Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for May 2013

May was another impressive month for the Boise real estate market. Sales were up, prices were up, and even inventory was up! While still below last year’s levels, there were  1984 active listings in May, over 100 more homes for sale than in April. Part of the rise in inventory is the normal Spring seasonal increase but after watching inventory actually drop from March to April, the gains in May are reassuring.  We still are running very tight though with only a 2.3 month supply of homes available.  Six months of inventory is considered a stable market.

A big reason that number is so low is because people are buying homes like crazy.  There were 871 closed sales in Ada County in May, an astounding 37.2% increase from 2012.  May’s numbers even surpassed the peak month of 2012, August, by almost 14%. While overall sales were up 37.2% the number of short sales (-42.7%) and REO’s (-51.1%) continue to dwindle and they collectively only accounted for 10.3% of the total sales. New construction now has almost twice that volume (19.7% of total) with 172 new homes sold in May.

Prices also continue to show very healthy gains, however, things thankfully have moderated slightly. We are starting to go head to head with some pretty strong 2012 number so as many, myself included, had predicted the percentage gains are starting to level out a bit.  That being said, the average sales price was up 8.5% in May.  If you recall a few months ago the percentage gain was around twice that and everyone cringed thinking another bubble was here.  While there is some danger of the market overheating, two factors may keep us from going there.  One interest rates have started to rise—over ½ a point in the last month or so.  This reduces people’s buying power and forces some buyers out of the game.  Secondly, lending standards are much tighter now than they were during the free for all period 8-10 years ago.  This will sharply reduce the number of people able to get loans and down the road mean less likely defaults out there.  If the number of buyers drops it stands to reason that upward pressure on prices will also drop. That’s not to say that prices can’t rise beyond the true value of the market but I think overall we are in a much more stable scenario than we were in 2005-2006.

 

Ada County stats for May 2013.  See graphs below for more information.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

871

+37.2

100

1984

-6.8

100

$112

+11.9

$230K

+8.5

53

-42.4

2.3

Non Distress

779

+65.4

89.4

1695

+8.1

85.4

$114

+6.8

$239K

+2.6

46

-45.9

2.2

REO

23

-51.1

2.6

44

+46.7

2.2

$85

+6.1

$135K

-15.6

54

+10.2

1.9

Short Sale

67

-42.7

7.7

244

-53.7

12.3

$83

+14.0

$154K

+2.7

141

+5.2

3.6

New Construction

172

+24.6

19.7

568

-9.1

28.6

$120

+7.2

$283K

+13.7

78

-44.3

3.3

 

Given tight inventory I thought it might be interesting to see just how tight it is by price segment.  Overall the average Days on Market in May was 53, while 80-90 is more typical. Looking just at non-distressed property the number drops to 46, while for short sales, not surprisingly, it jumps to 141.  I often talk about the sweet spot of the market,  the price point where things are really flying.  It seems like lately that has been in the $150-175K range as far as number of sales.  Looking at the available non-distressed inventory by price range however it becomes clear that while there may be more volume in the sweet spot, the tightest inventory is in the price point just below it–$100-149K. The average days on market is only 21 and there is 0.7 months of inventory.  I thinks it’s fair to say houses in that price range are literally jumping off the shelves right now. Predictably the numbers go up as the prices rise.  But they are still quite respectable all the way up to the $750K point.  For homes priced between $500-750K, there is 5 months of inventory and the average days on market is 72.  Remember that a “stable” market typically has around 6 months of inventory.

 

Non Distressed Inventory by Price

 

Price

Days On Market

% Change from 2012

Months of Inventory

% Change from 2012

$0-99,999

41

+10.8

1.4

+18.4

$100,000-149,999

21

-68.2

0.7

-65.6

$150,000-199,999

47

-49.5

1.8

-43.5

$200,000-299,999

49

-50.0

2.8

-20.6

$300,000-399,999

65

-23.5

2.5

-37.2

$400,000-499,999

50

-54.1

2.8

-30.4

$500,000-749,999

72

-4.0

5.0

-20.2

$750,000+

84

-65.1

13.3

-64.1

All prices

46

-45.9

2.2

-34.6

 

As we head into what promises to be a very hot summer for real estate I would encourage Buyers to buy now since both prices and interest rates are on the increase.  For sellers, especially those who have resisted listing because they were underwater on their homes, it may be time to look at the market again and see if prices have risen to the point that selling makes dollars and sense. 

As always your comments, questions, and most of all, referrals are welcomed.  Have a great summer!

 

 

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Check out my listings here: http://www.camjohnsonhomes.com

 

View my profile on LinkedIn

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Facts and Trends

TM

Published June 2013*

Location:

  ADA COUNTY

Price Range:

  $0 – No Limit

SQFT Range:

  0 – No Limit

Property Types:

  Single Family, Single Family w/ Acr, Condo, Townhouse – All Properties – All Properties – All Properties

Bedrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Bathrooms:

  0 – No Limit

Year Built:

  0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: Cam Johnson

 

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Mar. 2012 – May. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

May. 13

Apr. 13

% Change

May. 13

May. 12

% Change

Mar. 13 to May. 13

Mar. 12 to May. 12

% Change

For Sale

1984

1873

5.9%

1984

2128

-6.8%

1916

2096

-8.6%

Sold

871

759

14.8%

871

635

37.2%

746

633

17.9%

Pended

993

958

3.7%

993

761

30.5%

926

738

25.5%

 

Average Price per SQFT (Mar. 2012 – May. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

May. 13

Apr. 13

% Change

May. 13

May. 12

% Change

Mar. 13 to May. 13

Mar. 12 to May. 12

% Change

Avg. Sq. Ft. Price

111.8

105.8

5.7%

111.8

99.9

11.9%

108.4

94.2

15.1%

 

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Mar. 2012 – May. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

May. 13

Apr. 13

% Change

May. 13

May. 12

% Change

Mar. 13 to May. 13

Mar. 12 to May. 12

% Change

Avg CDOM

53

65

-18.5%

53

92

-42.4%

66

93

-29%

Sold/Orig LP Diff. %

98

98

0%    

98

97

1%

98

96

2.1%

 

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Mar. 2012 – May. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

May. 13

Apr. 13

% Change

May. 13

May. 12

% Change

Mar. 13 to May. 13

Mar. 12 to May. 12

% Change

Avg. Active Price

319

315

1.3%

319

274

16.4%

309

269

14.9%

Avg. Sold Price

230

215

7%

230

212

8.5%

222

190

16.8%

 

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Mar. 2012 – May. 2013)

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month

Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago

Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago

 

May. 13

Apr. 13

% Change

May. 13

May. 12

% Change

Mar. 13 to May. 13

Mar. 12 to May. 12

% Change

Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)

2

2

-7.7%

2

3

-32%

3

3

-22.4%

 

 

 

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*All reports are published June 2013, based on data available at the end of May 2013. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Intermountain MLS. Intermountain MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Intermountain MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

 

Posted on June 10, 2013 at 10:43 am
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized

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