Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for January 2015

Inventory is dropping and prices are increasing steadily…the outlook for 2015 is good.

Not to mention that interest rates are back down below 4%!

January 2015 was another solid month for the Boise Real Estate Market with all the major indices headed in the right direction or at least remaining fairly stable within the “healthy” zone.  While sales volume was flat compared to a year ago, pending sales, an indicator of future closings,  were up 24.3%. This may give us some momentum heading into the typically more active Spring selling period. Meanwhile, the average price per square foot was up 3.6% while the average sales price rose 6% to $246,000.  Those numbers are “comforting”.  In the last two years we have seen price trends go from as high as plus 18% year over year, which is unsustainable and scarily reminiscent of the pre-collapse bubble 10 years ago, to flat just a couple months ago. The second straight month of price increases of 6-8% compared to a year ago is reassuring especially when inventory is also slowly dropping.

There were 2041 active listings in January, a 5.3% drop from 2014 and at the current rate of sales this translates to 4.5 months of inventory (compared to 4.8 months last year at this time). We typically see a surge of homes listed in April and May but current inventories should be low enough to absorb that with little impact to the market especially as sales ramp up into the summer months as well. Given the near record low interest rates and a state unemployment rate that has dropped to 3.7% (the lowest since 2005) there is  good reason to believe the market will continue to grow for at least the first half of 2015.  The long term consensus on interest rates seems to be that there isn’t one.  Many are saying that the long predicted rise in rates to 6% or above will finally come this year, while at least one economist who spoke in Boise recently predicts they will stay in the 4% range. It’s hard to have a ton of confidence that rates will rise since the predictions have been so consistently wrong the last few years. Bottom line is it is still a great time to buy while there is cheap money out there for qualified buyers.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR JANUARY 2015

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

449

0.0

100

2041

-5.3

100

$119

+3.6

$246K

+6.0

82

+5.1

4.5

Non Distress

406

+1.5

90.4

1902

-1.3

93.2

$122

+4.5

$255K

+8.1

78

+8.3

4.7

REO

24

-27.3

5.3

48

-23.8

2.4

$95

+8.4

$173K

+6.8

65

-17.7

2.0

Short Sale

19

+18.8

4.2

87

-46.3

4.3

$83

-33.9

$155K

-43.0

192

-7.2

4.6

New Construction

109

-0.9

24.3

847

+6.1

41.5

$137

+3.9

$320K

+12.3

89

-14.4

7.8

New construction continues to be an area of concern as sales have been dropping, albeit only 1.9% in January, and prices continue to shoot up at twice the rate of the market as a whole (12.3% vs 6.0%).  Also of concern is the disproportionate percentage of inventory that are new homes versus the percentage of new homes sold.  There were 847 new homes listed in January which is 41.5% of all homes listed while 109 sold—24.3% of the total. There are 7.8 months of inventory at this rate of sale compared to 4.5 months for the overall market.  There seems to be a disconnect between the price point of what  the most able and willing buyers are willing to spend and the price point of the typical new home being built.  As an example the average new home price of $320K is about $100K higher than the average resale price.  Looking at median prices the difference is even more striking.  The median resale price in January was $190K while the median price of a new home was $309K a difference of almost $120K or 63%.  I think the bigger builders are sensing this and I am seeing more discounting going on as they shuffle their plans to start building a slightly lower price point home.  We’ll have to see how this plays out in the coming months, but I hope we can move towards a more stable healthy new home market.

Please feel free to contact me with your comments and questions, and your referral are always greatly appreciated.

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Facts and Trends

TM

Published February 2015*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Nov. 2013 – Jan. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jan. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Jan. 15

Jan. 14

% Change

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

Nov. 13 to Jan. 14

% Change

For Sale

2041

2130

-4.2%

2041

2155

-5.3%

2217

2282

-2.8%

Sold

449

655

-31.5%

449

449

0%    

566

557

1.6%

Pended

654

473

38.3%

654

526

24.3%

563

528

6.6%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Nov. 2013 – Jan. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jan. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Jan. 15

Jan. 14

% Change

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

Nov. 13 to Jan. 14

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

118.8

119.5

-0.6%

118.8

114.7

3.6%

121.2

114.6

5.8%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Nov. 2013 – Jan. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jan. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Jan. 15

Jan. 14

% Change

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

Nov. 13 to Jan. 14

% Change

Avg CDOM

82

78

5.1%

82

78

5.1%

75

68

10.3%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

96

1%

97

96

1%

96

96

0%    

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Nov. 2013 – Jan. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jan. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Jan. 15

Jan. 14

% Change

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

Nov. 13 to Jan. 14

% Change

Avg. Active Price

310

312

-0.6%

310

293

5.8%

310

289

7.3%

Avg. Sold Price

246

253

-2.8%

246

232

6%

251

234

7.3%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Nov. 2013 – Jan. 2015)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jan. 15

Dec. 14

% Change

Jan. 15

Jan. 14

% Change

Nov. 14 to Jan. 15

Nov. 13 to Jan. 14

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

4.5

3.3

36.9%

4.5

4.8

-6.3%

3.9

4.1

-4.9%

 

 

 

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*All reports are published February 2015, based on data available at the end of January 2015. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on February 11, 2015 at 3:43 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

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