Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for December 2014

2014 ended on a positive note for the Boise Real Estate Market.  In December both sales volume and prices were up versus 2013.  This is especially encouraging because for most of 2014 sales volumes had decreased year over year and the price increases of the previous 2 years had vanished by October only to be resuscitated somewhat in November, and now, in December.  There were 631 closed sales in Ada County in December a 1.1% increase from 2013 and a 7.5% increase from November 2014, bucking the usual seasonal slide. December and January are typically the two slowest months of the year so it is a bit unusual for sales to increase from November to December.  Inventory (2130) was off 3.9% from a year ago and slid 14.1% from November, which is a more typical seasonal trend. And while the months of available inventory, based on the current rate of sales, dropped from 4.4 to 3.4 months between November and December, the average days on market jumped up from 68 to 78. This may seem  a bit odd but these two measures of inventory and market activity do not directly correlate with each other so it is possible for them to trend in different directions as is currently the case.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2014

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

631

+1.1

100

2130

-3.9

100

$120

+5.0

$254K

+9.0

78

+9.9

3.4

Non Distress

579

+4.3

91.8

1995

+1.1

93.7

$122

+3.8

$262K

+8.7

75

+13.6

3.4

REO

38

0.0

6.0

41

-42.3

1.9

$90

+7.3

$157K

-1.9

77

-8.3

1.1

Short Sale

14

-53.3

2.2

92

-45.9

4.3

$99

+12.2

$186K

+5.7

185

+23.3

6.6

New Construction

136

-2.2

21.6

868

+8.1

40.8

$142

+12.8

$335K

+19.2

105

+11.7

6.4

Prices showed pretty solid gains across the board with total average price per square foot up 5% to $120/sf, while the average sales price jumped 9.0% from 2013 to $254,000.  Of some concern is the rapid rise in the prices of new homes.  The average sales price for new construction was up 19.2% to $335,000. As was the case earlier in 2014 when prices for new construction also surged, some buyers are priced out of new homes hurting sales. At least partially for this reason, sales of new construction have dropped consistently throughout the year, although December’s 2.3% decline was relatively modest.  Another tidbit that is probably making a few people squirm is that while new construction accounted for 21.6% of sales in December it represented 40.8% of the homes listed for sale.  That is a pretty significant disconnect that may cause some pain for certain builders in 2015.

Speaking of 2015, everyone is wondering where the market goes from here.  Will interest rates stay low?  In the last few weeks they have once again defied predictions and dropped below 4%.  Will loosening lending standards boost the market or create another round of defaults down the road?  There has been a renaissance of low down payment loan products lately and the rate on certain types of PMI has been relaxed. Where will prices head?  Most people think they will largely stay the course, not shifting dramatically one way or the other.  Will new appraisal guidelines for certain type of loans wreak havoc or go mostly unnoticed? Depends on who you talk to. How will the local economy and job market come into play? We have had some high profile job losses (HP, call centers) and some small victories as well (new plant in Kuna to hire 600).  The influx of out of state buyers coming to the area for life style and/or retirement reasons shows no sign of letting up. Home prices have risen allowing many who were underwater to sell, or at least keep their homes but have wages risen enough to keep from chipping away at the pool of buyers who can afford a home? Hard to say because although sales were down for most of 2014, they were up in 2 of the last three months. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Please feel free to share your comments, questions, and above all your referrals and I wish all of you a healthy and prosperous 2015.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Facts and Trends

TM

Published January 2015*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Oct. 2013 – Dec. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Dec. 14

Nov. 14

% Change

Dec. 14

Dec. 13

% Change

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

Oct. 13 to Dec. 13

% Change

For Sale

2130

2481

-14.1%

2130

2216

-3.9%

2472

2469

0.1%

Sold

631

586

7.7%

631

624

1.1%

651

626

4%

Pended

498

568

-12.3%

498

483

3.1%

592

579

2.2%

December 2014 is a Neutral market**

Home For Sale in December 2014 is 2130 units. It is down 14.1% compared to the last month and down 3.9% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in December 2014 is 631 units. It is up 7.7% compared to the last month and up 1.1% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in December 2014 is 498 units. It is down 12.3% compared to the last month and up 3.1% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Oct. 2013 – Dec. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Dec. 14

Nov. 14

% Change

Dec. 14

Dec. 13

% Change

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

Oct. 13 to Dec. 13

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

119.7

124.8

-4.1%

119.7

114

5%

121.3

115.6

4.9%

December 2014 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in December 2014 is $120. It is down 4.1% compared to the last month and up 5% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Oct. 2013 – Dec. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Dec. 14

Nov. 14

% Change

Dec. 14

Dec. 13

% Change

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

Oct. 13 to Dec. 13

% Change

Avg CDOM

78

67

16.4%

78

71

9.9%

70

61

14.8%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

96

96

0%    

96

95

1.1%

96

96

0%    

December 2014 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Rising**

Continuous Days on Market in December 2014 is 78. It is up 16.4% compared to the last month and up 9.9% compared to the last year.

December 2014 Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling**

Sold/Original List Price % in December 2014 is 96%. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 1.1% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Oct. 2013 – Dec. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Dec. 14

Nov. 14

% Change

Dec. 14

Dec. 13

% Change

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

Oct. 13 to Dec. 13

% Change

Avg. Active Price

312

308

1.3%

312

288

8.3%

312

289

8%

Avg. Sold Price

254

254

0%    

254

233

9%

249

238

4.6%

December 2014 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in December 2014 is $312. It is up 1.3% compared to the last month and up 8.3% compared to the last year.

December 2014 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in December 2014 is $254. It is the same as compared to the last month and up 9% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Oct. 2013 – Dec. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Dec. 14

Nov. 14

% Change

Dec. 14

Dec. 13

% Change

Oct. 14 to Dec. 14

Oct. 13 to Dec. 13

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3.4

4.2

-18.9%

3.4

3.6

-5.6%

3.8

3.9

-2.5%

December 2014 is a Neutral market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in December 2014 is 3.4. It is down 18.9% compared to the last month and down 5.6% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published January 2015, based on data available at the end of December 2014. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on January 16, 2015 at 4:55 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports | Tagged , , ,

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