Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for March 2015

Boise Real Estate Market is on a Roll!

I’m going to keep it short but sweet this month, but, wow, it’s hard not to be enthusiastic about how the first quarter has turned out for the Boise Real Estate Market. Closed sales surged 20.2% to 755 in March after and 18% year over year gain in February. Pending sales were up 31% from 2014 indicating we should have solid performances in April and possibly May as well.  Inventories meanwhile are somewhat lower than last year.  There were 2151 homes for sale last month a drop of 9% from 2014. This equates to 2.8 months of inventory at the current rate of sale and is the first time we have dropped below 3 months of inventory in quite some time. Tight inventories usually indicate upward pressure on prices and we are seeing evidence of this in the last couple months.  After trending to flat or slightly down last fall  prices have sprung back to life and the average sales price was up 11.3% in March after being up 9.4% versus 2014 in February.

While these are very healthy numbers I have some concern that if tight inventories push these price increase percentages into the mid-teens the market may over heat in relation to the available pool of qualified buyers. Appraisals will become an issue as well since appraisers have to work off of historical sales data and so appraised values tend to lag behind if market prices rise steeply.  I am already hearing stories from other agents in my office of difficulties with appraisals coming in low even though there is a buyer(s) ready and willing to pay the agreed upon price. I am hopeful that the market will sort this out on its own before the gap between market prices and appraised values becomes too large.  At the risk of sounding alarmist, this kind of disconnect coupled with other factors could lead to a dreaded market correction at some point.  We are certainly nowhere near that point now and should feel lucky that the market is so healthy heading into the peak sales months. Distressed sales continue to wither away (6% of all sales) and new construction, which was on pretty shaky ground last year,  also seems to have regained some momentum as evidenced by the 21.8% increase in closed sales in March.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR MARCH 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

755

+20.2

100

2151

-9.0

100

$123

+7.6

$257K

+11.3

75

-2.7

2.8

Non Distress

710

+26.6

94.0

2041

-5.6

94.9

$125

+6.6

$263K

+11.4

74

0

2.9

REO

27

-27.0

3.6

37

-47.1

1.7

$94

+6.7

$168K

+2.4

59

-14.5

1.4

Short Sale

18

-40.0

2.4

68

-46.5

3.2

$88

-9.0

$170K

-20.2

158

+13.7

3.8

New Construction

145

+21.8

19.2

757

-3.4

35.2

$141

+6.0

$320K

+4.6

130

+16.1

5.2

 

While the Boise market has sprung to life there is concern that eventually the years long streak of extremely low interest rates will come to an end and this will slow home sales both nationally and locally.  The Fed has basically stated they intend to raise bond rates which indirectly affects mortgage rates,  but every time they seem to have enough confidence in the economy to begin the process there is a hiccup.  Recent job growth numbers provided the latest hiccup and seem to have put the Fed in wait and see mode once again so it remains to be seen if and when rates will finally rise to the 6+% that many have predicted for years.  That being said, based on everything I have seen lately, Buyers have no reason to wait if they are ready to buy, and Sellers who want to sell shouldn’t be hesitant either.  The current market conditions are such that a year from now the odds are that things won’t be as good for Buyers and/or Sellers.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions and comments and thank you for your past and future referrals!  Have a great Spring!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

   

Published April 2015*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jan. 2014 – Mar. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Mar. 15

Feb. 15

% Change

Mar. 15

Mar. 14

% Change

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

Jan. 14 to Mar. 14

% Change

For Sale

2151

2074

3.7%

2151

2365

-9%

2089

2245

-6.9%

Sold

755

555

36%

755

628

20.2%

590

513

15%

Pended

1036

761

36.1%

1036

791

31%

805

623

29.2%

March 2015 is a Seller's market**

Home For Sale in March 2015 is 2151 units. It is up 3.7% compared to the last month and down 9% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in March 2015 is 755 units. It is up 36% compared to the last month and up 20.2% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in March 2015 is 1036 units. It is up 36.1% compared to the last month and up 31% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Jan. 2014 – Mar. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Mar. 15

Feb. 15

% Change

Mar. 15

Mar. 14

% Change

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

Jan. 14 to Mar. 14

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

123.2

117.7

4.7%

123.2

114.5

7.6%

120.2

114.1

5.3%

March 2015 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in March 2015 is $123. It is up 4.7% compared to the last month and up 7.6% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Jan. 2014 – Mar. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Mar. 15

Feb. 15

% Change

Mar. 15

Mar. 14

% Change

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

Jan. 14 to Mar. 14

% Change

Avg CDOM

75

77

-2.6%

75

77

-2.6%

78

78

0%    

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

97

0%    

97

97

0%    

97

96

1%

March 2015 Average Continuous Days on Market trend Remains Steady**

Continuous Days on Market in March 2015 is 75. It is down 2.6% compared to the last month and down 2.6% compared to the last year.

March 2015 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Rising**

Sold/Original List Price % in March 2015 is 97%. It is the same as compared to the last month and the same as compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Jan. 2014 – Mar. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Mar. 15

Feb. 15

% Change

Mar. 15

Mar. 14

% Change

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

Jan. 14 to Mar. 14

% Change

Avg. Active Price

334

319

4.7%

334

304

9.9%

321

299

7.4%

Avg. Sold Price

257

244

5.3%

257

231

11.3%

250

229

9.2%

March 2015 Average For Sale Price is Appreciating**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in March 2015 is $334. It is up 4.7% compared to the last month and up 9.9% compared to the last year.

March 2015 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in March 2015 is $257. It is up 5.3% compared to the last month and up 11.3% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jan. 2014 – Mar. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Mar. 15

Feb. 15

% Change

Mar. 15

Mar. 14

% Change

Jan. 15 to Mar. 15

Jan. 14 to Mar. 14

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2.8

3.7

-24.1%

2.8

3.8

-26.6%

3.5

4.4

-20.6%

March 2015 is a Seller's market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in March 2015 is 2.8. It is down 24.1% compared to the last month and down 26.6% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published April 2015, based on data available at the end of March 2015. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on April 14, 2015 at 5:30 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

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