0

52

-22.4

1.5

Short Sale

14

-17.6

1.3

78

-37.1

3.0

$103

+3.7

$187K

-15.8

142

+34.0

5.6

New Construction

160

+1.9

14.7

809

+2.4

30.7

$144

+7.4

$340K

+4.3

97

+5.4

5.1

 

One other area of concern that I have noted in recent months is new construction.  As recently as a year ago new construction had blossomed to over 20% of all sales are being left for dead during the recession.  That number has now slipped to only 14.7% of total volume and while the market as a whole saw a 25.4% increase in unit sales, sales of new homes were only up 1.9%.  The biggest reason is price.  There is a roughly $85,000 (34%) difference in the average sales price of a new home versus resale and that gap means some buyers are not able to afford a brand new home. One disclaimer in discussing new construction using the data available to me is that it only includes properties listed in the MLS not private sales and build jobs where the property is never listed. The only way to get true data would be to analyze the building permits issued by each municipality and the county, a long time consuming process.

For the short term, looking at the market as a whole, expect more of the same.  Interest rates have inched up to around 4% and the national economic recovery is tepid but here in Boise there seems to be a continuing demand for housing due to a relatively strong job market and the influx of out of staters both working age and retirees.  As always your comments, questions, and referrals are welcome.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

 

 

 


Prepared for you by: CamJohnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

umber of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

For Sale

2636

2486

6%

2636

2948

-10.6%

2481

2769

-10.4%

2466

2376

3.8%

Sold

1092

963

13.4%

1092

871

25.4%

981

816

20.2%

184

247

-25.5%

Pended

1033

1060

-2.5%

1033

873

18.3%

1070

857

24.9%

258

302

-14.6%

June 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in June 2015 is 2636 units. It is up 6% compared to the last month and down 10.6% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in June 2015 is 1092 units. It is up 13.4% compared to the last month and up 25.4% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in June 2015 is 1033 units. It is down 2.5% compared to the last month and up 18.3% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

127.1

123

3.3%

127.1

119.9

6%

124.5

119.1

4.5%

126

124

1.6%

June 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in June 2015 is $127. It is up 3.3% compared to the last month and up 6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

48

55

-12.7%

48

52

-7.7%

53

57

-7%

44

49

-10.2%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

June 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in June 2015 is 48. It is down 12.7% compared to the last month and down 7.7% compared to the last year.

June 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in June 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

332

330

0.6%

332

316

5.1%

332

317

4.7%

337

336

0.3%

Avg. Sold Price

267

255

4.7%

267

247

8.1%

256

241

6.2%

273

258

5.8%

June 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in June 2015 is $332. It is up 0.6% compared to the last month and up 5.1% compared to the last year.

June 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in June 2015 is $267. It is up 4.7% compared to the last month and up 8.1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Apr. 2014 – Jun. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

Jun. 15

May. 15

% Change

Jun. 15

Jun. 14

% Change

Apr. 15 to Jun. 15

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

% Change

7/1/2015 – 7/8/2015

6/1/2015 – 6/8/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.4

2.6

-7.7%

2.4

3.4

-29.5%

2.5

3.4

-26.5%

13.4

9.6

39.5%

June 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in June 2015 is 2.4. It is down 7.7% compared to the last month and down 29.5% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published July 2015, based on data available at the end of June 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on July 15, 2015 at 12:49 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

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