Cam Johnson’s Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for October 2013

In October the one Boise Real Estate Market  stat that jumps off the page is that closed sales were off 4.8% from 2012 after being ahead of 2012 by 21.5% in September.  What happened?  The question really should be, “What happened in 2012?”  A closer look at the graphs below show a divot in the curve in September 2012 and a corresponding spike in the curve in October 2012.  In short, September 2012 was particularly slow while October was much busier than the trend would have suggested.  So what this means for 2013 is that October’s sales being lower than a year ago is more a sign that our current market is “normal” this year (at least compared to last year) than that the bottom is starting to drop out.  If you look at the trend on the bar graph at the bottom of this report you will see what I mean.  In a “normal” year we expect sales to peak in the summer and then steadily drop to a low point in January, which is precisely what they are on track to do this year.  Last year for some reason that didn’t happen in October.

 

So I don’t believe there is reason for grave concern over the number of closed sales.  Yes, inventories are rising (+24.6%) and the months of available inventory are up to 4.2 but we are cycling out of a period of terribly tight inventory so I see the current numbers as a welcome relief.  Average days on market is still only 55 and most people would argue 70-90 is more normal. Prices continue to rise at a very healthy clip.  The average price per square foot in Ada County was $118, a 16.4% increase over 2012 and the average sales price rose 18.8% to $246,000. Distressed properties for the second month in a row were less than 10% of the closed sales, although the number of REO’s is creeping up a bit.  And new construction makes up almost a quarter of the market.  Spec homes, which completely disappeared for almost 5 years are back.  That may or may not be good news.  Builders tend to be better at reacting to the market than predicting it.

 

Boise (Ada County) Stats for October 2013 (Does not include manufactured homes) More details in the graphs below.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

641

-4.8

100

2716

+24.6

100

$118

+16.4

$246K

+18.8

55

-24.7

4.2

Non Distress

587

+10.1

91.6

2441

+45.2

89.9

$120

+12.8

$252K

+12.5

46

-23.3

4.2

REO

18

-56.1

2.8

72

+69.0

2.7

$84

+7.9

$159K

+6.7

83

+151.5

4.0

Short Sale

35

-64.3

5.5

201

-55.7

7.4

$93

+20.2

$198K

+40.4

189

+19.6

5.7

New Construction

141

-15.6

22.0

775

+20.3

28.5

$127

+9.9

$294K

+12.6

58

-31.8

5.5

 

Speaking of prices, its been a while since I took a look at where prices are moving the fastest and slowest.

 

Average Sales Price Comparison for Selected Areas in Ada County

 

AREA (MLS AREA)

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

% CHANGE VS 2012

North End (0100)

$337,000

+7.7

East Boise (0200)

$373,000

+6.9

SE Boise (0300)

$219,000

+5.8

Boise Bench (0400)

$158,000

+17.9

South & SW Boise (0500 & 0550)

$200,000

+13.6

W Boise & Garden City (0600-0700)

$197,000

+23.9

NW Boise (0800)

$256,000

+14.8

Meridian (1000-1030)

$237,000

+15.0

Eagle (0900)

$374,000

+26.4

Star (0950)

$287,000

+24.8

Kuna (1100)

$182,000

+37.9

Ada County Total

$246,000

+18.8

 

Not surprisingly, the areas that were hit the hardest in the downturn seem to be rebounding the fastest.  Wow, Check out Kuna! Clearly 37.9% annual appreciation is not sustainable nor is anything over 15% in my opinion, so we can only hope for a soft landing in those areas.  Those in the North and East Ends and SE Boise should be pretty comfortable with their numbers.

 

Overall the market remains relatively friendly to buyers despite the rapidly increasing prices.  Rising inventories mean more choices for buyers and interest rates seem to have stabilized in the still very attractive 4.5% range.  For sellers, rising prices are good news without a doubt.  I believe the biggest thing to affect our market in early 2014 is going to be the large number of lending changes due to be put in place.  There are numerous new regulations and guidelines coming down the road that have many lenders very anxious.  They haven’t all been finalized yet so most of the lenders I have talked to aren’t willing to hazard a guess at what the specific  effects may be other than to say: not good.  There have been many things proposed some of them downright scary but nothing set in stone. I will provide more specifics as they become available.

 

I hope everyone has a wonderful start to their Holiday Season and feel free to send me your comments, questions, and most of all, referrals.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

 

Posted on November 14, 2013 at 3:03 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized

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