Boise (Ada County) Real Estate Market Report for November 2012

November was another very encouraging month in the Boise real estate market. While the market sales volume slowed somewhat versus October, which it typically does due to the seasonal nature of home sales, supply remains very low and prices continued to surge almost across the board.  Overall the average sales price in Ada County was $209,000, a 20.1% increase from 2011!

Only short sales showed a decrease in prices versus last year (-2.1%).  The product mix is dominated by “traditional” sales and new construction (78.3% of all sales), continuing the dramatic shift away from distressed sales that started about a year ago.  Bank owned properties represent just 6.4% of all sales and only 2% of all inventory.  Those number are down 65-70% from last year.  Similarly, the number of short sales sold is down 17.3% versus +60% for new construction sales.  The inventory of available short sales is also down -35.1%.

Overall inventories remain at just 3.5 months based on the current rate of sales.  Some buyers are having a hard time finding suitable options in this environment. Sellers are on average getting 97% of their asking price, a slight improvement over last year.

The table below gives a pretty good summary of the current trends.  Please note percentages are November 2012 vs 2011 and I do not include mobile/manufactured homes. For a graphical view of the overall number please see the graphs at the bottom of this report.

 

Type

# Sold

% +/-

% of Total Sold

# For Sale

% +/-

% of Total For Sale

$/SF

% +/-

Average Sold Price

% +/-

Days on Market

% +/-

Months Inventory

All

594

+10.4

100

2051

-14.8

100

$102

+15.3

$209K

+20.1

79

-26.2

3.5

Non Distress

465

+53.0

78.3

1556

-1.8

75.9

$108

+9.4

$227K

+11.8

62

-30.3

3.3

REO

38

-69.4

6.4

41

-66.7

2.0

$78

+8.5

$150K

+14.5

41

-35.9

1.1

Short Sale

91

-17.3

15.3

454

-35.1

22.1

$75

+1.7

$141K

-2.1

130

-20.7

5.0

New Construction

128

+60.0

21.5

633

-3.2

30.9

$120

+8.2

$265K

+15.7

94

-24.2

4.9

 

I also thought it would interesting to look at how various parts of Ada County are doing as far as prices.  Not surprisingly the areas with the highest prices and those that were somewhat less affected when the market crashed are showing more modest, but still strong, price increases while areas that were hardest hit have bounced back stronger.  For example, North and East Boise had by far the highest prices and the historically lowest rate of distressed sales and prices there are up 11.2%, while on the Bench and in Star, both very hard hit by distressed sales prices are up 25.4 and 26.7% respectively.  Only Eagle (+7.4%) and SE Boise (+8.4%)are not showing double digit increases.  For this comparison, in order to smooth out the swings caused by relatively small sample size I compared quarterly results versus the same three months last year (Sept.-November).

 

Area

Average $ Price Per Square Foot

Change vs Same Quarter 2011

North and East End

142

+11.2

Southeast Boise

117

+8.4

Boise Bench

86

+25.4

South and SW Boise

88

+13.6

West Boise and Garden City

87

+16.0

Northwest Boise

109

+13.9

Eagle

115

+7.4

Star

91

+26.7

SE, SW Meridian & Kuna

92

+16.8

NE & NW Meridian

95

+13.5

 

So with these impressive price increases the questions that begs is are we headed for another bubble?  Is this too much too fast?

Hard to say.  But here are a couple things to consider.  Prices in many areas dropped 50% or more from their 2006 peak.  While what was initially seen as a needed correction went so much further than anyone hoped or imagined, did prices drop too low?  Maybe not at the time but given the current, albeit shaky, recovery do prices need to correct up now?  Corrections tend to happen faster than sustained growth or downturns so maybe the market can tolerate the current hyper growth for a short period.  At some point soon, to avoid swinging too far, the market will need to moderate hopefully settling in at somewhere near the 5% annual appreciation that many feel is sustainable in a healthy market.  I hope so!

Thanks, as always for your comments, questions, and most of all your referrals.  2012 has been a strong year for our market and for me personally so I am looking forward to continued success for all of us in 2013.

Cheers!

Cam Johnson

Realtor®

Windermere Access Realty

1412 W Idaho St.

Suite 120

Boise, ID 83702

208-258-2222 Office

208-283-3664 Cell

208-258-2230 Fax

 

camjohnson@windermere.com

Posted on December 10, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Cam Johnson | Category: Uncategorized

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