Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for July 2013

The good news in July:

Sales were up 35.1%!

Average price per square foot up 12.1%!

Inventory up 9.2%!

Enough said…

Well maybe, but I have more to add for those interested in sticking around for a few minutes.

Closed sales in July at 946 were the highest for any month this year, in fact they were higher than for any month in years, as in several years.  Not only were they 35.1 % above 2012 they were up 46.4% from two years ago.  There is a very real chance we will go above 1000 closed sales in August which would be a benchmark last seen during the boom years last decade, I believe.

Prices to continue rise as well with the average price per square foot up to $114 versus $87 in 2011 (+29.5%).  The average sales price has shown similar gains. In 2013 it was $233K up 16.5%, while in 2011 it was only $177K,  31.6% lower than the current number.  What that means is that on average the same house that cost $177K in 2011 would cost you as a buyer over $50,000 more today.  That puts things in perspective for me!

The bit of good news that has me and many others most excited is that inventory is up and seems to be rising in excess of the normal seasonal summer increase.  The 2439 homes currently available is the most since October 2011.  What is a little more sobering is that after declining dramatically for well over a year the number of bank owned (REO) properties has been creeping up again in the last few month, albeit off a very small base. The number of REO’s for sale in July (58) was +61.1% from 2012 but sales of REO’s still only represented 3.6% of all sales. Is this the much feared “phantom inventory”?  Could be, but I welcome it at this point because the number of homes available in the price range where most REO’s are is very small, and demand is high as evidenced by this month’s 25.1% increase in the average sales price of bank owned properties.  Short sales on the other hand continue to decrease.  The number for sale was down 53.5% versus 2012 and is off 69.6% from 2011.

New construction continues to be very hot (# sold +24.3%)with the return of the spec home, a species at one time almost extinct.  I have heard through the grapevine that Corey Barton, the area’s largest builder,  has notified subcontractors that he intends to finish another 200 specs in the Treasure Valley this year, in addition to pre-sold build jobs.  That will definitely have an effect on inventory.

Ada County Market Stats for July 2013.  (Includes Single Family, Condos, Townhomes, but not Manufactured Homes)

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

946

+35.1

100

2439

+9.2

100

$114

+12.1

$233K

+16.5

51

-25.0

2.6

Non Distress

851

+53.1

90.0

2144

+27.3

87.9

$116

+8.4

$241K

+11.6

41

-28.1

2.5

REO

34

-12.8

3.6

58

+61.1

2.4

$93

+28.2

$154K

+25.2

88

+225.9

1.7

Short Sale

60

-42.9

6.3

237

-53.5

9.7

$92

+15.0

$169K

+15.8

177

+23.8

4.0

New Construction

179

+24.3

18.9

590

-7.2

24.2

$124

+9.4

$275K

+13.6

66

-39.4

3.3

 

Interest rates, after rising over a point in the last couple of months have backed off slightly and seem to have settled in around 4.5% for now.  These are still very attractive rates.  Rising rates and rising prices could (and probably should) dampen the market somewhat in the coming months.  In addition market wide and macro-economic factors could come into play.  For example, Micron recently announced 1500 worldwide job cuts.  It is unclear how many of those will be here in Idaho but it is likely to have some impact on our market.  I still believe even in the absence of those factors we will see trends moderate somewhat as we are going against increasingly strong year ago numbers compared to when the current trends started.

Please feel to contact me if you have any comments or questions, and thank you for the referrals!  You know who you are.

Detailed graphs for those interested are below.

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

View my profile on LinkedIn

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Facts and Trends

TM

Published August 2013*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson-Windermere Access Realty

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (May. 2012 – Jul. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jul. 13

Jun. 13

% Change

Jul. 13

Jul. 12

% Change

May. 13 to Jul. 13

May. 12 to Jul. 12

% Change

For Sale

2439

2200

10.9%

2439

2234

9.2%

2208

2192

0.7%

Sold

946

879

7.6%

946

700

35.1%

914

688

32.8%

Pended

881

868

1.5%

881

733

20.2%

892

737

21%

 

Average Price per SQFT (May. 2012 – Jul. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jul. 13

Jun. 13

% Change

Jul. 13

Jul. 12

% Change

May. 13 to Jul. 13

May. 12 to Jul. 12

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

113.7

110.9

2.5%

113.7

101.4

12.1%

112.2

100.6

11.5%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (May. 2012 – Jul. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jul. 13

Jun. 13

% Change

Jul. 13

Jul. 12

% Change

May. 13 to Jul. 13

May. 12 to Jul. 12

% Change

Avg CDOM

51

57

-10.5%

51

68

-25%

54

77

-29.9%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

99

-1%

98

97

1%

98

97

1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (May. 2012 – Jul. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jul. 13

Jun. 13

% Change

Jul. 13

Jul. 12

% Change

May. 13 to Jul. 13

May. 12 to Jul. 12

% Change

Avg. Active Price

307

314

-2.2%

307

280

9.6%

313

279

12.2%

Avg. Sold Price

233

236

-1.3%

233

200

16.5%

233

205

13.7%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (May. 2012 – Jul. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

Jul. 13

Jun. 13

% Change

Jul. 13

Jul. 12

% Change

May. 13 to Jul. 13

May. 12 to Jul. 12

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

3

3

3%

3

3

-19.2%

2

3

-24.2%

 

 

 

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*All reports are published August 2013, based on data available at the end of July 2013. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

 

Posted on August 14, 2013 at 1:55 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized

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