Cam Johnson’s Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for November 2013

The gradual slowdown that began in August continued in November and for the second straight month the number of closed sales was lower than in 2012. There were 581 closed sales in November a 4% drop from 2012.  Pending sales, an indicator of future closings,  were well ahead of last year though (+18.3%) indicating that the seasonal drop in closed sales that usually is at its lowest in January may not be quite as deep this year.  Inventory, after climbing for six straight months dropped 8.8% from October to November but was still 20.7% ahead of last year.  We are finally pretty consistently seeing 4+ months of inventory which is closer to the 6 months that most consider a “stable” market.  Average days on market, while inching up for the third straight month to 57 days is still well below last year (-19.7%) and  has remained below 60 days since May.  So while things have slowed down noticeably I tend to think what we are actually seeing is a gradual return to a more “normal”, or at least more sustainable market.

Prices continue to go up although the curve is starting to moderate somewhat consistent with the return to “normalcy” that I alluded to above. The average price per square foot at $114 is up 12.5% from 2012 and the average sold price of $235,000 is up 13%.  Still very healthy numbers, but earlier in the year and as recently as last month these percentage gains were in the 16-20% range not 12-13%.  While short sales and REO/Bank owned properties only make up 8.7% of all closed sales their prices rose 25.9% and 22.0% respectively—basically twice the rate at which overall prices increased, albeit off lower base numbers. Interestingly enough, while the inventory of short sales (192) was down 57%, the inventory of REO property (76) shot up 85.4%.  While not too significant yet, this trend bears watching.  Does the phantom inventory exist or are the banks just foreclosing on properties rather than dragging out a short sale? Too soon for me to tell.

The other trend I have my eye on is new construction.  After arising from the dead and helping to drive the momentum of the market over the last year or so things seem to be slowing down in this segment faster than in the re-sale market. In October and November the number of new construction sales dropped 15.6% and 18.6% respectively  while the number of new construction homes listed for sale rose 20.3% in October and 21.8% in November versus 2012. Anecdotally I am still hearing that many builders have a back log of build job orders but many of the same builders have been actively building spec homes again and this may be contributing to the sharp rise in inventory of new homes (7.3 months currently).

SUMMARY BOISE (ADA COUNTY) MARKET STATS FOR NOVEMBER 2013

*Does not include manufactured homes **see detailed graphs below for more information.

 

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

581

-4.0

100

2476

+20.7

100

$114

+12.5

$235K

+13.0

57

-19.7

4.3

Non Distress

530

+12.3

91.2

2204

+41.6

89.0

$116

+7.5

$241K

+6.6

53

-14.5

4.2

REO

27

-28.9

4.6

76

+85.4

3.1

$94

+21.0

$183K

+22.0

55

+34.1

2.8

Short Sale

24

-73.9

4.1

192

-57.0

7.8

$91

+20.6

$175K

+25.9

133

0

8.0

New Construction

105

-18.6

18.1

771

+21.8

31.1

$126

+4.9

$282K

+6.4

67

-28.0

7.3

 

Looking ahead to 2014 for both buyers and sellers I think the big “macro” market issues to watch are going to be interest rates and the slew of new lending rule changes that are due to take effect in January.  It is still too early to tell the impact they will have on Buyers ability to qualify, but most everyone who has studied them thinks that it will not only reduce the amount many buyers can qualify for but will also disqualify some buyers completely.  Needless to say this could put some downward pressure on the market both in terms of prices and number of sales.

In the meantime best wishes to all of you for a wonderful holiday season with friends, family, and loved ones, and a fantastic 2014!

Your comments questions and, most of all, your referrals are always much appreciated.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Posted on December 17, 2013 at 3:39 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized

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