Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for April 2015

ANOTHER STRONG SHOWING IN APRIL FOR BOISE REAL ESTATE

 

April was another very strong month for the Boise Real Estate Market.  In a nutshell, both volume and prices are up and inventory, while getting tight, is still high enough that it isn’t having an obvious negative effect on sales volume or causing prices to spike. That is sales volume was up a whopping 18.6% and the average price was up a very reasonable 5.6% from a year ago. At least at this point it seems the usual spring/summer increase in listings is able to satisfy the higher demand.  The danger is if inventory can’t keep up we will see the volume growth held back by Buyers not having enough choices and prices will accelerate more steeply.  Classic symptoms of “overheating” and the possible prelude to a  dreaded bubble.  So inventory bears watching.  There were 2321 homes available in April which is down 8.7% from 2014 and at the current rate of sales we have 2.7 months of inventory.  Anything under 3 and heads start to turn but it is not a crisis…yet.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR APRIL  2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

859

+18.6

100

2321

-8.7

100

$123

+5.4

$245K

+5.6

56

-13.8

2.7

Non Distress

819

+26.8

95.3

2220

-5.5

95.7

$124

+4.0

$247K

+3.3

54

-11.5

2.7

REO

29

-35.6

3.4

25

-64.8

1.1

$101

+8.1

$215K

+31.1

68

-4.2

0.9

Short Sale

8

-72.4

0.9

72

-40.0

3.1

$102

+12.7

$169K

-3.4

167

+17.6

9.0

New Construction

117

+6.4

13.6

773

+3.3

33.3

$131

+0.8

$290K

-5.5

126

+15.6

6.6

 

Where is all the demand coming from?  Some of it I would call “organic” meaning people that are already here but have recently either founds the means or the confidence to buy.  These are people that may have been on the fence but have decided now is the time to buy before prices and possibly interest rates rise.  We are also starting to see buyers who have been through a short sale or foreclosure becoming eligible to buy again as the waiting periods required after a distressed sale are starting to expire.  But a large part of the growth in demand is coming from in-migration to Idaho, a trend that was somewhat muted during the Great Recession but appears to be enjoying a renaissance.  There was a very interesting article in the Idaho Statesman last week about where people are coming from and where Idahoans are moving to. They used DMV records from drivers licenses to compile the data and while admittedly this misses those who fail to get a new license when they move it is still a pretty good indicator of what is happening. The typical person moving to Idaho comes from either California, Oregon, or Washington and there are a lot more of them coming in then there are Idahoans moving out. The article suggests that 43% of all population growth in 2014 was due to in-migration as opposed to births or aliens landing.  Since newborns and aliens typically don’t get drivers licenses they used data from the census bureau to calculate that. From just those three states in 2014 18,241 people traded in their licenses versus 5424 moving to them. That is a net in-migration of 12,817 in 2014. A large number of these people (42.1%) moved to Ada (29.3%) or Canyon (12.8%)Counties.  And of the Californians that came last year while the largest group were 21-30 years old (27%), surprisingly 20.5% were 61 or older, a 52% increase from 2011.  More and more people are choosing to come to Idaho to either retire or be near children or grandkids that are already here.

 

Another question I have been getting a lot lately is, “Where is the market compared to before the recession?”. We have certainly come a long way since the market bottomed out in about 2010 but are we back to the pre-recession peak?  Arguably, the peak came in mid 2006 but in order to compare data from this year with 2006 I choose to examine the most recent three months that we have data for in both years—February-April.  The answer I found is that the market isn’t quite there yet.  Volume wise things look very good.  Closed sales 2014 vs 2006 were up 5.1% while pended sales are up 39.8% and available inventory is down 19.4%.  We averaged 3 months of inventory this year versus 3.9 months for the same period in 2006. On the price side of the equation the average price per square foot was $129 in 2006 vs $121 now a 6.2% decrease.  The average sales prices was $252K then and is $249K now, a 1.2% difference. Buyers should thus appreciate that both prices and interest rates are generally still lower than they were just prior to the peak. If current market trends continue that will not be true for much longer.  One more reason to buy now.

Your questions, comments, and referrals are always welcome.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

 

 

Facts and Trends

TM

Published May 2015*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

For Sale

2321

2151

7.9%

2321

2542

-8.7%

2182

2374

-8.1%

Sold

859

763

12.6%

859

724

18.6%

726

604

20.2%

Pended

1173

961

22.1%

1173

838

40%

962

727

32.3%

April 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in April 2015 is 2321 units. It is up 7.9% compared to the last month and down 8.7% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in April 2015 is 859 units. It is up 12.6% compared to the last month and up 18.6% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in April 2015 is 1173 units. It is up 22.1% compared to the last month and up 40% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

122.9

123.2

-0.2%

122.9

116.6

5.4%

121.7

115

5.8%

April 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in April 2015 is $123. It is down 0.2% compared to the last month and up 5.4% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Avg CDOM

56

75

-25.3%

56

65

-13.8%

68

73

-6.8%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

97

1%

98

98

0%    

97

97

0%    

April 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in April 2015 is 56. It is down 25.3% compared to the last month and down 13.8% compared to the last year.

April 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in April 2015 is 98%. It is up 1% compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Avg. Active Price

335

334

0.3%

335

319

5%

330

308

7.1%

Avg. Sold Price

245

257

-4.7%

245

232

5.6%

249

230

8.3%

April 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in April 2015 is $335. It is up 0.3% compared to the last month and up 5% compared to the last year.

April 2015 Average Sold Price is Neutral**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in April 2015 is $245. It is down 4.7% compared to the last month and up 5.6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Apr. 15

Mar. 15

% Change

Apr. 15

Apr. 14

% Change

Feb. 15 to Apr. 15

Feb. 14 to Apr. 14

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.7

2.8

-3.5%

2.7

3.5

-22.8%

3

3.9

-22.9%

April 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in April 2015 is 2.7. It is down 3.5% compared to the last month and down 22.8% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

 

*All reports are published May 2015, based on data available at the end of April 2015. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on May 13, 2015 at 3:52 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

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