Cam Johnson’s Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for December 2013

 

December sales were surprisingly robust after 4 months of normal seasonal declines.  There were 612 closed residential sales in Ada County for the month, an 11.7% increase over 2012.  Pending sales meanwhile jumped an encouraging 23.6% indicating January could be another strong month for sales.  Inventory at 3.6 months remains relatively tight but is +16.1% versus last year when there was seemingly nothing for sale.  So while I still think the market is gradually slowing down and the new lending rules that take effect this month could enhance that, overall volume seems to be healthy.  Given the time of year it is, I personally have seen more market activity in both land and residential than at any time in my 10 years in the business.  The latest rush of out of state buyers that began early in the year seems to be unaffected by the typical winter slowdown.

Prices also continue to rise although the gradual flattening of the curve that began a few months ago, much to my relief, seems to be continuing.  The average sales price in December was $234,000 up 10.9% while the average price per square foot was $114 up 10.1%.  These are very healthy increases by any measure but for most of the year they were in the 15-18% range, which most agree was unsustainable and led to widespread speculation about a second bubble.  The new lending rules mentioned above could put some downward pressure on prices as the feeling is fewer buyers will qualify and those that do will be able to spend somewhat less. More on the net effects of all the new, as yet not understood (at least by me), rules in the coming months.

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR DECEMBER 2013

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

                                                    

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

612

+11.7

100

2216

+16.1

100

$114

+10.1

$234K

+10.9

71

-14.5

3.6

Non Distress

543

+29.0

88.7

1973

+35.2

89.0

$118

+6.6

$242K

+6.1

66

0.0

3.6

REO

38

+72.7

6.2

71

+69.0

3.2

$84

+1.9

$160K

+10.3

84

+200

1.9

Short Sale

30

-70.9

4.9

170

-58.0

7.7

$89

+11.3

$176K

+11.4

150

-9.6

5.7

New Construction

136

+14.3

22.2

803

+28.7

36.2

$126

+7.9

$283K

+8.8

93

+13.4

5.9

 

One other noteworthy trend from December, that I touched on briefly in November, is the sharp increase in the number of REO’s which are both being listed and selling.  As the table above illustrates sales of REO’s were up 72.7% in December and inventory was up 69%.  Granted the base is small and REO’s are only 3.2% of the available inventory.  However, after dipping below 10% for a couple months after years in double digits, the percentage of all sales that were distressed went up to 11.9% versus 8.9% in November.  What is interesting is that short sales continue to shrink quickly but in many the cases the REO’s are replacing them.  So are banks pulling the trigger on foreclosure sooner and becoming less patient with short sellers or are other forces at work?  I need to poll some of my lender colleagues on this because I don’t have the answer.  Te recent increase in REOs isn’t a cause for full blown alarm though because the overall number of loans in default has dropped significantly in the past couple years and looks to be pretty steady for now.

So overall, with interest rates remaining historically very low, inventory up from a year ago and prices continuing to rises but at a more moderate clip, the outlook seems very positive for 2014.  Still a good time to buy if you qualify and steadily improving climate for sellers as well. If you or someone you know is considering buying or selling please don’t hesitate to contact me.  I love referrals! As always your questions and comments on the information presented in this brief report are greatly appreciated.  Here’s to a great 2014 for all of us!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on January 21, 2014 at 2:47 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Monthly Real Estate Market Reports, Uncategorized

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