Boise Real Estate Market Report for May 2015

STRONG TRENDS CONTINUE IN MAY FOR BOISE REAL ESTATE MARKET

May was another strong month for the Boise Real Estate Market.  While unit sales continue to surge (+10.8%) and inventory is tight prices are rising at a simmer not a boil.  All good news given that with demand as high as it is and inventory at only 2.6 months one would expect prices to be ballooning. Many, including myself, see the potential for a bubble to form due to the lack of inventory in relation to demand but so far the market is maintaining pretty good balance.  In fact, the average price per square foot at $123 is up only 2.0% (below the rate of inflation) and the average sales price ($255K) is up 5.4%. In new construction, where prices had been rising faster, the average price per square foot was up 2.1% and average sales price ($316K) was up only 1.3% from a year ago.

The other good news this month was that for the first time in almost 10 years distressed sales made up less than 3% of the market, 2.7% to be exact.  This is an impressive milestone given that just 4 years ago distressed sales were over 50% of the market in Ada County, and over 70% in Canyon County.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MAY  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

944

+10.8

100

2486

-11.8

100

$123

+2.0

$255K

+5.4

56

-3.1

2.6

Non Distress

918

+15.5

97.2

2369

-9.5

95.3

$124

+1.6

$258K

+4.0

54

+5.9

2.6

REO

14

-56.2

1.5

33

-58.2

1.3

$77

-18.7

$176K

+6.0

72

+28.6

2.4

Short Sale

11

-54.2

1.2

81

-28.9

3.3

$93

-2.2

$194K

+27.6

166

+3.8

7.4

New Construction

153

+7.7

16.2

788

+0.3

31.7

$137

+2.1

$316K

+1.3

122

+18.4

5.2

 

A lot of people are asking how the market compares to the last peak, which I peg as being late summer of 2006.  It will be September before I can truly compare this year to the peak but I am able to look at the last three months (March, April, and  May) and get a pretty good idea of where we stand. Last month I took a broad look at the market and said that volume had recovered and in some cases exceeded that of 2006 but prices were still lagging slightly behind.  It seems that with current trends by the end of the year we could be back at 2006 prices (albeit not adjusted for 9 years of inflation).  This month, thanks to some great questions from Kristi Larson at Thornton-Oliver-Keller,  I took a look at how the market compares at various price points. It is interesting to see that volume in the low and high and of the market is way above 2006 levels but in the heart of the market ($200-400K) we are not back to those levels.  The table below illustrates this.  As far as prices go, looking only at the average price per square foot, we still have some ground to make up across the board.  And given that there has been some inflation overall in the last nine years we definitely are not back to 2006 levels as far as price.  As we get closer to the actual peak months and can compare apples to apples I will continue to keep an eye on where we stand.

ADA COUNTY COMPARISON 2006 VS. 2015 BY PRICE RANGE

 

Price Range

 

0-149,999

150-199,999

200-249,999

250-399,999

400-599,999

600+

ADA COUNTY

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

2006

2015

%Chg

# Sold by Quarter

61

121

+98.4

218

245

+12.4

171

166

-2.9

259

248

-4.2

51

64

+25.5

13

21

+61.5

# For Sale by Quarter

98

146

+49.0

425

451

+6.1

675

417

-38.2

1245

833

-33.1

408

295

-27.7

278

178

-36.0

# Pended by Quarter

47

140

+197.9

200

294

+47.0

161

199

+23.6

256

299

+16.8

68

100

+47.1

13

29

+123.1

Average $/SF

120

107

-10.8

123

109

-11.4

123

112

-8.9

127

124

-2.4

153

143

-6.5

193

180

-6.7

 

“Quarters” are the most recent three months (March-May) for each year.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions, comment, and referrals.  Have a great summer.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

For Sale

2486

2321

7.1%

2486

2818

-11.8%

2319

2575

-9.9%

2439

2200

10.9%

Sold

944

889

6.2%

944

852

10.8%

866

735

17.8%

190

165

15.2%

Pended

1114

1123

-0.8%

1114

859

29.7%

1062

829

28.1%

270

254

6.3%

May 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in May 2015 is 2486 units. It is up 7.1% compared to the last month and down 11.8% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in May 2015 is 944 units. It is up 6.2% compared to the last month and up 10.8% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in May 2015 is 1114 units. It is down 0.8% compared to the last month and up 29.7% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

122.8

122.9

-0.1%

122.8

120.4

2%

123

117.5

4.7%

124

122

1.6%

May 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in May 2015 is $123. It is down 0.1% compared to the last month and up 2% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Avg CDOM

56

56

0%    

56

54

3.7%

62

64

-3.1%

49

66

-25.8%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

98

98

0%    

98

99

-1%

May 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in May 2015 is 56. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 3.7% compared to the last year.

May 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in May 2015 is 98%. It is the same as compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Avg. Active Price

330

335

-1.5%

330

317

4.1%

333

314

6.1%

335

340

-1.5%

Avg. Sold Price

255

245

4.1%

255

242

5.4%

252

236

6.8%

258

246

4.9%

May 2015 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in May 2015 is $330. It is down 1.5% compared to the last month and up 4.1% compared to the last year.

May 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in May 2015 is $255. It is up 4.1% compared to the last month and up 5.4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Mar. 2014 – May. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

  

TODAY STATS

 

May. 15

Apr. 15

% Change

May. 15

May. 14

% Change

Mar. 15 to May. 15

Mar. 14 to May. 14

% Change

6/1/2015 – 6/7/2015

5/1/2015 – 5/7/2015

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.6

2.6

0%    

2.6

3.3

-21.2%

2.7

3.5

-22.8%

12.8

13.3

-3.8%

May 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in May 2015 is 2.6. It is the same as compared to the last month and down 21.2% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published June 2015, based on data available at the end of May 2015, except for the today stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on June 13, 2015 at 9:43 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

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