Boise Real Estate Market Report for January 2014

 

The Boise real estate market got off to a strong start in 2014 with the 2 major market indicators, number of homes sold and prices, both showing strong year over year results.  After slowing significantly last fall to below 2012 numbers, for the second straight month the number of homes sold in Ada County logged a double digit increase versus a year ago. January will still likely be the slowest month of the year with 431 homes sold, but that was +11.1% over 2013. Active inventory (2155 homes)  is also much higher than last year (+22.1%) but with 5 months of inventory and average days on market of 77 we are still well within the “normal” range and in fact most would say those numbers fall into the “healthy” range as well.  Total inventory has actually fallen each month since September but this is mostly a normal seasonal fluctuation.

Prices continue their strong showing against last year with the average sales price up 11.5% and the average price per square foot up 9.0%.  Month to month prices have fallen for 3 straight months and in January had dropped about 5% from October.  Prices are less seasonally driven than volume and at this time last year prices were steady to rising month to month.  While this bears watching I believe this is more a sign that, as hoped, the price curve is flattening somewhat to a more sustainable 6-10% annual rate down from the 16-18% rate that we saw in 2013.  Also interest rates which had flirted with 5% at times in the fall seem to have dropped back into the 4.375-4.5 range of late.  This should allow a small percentage of buyers back into the game but won’t have a major stimulus effect on sales or prices.

As noted last month, distressed sales have definitely suffered more than a flesh wound but seem to be crying “I’m not dead yet!” in true Monty Python style.  Short sales and REO (bank owned) properties made up nearly 11% of closed sales last month after slipping below 10% for a few months  in 2013.  Short sales continue to disappear with only 15 closed in January (-71.4%) and were only 3.5% of total sales. In fact the stats for them last month are all over the board  due to the data set being so small.  REO’s however continue to quietly slink their way back and 32 closed last month (+23.1%).  More telling, REO inventory rose 61.5% although there is still only 2 months of inventory at the current rate of sale. No reason to sound the alarm yet but with all the other trends so positive any increase in distressed sales tends to stick out.  We also need to remember that it wasn’t long ago when distressed sales were 50% or more of the market and even at this time last year they were still around 25% of the market.  We’ve come a long way, Baby!

New construction continues to enjoy a wonderful renaissance with 107 new homes sold in January (+35.4%).  It seemed as though when new construction began to gain steam in 2012 and 2013 that the price increases builders were able to realize fell short of the resale market.  Now prices of new homes seem to be rising in step with the overall market.  The average price per square foot rose 11% to $132 and the average sales price rose 11.7% to $286,000.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR January 2014

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

431

+11.1

100

2155

+22.1

100

$115

+9.0

$233K

+11.5

77

+6.9

5.0

Non Distress

384

+24.3

89.1

1928

+43.8

89.5

$116

+5.0

$237K

+5.3

71

+10.9

5.0

REO

32

+23.1

7.4

63

+61.5

2.9

$87

+2.8

$159K

+7.4

81

+42.1

2.0

Short Sale

15

-71.4

3.5

162

-57.6

7.5

$126

+57.7

$284K

+93.2

221

+70.0

10.8

New Construction

107

+35.4

24.8

798

+30.8

37.0

$132

+11.0

$286K

+11.7

102

+17.2

7.5

 

I remain cautiously optimistic for the Boise real estate market in 2014.  We seem to have some solid trends going as far as volume and prices are concerned.  More and more homeowners are emerging from years of being underwater and able to sell and/or think about trading up or down.  We are also seeing many who short sold or lost homes during the crisis return to creditworthiness as the mandatory time limits since their ”problem” have come and gone. Interest rates remain low and the job market seems relatively stable.  Barring some unpredictable macro- economic or political factor I think we should continue to see healthy inventories this spring with prices continuing to rise moderately.

I welcome your comments and questions and please feel free to share this information. If you know anyone who you think would appreciate receiving this report every month or who is considering buying or selling please ask them to contact me.  Also a warm thanks to all my past and present clients for making 2013 my best year since 2005!  As I start my 10th year in the Real Estate business I look forward to great things and if the rest of the year is anything like January and February have been I am on track for my best year ever. I couldn’t do it without each and every one of the people that have trusted my expertise, integrity and good business sense over the years. Thanks!

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

 

Posted on February 13, 2014 at 6:35 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized

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