Cam Johnson’s Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for June 2014

In many ways the Boise Real Estate market in June was much like it was in May: the number of homes sold dropped while prices and inventory continue to rise. The good news is that I see this as a continuation of the trend towards a more “normal” market, something we haven’t really seen for basically a decade.  While the rollercoaster we have all been on was both exhilarating and at times heartbreaking, a period of “normal” has a certain appeal.

The drop in sales in June wasn’t as dramatic as in the past few months however.  Overall closed sales in June were 859, off 2.5% from 2013, compared to around -8% each of the previous 2 months. Sales of non-distressed homes actually rose 2.2% while short sales dropped 69.6% based on only 17 sales and REO’s dropped 5.1% on 37 sales.  Distressed sales were only 6.3% of the market and 6.5% of inventory although the number of bank owned properties out there continues to rise stealthily albeit on a small base.  There were 68 REO’s for sale in June (+25.9). New construction sales numbers continue soft (-11.3%) even as prices for new construction soar (+16.8%).  Therein lies the problem—high prices are forcing buyers out of new construction into re-sale.

Prices overall continue to rise but at a much slower, and more sustainable, pace than last year.  The average overall sold price was $247,000 (+4.7%) and the average price per square foot was up 8.3% to $120/sf.  Price increases in the 5-8% range are both healthy and sustainable in my opinion especially given that inventories, while rising substantially, are also still well within what is considered the “healthy” range.  There were 2948 homes for sale in June, up 34% from a year ago.  That statistic taken alone might be cause for alarm until one sees that there is only 3.4 months of available inventory and the average days on market actually has dropped 8.8% from a year ago to 52 days.  Both those numbers look mighty solid.

 

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR June 2014

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

859

-2.5

100

2948

+34.0

100

$120

+8.3

$247K

+4.7

52

-8.8

3.4

Non Distress

803

+2.2

93.5

2748

+44.3

93.2

$122

+7.0

$252K

+3.3

50

0.0

3.4

REO

37

-5.1

4.3

68

+25.9

2.3

$93

+9.3

$159K

-11.2

65

+32.7

1.8

Short Sale

17

-69.6

2.0

124

-47.9

4.2

$99

+14.4

$222K

+37.0

106

-35.0

7.3

New Construction

157

-11.3

18.3

790

+45.8

26.8

$134

+13.1

$326K

+16.8

92

-7.1

5.0

 

What’s hot and what’s not.  Looking at both sales and prices by area within the county some interesting things pop up.  While overall average sales prices were up 4.7% in some areas prices dropped in June versus a year ago notably the Bench (-4.7%) and West Boise/Garden City (-1.6). sales volume however, rose in both areas, particularly the Bench (+50%).   Both these are typically the lowest priced parts of the county, while prices in traditionally more expensive areas went up significantly.  For example the average sales price in NE Boise was up 12.4% while sales actually dropped 8.6%.  This may reflect the large amount of new construction happening in the Harris Ranch area since we noted earlier that prices for new construction in general are way up but sales volume is very soft. Sales in other traditionally expensive areas like Eagle (5.4%) and the North End (5.9%) also showed solid price increases.  I also found it interesting that  both Meridian(-24.2%) and South Boise(-21.7%) had sharp drops in sales volume but increases in prices of 8.0% and 3.5% respectively.

Comparison of Sales and Price Trends by Area- Ada County June 2014 vs 2013

AREA

Change in # of Homes Sold

Change in Average Sales Price

North Boise

13.7

5.9

NE Boise

-8.6

12.4

SE Boise

37.1

3.9

Boise Bench

50.0

-4.7

South Boise

-21.7

3.5

West Boise/Garden City

7.1

-1.6

NW Boise

3.9

4.2

Eagle

5.7

5.4

Star

-5.6

5.4

Meridian

-24.2

8.0

Kuna

19.4

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall the outlook for the Boise real estate market continues to look good.  Interest rates remain low for qualified buyers and inventory is improving while prices are rising but not overheating the market. Sales while down slightly from a year ago are still much stronger than during the bust years. So like I suggested at the beginning of this report, maybe we are finally settling into what is a normal market.  I welcome your questions, comments, and as always your referrals.

Have a great summer!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

Current Boise Real Estate Market Data

Facts and Trends

TM

Published July 2014*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Apr. 2013 – Jun. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jun. 14

May. 14

% Change

Jun. 14

Jun. 13

% Change

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

Apr. 13 to Jun. 13

% Change

For Sale

2948

2818

4.6%

2948

2200

34%

2769

2020

37.1%

Sold

859

853

0.7%

859

881

-2.5%

812

855

-5%

Pended

904

864

4.6%

904

858

5.4%

869

911

-4.6%

June 2014 is a Neutral market**

Home For Sale in June 2014 is 2948 units. It is up 4.6% compared to the last month and up 34% compared to the last year.
Home Closed in June 2014 is 859 units. It is up 0.7% compared to the last month and down 2.5% compared to the last year.
Home Placed under Contract in June 2014 is 904 units. It is up 4.6% compared to the last month and up 5.4% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

Average Price per SQFT (Apr. 2013 – Jun. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jun. 14

May. 14

% Change

Jun. 14

Jun. 13

% Change

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

Apr. 13 to Jun. 13

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

120.1

120.4

-0.2%

120.1

110.9

8.3%

119.2

109.7

8.7%

June 2014 Average Sold Price per Square Footage is Neutral**

Average Sold Price per Square Footage in June 2014 is $120. It is down 0.2% compared to the last month and up 8.3% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Apr. 2013 – Jun. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jun. 14

May. 14

% Change

Jun. 14

Jun. 13

% Change

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

Apr. 13 to Jun. 13

% Change

Avg CDOM

52

54

-3.7%

52

57

-8.8%

57

58

-1.7%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

97

98

-1%

97

99

-2%

98

98

0%    

June 2014 Average Continuous Days on Market trend is Falling**

Continuous Days on Market in June 2014 is 52. It is down 3.7% compared to the last month and down 8.8% compared to the last year.

June 2014 Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady**

Sold/Original List Price % in June 2014 is 97%. It is down 1% compared to the last month and down 2% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady.

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Apr. 2013 – Jun. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jun. 14

May. 14

% Change

Jun. 14

Jun. 13

% Change

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

Apr. 13 to Jun. 13

% Change

Avg. Active Price

316

317

-0.3%

316

314

0.6%

317

316

0.3%

Avg. Sold Price

247

242

2.1%

247

236

4.7%

241

227

6.2%

June 2014 Average For Sale Price is Neutral**

Average For Sale Price (in thousand) in June 2014 is $316. It is down 0.3% compared to the last month and up 0.6% compared to the last year.

June 2014 Average Sold Price is Appreciating**

Average Sold Price (in thousand) in June 2014 is $247. It is up 2.1% compared to the last month and up 4.7% compared to the last year.

**Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral.

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Apr. 2013 – Jun. 2014)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jun. 14

May. 14

% Change

Jun. 14

Jun. 13

% Change

Apr. 14 to Jun. 14

Apr. 13 to Jun. 13

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3.4

3.3

3%

3.4

2.5

36%

3.4

2.4

42.3%

June 2014 is a Neutral market**

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales in June 2014 is 3.4. It is up 3% compared to the last month and up 36% compared to the last year.

**Buyer's market: more than 6 months of inventory based on closed sales. Seller's market: less than 3 months of inventory based on closed sales. Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory based on closed sales.

 

 

 

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*All reports are published July 2014, based on data available at the end of June 2014. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on July 10, 2014 at 3:52 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized

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